The Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) knew that the 2008 presidential election will be no easy fight against the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) from the moment that KMT chairman-elect Ma Ying-jeou (
The result of the KMT chairmanship election on Saturday is seen as a sure sign of a Ma presidential candidacy in 2008, especially in light of the absolute thrashing he gave to his opponent, Legislative Speaker Wang Jin-pyng (王金平), who was long known for his strong local support network and highly developed political skills.
Although Ma did not declare that he would campaign for the presidency in 2008, according to the latest poll conducted by the Chinese-language newspaper the United Daily News, about 65 percent of those surveyed said that they would support Ma in running for the presidential election in 2008, while about 90 percent of KMT members said they would vote for Ma and almost 75 percent of People First Party (PFP) members thought Ma would make a good presidential candidate.
And most worrying for the pan-greens, about 35 percent of DPP supporters also said they would support of Ma in the 2008 election, which demonstrates that Ma can attract support among voters who take a more neutral attitude toward politics.
That is the reason why DPP officials and lawmakers are shaking in their boots over Ma, and regard him as a formidable foe.
"Pan-blue supporters have been hoping for a person that would be able to lead them to victory for a long time, and Ma is no doubt their chosen one, judging from the election outcome," DPP Legislator Lee Wen-chung (
But while the KMT's choice for 2008 presidential candidate seems almost certain, the DPP has yet to firmly advance its own prospective candidate. President Chen Shui-bian (陳水扁) has tried to strike a balance between his two most likely successors, Premier Frank Hsieh (謝長廷) and DPP Chairman Su Tseng-chang (蘇貞昌), in order to maintain his own control over the DPP, said Chien Yu-yen (簡余晏), a senior political reporter and TV commentator.
"Su and Hsieh have been competing for the presidential candidacy for 2008, but no matter who becomes the DPP's candidate, one thing for sure: Hsieh and Su will have to be united if they want to try to take on Ma, a candidate that enjoys incredibly high confidence among pan-blue supporters, and also some pan-green supporters," Chien said. "There is no room for Hsieh and Su to fight with each other."
Academia Sinica political analyst Hsu Yung-ming (
"Now that Ma will become the KMT chairman, he is obligated to campaign for the KMT's nominee, [Legislator] Chou Hsi-wei (
The degree of success of the campaigns for the county commissioner nominees could decide the political destinies of the prospective presidential candidates, Hsu said.
Meanwhile, political analysts also suggested that the DPP had better give up its strategy of criticizing Ma, because it could cause a backlash against the DPP.
"Many incidents happened in the past that have once again proved that criticizing Ma is a strategy that will only hurt the DPP, because the mass media in Taiwan -- be they print or broadcast -- are so fond of Ma that they have tried hard to defend even his mistakes," Chien said.
Chien predicted that Ma will adopt a cooperative attitude with the DPP to build up his image as a strong and pragmatic leader, which will leave Su and Hsieh with little room to challenge Ma and will attract swing votes.
But Ma's Mainlander heritage is also a factor that could work to the DPP's advantage, analysts said.
Shih Cheng-feng (
"If the KMT, led by Ma, follows in the steps of the New Party, then a voter will vote for the KMT just because he or she is a Mainlander. With this situation, the result would be more favorable to the DPP given that Mainlanders are still a minority compared with local Taiwanese," Shih said.
Among the successful politicians who are Mainlanders, PFP Chairman James Soong (宋楚瑜) is one of the few national-level politicians that could convince large numbers of Taiwanese to vote for him, because of his record as Taiwan's provincial governor, Hsu said. However, Soong still lost the presidential election when he ran in 2000.
"I am highly skeptical as to whether Ma can do better in winning local Taiwanese votes than Soong, since he has had no nationwide political experience, like Soong," Hsu said. "For the DPP, the next presidential election will be no easy fight. Likewise, Ma's victory also means the beginning of a succession of trials on the road to the presidency."
DEEPER REVIEW: After receiving 19 hospital reports of suspected food poisoning, the Taipei Department of Health applied for an epidemiological investigation A buffet restaurant in Taipei’s Xinyi District (信義) is to be fined NT$3 million (US$91,233) after it remained opened despite an order to suspend operations following reports that 32 people had been treated for suspected food poisoning, the Taipei Department of Health said yesterday. The health department said it on Tuesday received reports from hospitals of people who had suspected food poisoning symptoms, including nausea, vomiting, stomach pain and diarrhea, after they ate at an INPARADISE (饗饗) branch in Breeze Xinyi on Sunday and Monday. As more than six people who ate at the restaurant sought medical treatment, the department ordered the
A strong continental cold air mass and abundant moisture bringing snow to mountains 3,000m and higher over the past few days are a reminder that more than 60 years ago Taiwan had an outdoor ski resort that gradually disappeared in part due to climate change. On Oct. 24, 2021, the National Development Council posted a series of photographs on Facebook recounting the days when Taiwan had a ski resort on Hehuanshan (合歡山) in Nantou County. More than 60 years ago, when developing a branch of the Central Cross-Island Highway, the government discovered that Hehuanshan, with an elevation of more than 3,100m,
Taiwan’s population last year shrank further and births continued to decline to a yearly low, the Ministry of the Interior announced today. The ministry published the 2024 population demographics statistics, highlighting record lows in births and bringing attention to Taiwan’s aging population. The nation’s population last year stood at 23,400,220, a decrease of 20,222 individuals compared to 2023. Last year, there were 134,856 births, representing a crude birth rate of 5.76 per 1,000 people, a slight decline from 2023’s 135,571 births and 5.81 crude birth rate. This decrease of 715 births resulted in a new record low per the ministry’s data. Since 2016, which saw
SECURITY: To protect the nation’s Internet cables, the navy should use buoys marking waters within 50m of them as a restricted zone, a former navy squadron commander said A Chinese cargo ship repeatedly intruded into Taiwan’s contiguous and sovereign waters for three months before allegedly damaging an undersea Internet cable off Kaohsiung, a Liberty Times (sister paper of the Taipei Times) investigation revealed. Using publicly available information, the Liberty Times was able to reconstruct the Shunxing-39’s movements near Taiwan since Double Ten National Day last year. Taiwanese officials did not respond to the freighter’s intrusions until Friday last week, when the ship, registered in Cameroon and Tanzania, turned off its automatic identification system shortly before damage was inflicted to a key cable linking Taiwan to the rest of
RSS