In a bid to cement their role as leading contenders for the 2008 presidential elections, Taipei Mayor Ma Ying-jeou (
Although Ma seems to have secured his grip to be the KMT's nominee for the 2008 poll by winning a landslide victory over Legislative Speaker Wang Jin-pyng (
MENDING FENCES
"Ma will have a hard time reconciling with most of the party members and tackling the tough work of integrating the pan-blues, including the People First Party [PFP], said Hsu Yung-ming (徐永明), a political analyst at Academia Sinica.
Other analysts predicted that Ma may end up with a Pyrrhic victory if he doesn't straighten out his difficulties with Wang.
"Ma will have big troubles if he can't appease Wang," said Chien Yu-yen (簡余晏), a political reporter and TV commentator.
"Ma has to be aware of the fact that Wang is capable of making him a mere figurehead in the KMT given Wang's experience and familiarity with party affairs," Chien said.
Hsu said Ma will have to fight hand-to-hand with the DPP, including President Chen Shui-bian (
There is no doubt that Ma and Su are the two main hopefuls for the 2008 election at this moment. Their first head-to-head fight will be the December elections for county commissioners and mayors in which they will be campaign for their party's nominees.
The election result will have a direct impact on their positions in their parties and will determine whether they will be considered qualified to represent the parties in 2008.
If Ma can calm the internal unrest in the KMT and get other key members to help him win the year-end elections, then his status as a "common leader" in the pan-blue camp will be certain and his winning the nomination for 2008 a given, analysts said.
SU'S LEARNING CURVE
The same is true for Su. While Su may be his party's chief, he does not have many government resources -- at least not as many as his main rival within the DPP, Premier Frank Hsieh (謝長廷).
Su has said that he took the DPP chairmanship to "prepare himself" for 2008. In fact, each local election is crucial to Su in terms of building up his power and cachet, as well as increasing his chance of capturing the 2008 nomination. The year-end elections are the only stage that Su has at this point, analysts said.
If Su messes up the year-end elections, then he will have to say goodbye to the Presidential Office for good," Chien said.
"The New Tide Faction (
Coincidentally, both Ma and Su both have to compete with strong opponents in governmental posts for the 2008 nominations.
Ma has to contend with Wang and Su must outperform Hsieh.
GOOD REPORTS
Both Ma and Su have won praise for their handing of local governments.
Su earned a pretty good reputation for his efficiency when he was Taipei County commissioner.
Despite the occasional criticism of his performance as Taipei mayor, Ma has largely enjoyed unflagging support in Taipei.
"It is not a controversial evaluation that Su has outshone Ma in terms of local government achievements. However, political achievements usually do not equal voters' support in Taiwan's elections," Chien said.
"Voters sometimes cast their ballots depending on whether they like or dislike a candidate as well as many other factors," he said.
"In terms of this point, I think the one who can win those voters who take a more neutral stance [middle-of-the-road voters] will stand out in 2008," he said.
ANOTHER EMERGES: The CWA yesterday said this year’s fourth storm of the typhoon season had formed in the South China Sea, but was not expected to affect Taiwan Tropical Storm Gaemi has intensified slightly as it heads toward Taiwan, where it is expected to affect the country in the coming days, the Central Weather Administration (CWA) said yesterday. As of 8am yesterday, the 120km-radius storm was 800km southeast of Oluanpi (鵝鑾鼻), Taiwan’s southernmost tip, moving at 9kph northwest, the agency said. A sea warning for Gaemi could be issued tonight at the earliest, it said, adding that the storm is projected to be closest to Taiwan on Wednesday or Thursday. Gaemi’s potential effect on Taiwan remains unclear, as that would depend on its direction, radius and intensity, forecasters said. Former Weather Forecast
As COVID-19 cases in Japan have been increasing for 10 consecutive weeks, people should get vaccinated before visiting the nation, the Centers for Disease Control (CDC) said. The centers reported 773 hospitalizations and 124 deaths related to COVID-19 in Taiwan last week. CDC Epidemic Intelligence Center Director Guo Hung-wei (郭宏偉) on Tuesday said the number of weekly COVID-19 cases reported in Japan has been increasing since mid-May and surpassed 55,000 cases from July 8 to July 14. The average number of COVID-19 patients at Japan’s healthcare facilities that week was also 1.39 times that of the week before and KP.3 is the dominant
The Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) working group for Taiwan-related policies is likely to be upgraded to a committee-level body, a report commissioned by the Mainland Affairs Council (MAC) said. As Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平) is increasingly likely to upgrade the CCP’s Central Leading Group for Taiwan Affairs, Taiwanese authorities should prepare by researching Xi and the CCP, the report said. At the third plenary session of the 20th Central Committee of the CCP, which ended on Thursday last week, the party set a target of 2029 for the completion of some tasks, meaning that Xi is likely preparing to
US-CHINA TRADE DISPUTE: Despite Beijing’s offer of preferential treatment, the lure of China has dimmed as Taiwanese and international investors move out Japan and the US have become the favored destinations for Taiwanese graduates as China’s attraction has waned over the years, the Ministry of Labor said. According to the ministry’s latest income and employment advisory published this month, 3,215 Taiwanese university graduates from the class of 2020 went to Japan, surpassing for the first time the 2,881 graduates who went to China. A total of 2,300 graduates from the class of 2021 went to the US, compared with the 2,262 who went to China, the document showed. The trend continued for the class of 2023, of whom 1,460 went to Japan, 1,334 went to