Last month's earthquake off southern Taiwan that killed two people and injured 42 has revived a debate on earthquake prediction as several residents claimed they had predicted it because they heard strange sounds or had chest pains.
The most popular among these earthquake "predictors" is Lee Chen-chi (
Chen said that several days before the Dec. 26 quake struck off Hengchun (
He e-mailed his predictions to friends and Professor Chu Tzu-hau (
The quake, measuring 6.7 on the Richter scale, destroyed 15 houses and damaged undersea cables, disrupting telecommunications across Asia.
Lee said he realized he could predict earthquakes after a magnitude 7.3 quake on Sept. 21, 1999, which left 2,415 dead, 11,305 injured and 400,000 homeless.
"After that quake, I realized that whenever I heard muffled sounds, an earthquake would occur in the next few days, so I began to e-mail my predictions to the Seismological Observation Center [SOC]," Lee said.
After several seemingly correct predictions, Lee became a national celebrity with reporters following him every day, asking him if he had heard strange sounds and when a big quake might hit.
Three dozen other earthquake predictors soon emerged, claiming they could predict earthquakes because they could also hear strange sounds or pick up other signs.
In response, the SOC banned unofficial earthquake predictions in 2005.
Violators of the ban face a NT$1 million (US$30,000) fine.
SOC section chief Hsiao Nai-chi (蕭乃祺) said that most of the predictions were unreliable and inconsistent, "so we must rely on scientific data from our equipment," he said.
The SOC, relying on 70 monitoring stations, can report an earthquake five to 10 minutes after it has struck Taiwan or off Taiwan's coast.
But many Taiwanese like Chu Tzu-hau say that animals, human beings and scientific equipment can predict earthquakes.
"A month and a half before the Sept. 21, 1999, earthquake hit Taiwan, Chinese space scientists had predicted it, but they did not notify Taiwan until after the quake due to strained Beijing-Taipei ties," the geologist said.
The Chinese scientists had noticed -- through satellite thermal imaging -- a 2oC to 6oC rise in temperature of the ocean surface around Taiwan, he said.
Chu added that among three dozen people in Taiwan who say they can predict earthquakes, five to six of them are "accurate" in their predictions.
These include Lee and Chiu Tai-yuan, 66, a dry-cleaning store owner living in Banciao, Taipei County.
Chiu said that he had developed the ability to predict earthquakes while meditating in 1984.
"My body went through a transformation," he said, referring to belief in an energy that flows through everything that exists.
"All the channels of the qi opened, and my body became a cosmos. When one part aches, I can tell an earthquake will happen in the coming days, and I can tell you the location," he said.
"My head is south, my feet are north, my right side is east and my left side is west. So if I have a pain near my head, it indicates a quake will hit southern Taiwan. And a pain toward my feet means a quake will hit Japan," he said.
On Jan. 3, Chiu called the DPA news agency, saying he had received signals indicating an earthquake was going to hit eastern Taiwan in about three days, "but it'll be a small one."
A magnitude-4.3 quake hit eastern Taiwan two days later.
Small earthquakes regularly occur around Taiwan, especially along the east coast.
About 200 quakes of at least magnitude 4 jolt the nation each year, with around a dozen of them measuring above magnitude 5.
On Jan. 4 and Jan. 5, Chiu said he was "receiving signals" again and "knew" a large quake was going to occur north of Taiwan, possibly in Japan.
He know it would be an undersea earthquake because it was a dull pain, he said.
On Saturday, a magnitude-8.2 undersea earthquake occurred near Japan's northern islands.
The earthquake triggered two small tidal waves.
The Meteorological Agency in Japan and the Pacific Tsunami Warning Center had both warned that the quake could result in a 1m high tsunami.
‘DENIAL DEFENSE’: The US would increase its military presence with uncrewed ships, and submarines, while boosting defense in the Indo-Pacific, a Pete Hegseth memo said The US is reorienting its military strategy to focus primarily on deterring a potential Chinese invasion of Taiwan, a memo signed by US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth showed. The memo also called on Taiwan to increase its defense spending. The document, known as the “Interim National Defense Strategic Guidance,” was distributed this month and detailed the national defense plans of US President Donald Trump’s administration, an article in the Washington Post said on Saturday. It outlines how the US can prepare for a potential war with China and defend itself from threats in the “near abroad,” including Greenland and the Panama
A magnitude 4.9 earthquake struck off Tainan at 11:47am today, the Central Weather Administration (CWA) said. The hypocenter was 32.3km northeast of Tainan City Hall at a depth of 7.3km, CWA data showed. The intensity of the quake, which gauges the actual effect of a seismic event, measured 4 in Tainan and Chiayi County on Taiwan's seven-tier intensity scale, the data showed. The quake had an intensity of 3 in Chiayi City and County, and Yunlin County, while it was measured as 2 in Kaohsiung, Nantou County, Changhua County, Taitung County and offshore Penghu County, the data showed. There were no immediate reports of
The Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) is maintaining close ties with Beijing, the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) said yesterday, hours after a new round of Chinese military drills in the Taiwan Strait began. Political parties in a democracy have a responsibility to be loyal to the nation and defend its sovereignty, DPP spokesman Justin Wu (吳崢) told a news conference in Taipei. His comments came hours after Beijing announced via Chinese state media that the Chinese People’s Liberation Army’s Eastern Theater Command was holding large-scale drills simulating a multi-pronged attack on Taiwan. Contrary to the KMT’s claims that it is staunchly anti-communist, KMT Deputy
RESPONSE: The government would investigate incidents of Taiwanese entertainers in China promoting CCP propaganda online in contravention of the law, the source said Taiwanese entertainers living in China who are found to have contravened cross-strait regulations or collaborated with the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) could be subject to fines, a source said on Sunday. Several Taiwanese entertainers have posted on the social media platform Sina Weibo saying that Taiwan “must be returned” to China, and sharing news articles from Chinese state media. In response, the Mainland Affairs Council (MAC) has asked the Ministry of Culture to investigate whether the entertainers had contravened any laws, and asked for them to be questioned upon their return to Taiwan, an official familiar with the matter said. To curb repeated