The landslide victory of the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) in the legislative elections reflects the electorate's yearning for a better economy, but the key to the direction of Taiwan's economic policies lies with the presidential election in March and the subsequent Cabinet reshuffle, economists said yesterday.
Polaris Research Institute president Liang Kuo-yuan (梁國源) said the election reflected a message that voters wanted to send to politicians -- "It's the economy, stupid."
"Taiwan's survival hinges on the economy, and time is running out," Liang said.
PHOTO: WANG PEI-HUA, TAIPEI TIMES
"I would interpret the KMT's win with such an overwhelming margin as an `F' from voters disappointed with the performance of the Democratic Progressive Party [DPP] over the past eight years, especially over the economy," said Chou Tein-chen (
Though there was no consensus on whether the legislative poll would bring a pendulum effect to the presidential election, analysts agreed that the outcome of the election in March is still the key to future economic policies.
Taiwan's economic growth of 4.4 percent last year was the lowest among 20 Asian countries, according to a report issued last week by the UN Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific.
Experts such as Standard & Poor's credit analyst Tan Kim-eng (
"Lawmaking remains difficult in the absence of bipartisan cooperation. And if the legislative and presidential elections this year yield another `split government,' it could result in continued political paralysis at a time when the government will be facing important policy decisions," Singapore-based Tan wrote in a report released last week.
Kung Ming-hsin (龔明鑫), vice president of the Taiwan Institute of Economic Research (TIER, 台灣經濟研究院), said people are tired of the stalemate caused by bipartisan politics over the past eight years.
"The worst is over, because the impasse in the last parliament was the result of a reluctant opposition unable to accept its failure in the 2004 election," Kung said.
"If the KMT is to win the presidential race too, that means the voters are now giving the KMT very high expectations to improve the economy. But if the DPP won the presidential election, that would mean voters are keen to maintain Taiwan's integrity as a country," Kung said.
Besides Taiwan's policies toward China, what economic issues played a role in the legislative elections?
Most economists interviewed by the Taipei Times said they didn't find much difference between the KMT and the DPP with regard to other economic polices, and they called on the two parties to give clearer pictures of their policies for the coming election.
National Chengchi University professor Steve Lin (林祖嘉) agreed.
He said the KMT's policy of opening the market to more mainland Chinese tourists would boost the service sector and help improve the serious unemployment problem among low-skilled workers in southern Taiwan.
TIER's Kung said both the DPP's Frank Hsieh and KMT presidential candidate Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九) were moving towards a more "open" economic policy.
"Hsieh plans to improve the investment environment by giving more tax initiatives here to lure funds that have flown to China back to Taiwan, while Ma opts to open markets and push for direct flights ? Both are goals to boost economic growth," Kung said.
Chou said that the DPP lacked economic talent in its Cabinet.
"Even though DPP presidential candidate Frank Hsieh (謝長廷) also champions an open policy towards Taiwan-China relations ... The voters vying for a better economy will definitely take [the lack of economic talent] into consideration when they vote in March," Chou said.
Liang stressed that the future government's ability to implement a policy framework is still the most important factor in improving the economy.
"That would depend on the success in negotiations on direct links and tourism with mainland authorities, the ability of the Cabinet members and the conciliation of internal resistance for such market openings," Liang said. "I would not say that Ma and Hsieh are the same on the liberalization path."
"At least Ma doesn't have the internal resistance issues on mainland policies that Hsieh has to deal with if he wants to deliver his campaign promises," Liang said.
"Although we are concerned about the possibility that an overwhelming win in both the legislative and the presidential race might tilt the balance of power too far, this is a good sign that the democracy in Taiwan is teaching politicians a lesson -- if they do a lousy job without caring for the people's needs, they will be out of their job sooner or later," Chou said.
ANOTHER EMERGES: The CWA yesterday said this year’s fourth storm of the typhoon season had formed in the South China Sea, but was not expected to affect Taiwan Tropical Storm Gaemi has intensified slightly as it heads toward Taiwan, where it is expected to affect the country in the coming days, the Central Weather Administration (CWA) said yesterday. As of 8am yesterday, the 120km-radius storm was 800km southeast of Oluanpi (鵝鑾鼻), Taiwan’s southernmost tip, moving at 9kph northwest, the agency said. A sea warning for Gaemi could be issued tonight at the earliest, it said, adding that the storm is projected to be closest to Taiwan on Wednesday or Thursday. Gaemi’s potential effect on Taiwan remains unclear, as that would depend on its direction, radius and intensity, forecasters said. Former Weather Forecast
As COVID-19 cases in Japan have been increasing for 10 consecutive weeks, people should get vaccinated before visiting the nation, the Centers for Disease Control (CDC) said. The centers reported 773 hospitalizations and 124 deaths related to COVID-19 in Taiwan last week. CDC Epidemic Intelligence Center Director Guo Hung-wei (郭宏偉) on Tuesday said the number of weekly COVID-19 cases reported in Japan has been increasing since mid-May and surpassed 55,000 cases from July 8 to July 14. The average number of COVID-19 patients at Japan’s healthcare facilities that week was also 1.39 times that of the week before and KP.3 is the dominant
The Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) working group for Taiwan-related policies is likely to be upgraded to a committee-level body, a report commissioned by the Mainland Affairs Council (MAC) said. As Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平) is increasingly likely to upgrade the CCP’s Central Leading Group for Taiwan Affairs, Taiwanese authorities should prepare by researching Xi and the CCP, the report said. At the third plenary session of the 20th Central Committee of the CCP, which ended on Thursday last week, the party set a target of 2029 for the completion of some tasks, meaning that Xi is likely preparing to
US-CHINA TRADE DISPUTE: Despite Beijing’s offer of preferential treatment, the lure of China has dimmed as Taiwanese and international investors move out Japan and the US have become the favored destinations for Taiwanese graduates as China’s attraction has waned over the years, the Ministry of Labor said. According to the ministry’s latest income and employment advisory published this month, 3,215 Taiwanese university graduates from the class of 2020 went to Japan, surpassing for the first time the 2,881 graduates who went to China. A total of 2,300 graduates from the class of 2021 went to the US, compared with the 2,262 who went to China, the document showed. The trend continued for the class of 2023, of whom 1,460 went to Japan, 1,334 went to