A recent US invitation for China to observe its military drill in Guam may have an adverse impact on Taiwan-US military exchanges in the long term, the Mainland Affairs Council (MAC) said on Thursday.
The council was referring to an invitation extended to China by US Pacific Commander Admiral William Fallon to send officers to observe the US military exercise -- codenamed "Operation Brave Shield" -- which was held from June 17 to 19.
To the surprise of some pundits, Chinese Defense Minister Cao Gangchuan (
In its report this month on the latest developments in China, MAC said the engagement had not only caused a US-China strategic race in the Asia-Pacific but also created room for China to affect US-Taiwan military exchanges.
The event was also seen by major international news media as the most positive sign of improvement in US-China military relations since the spy plane standoff over the South China Sea in 2001, the MAC report said.
According to the report, the US invitation had at least three strategic purposes -- expanding bilateral military exchanges, hoping to secure a subsequent invitation from China to observe Chinese military exercises and gauging each other's military strength through the exchanges.
Most China watchers analyzed the US invitation from the perspective of strategic competition between Beijing and Washington.
On the surface, they said, the US appeared to favor avoiding conflict with China by enhancing mutual trust through military exchanges.
In reality, they said, the US intended to get a direct look at China's military prowess and strategic goals, which they said may contribute to the US' evaluation of its East Asia military restructuring plan and its global strategic goals.
While the US motives were understandable, the MAC report said, China's acceptance of the US invitation came as a surprise.
Beijing was fully aware that the US was unlikely to aid China in its military modernization drive. What the US was concerned about was the "management" rather than "cooperation" aspect of their security relations, the report said.
According to the MAC's analysis, the most important reason behind China's consent to the US invitation lay in its hope that the US would eventually cease military engagements with Taiwan, including sales of advanced weapons.
In the past, the report said, the US had adopted a "parallel" strategy in dealing with military exchanges with Taiwan and China. Increased US-China military exchanges might allow China to tilt the balance, enabling China to have a hand in "manipulating" Taiwan-US military relations, the report said.
By all accounts, the report said, the US-China "date" at the Guam exercise marked an important milestone in their bilateral military relations, which was worthy of Taiwan's attention and that of other neighboring countries.
Meanwhile, Yang Chih-heng (楊志恆), a Tamkang University associate professor, said the presence of Chinese military officers aboard a US warship to observe a military drill indeed marked a significant breakthrough in US-China ties.
Noting that the main purpose of the US invitation was to forge mutual trust, Yang said he believed that such a move had an even deeper strategic implication by inspiring their respective political leaders to improve bilateral military relations.
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