Mon, May 09, 2005 page2

• Poll a report card on parties' performance

  LITMUS TEST The purpose of the National Assembly is puzzling to most people, so those who go to the polls this Saturday will vote along partisan lines, analysts say

  • By Jewel Huang / STAFF REPORTER
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  The National Assembly elections this Saturday have already evolved from a focus on constitutional reforms to an assessment of political parties' performance in the wake of visits to China by opposition leaders, political analysts say.

  Although the constitutional reforms voted on by the National Assembly representatives will have a profound impact on the country, most of people are unfamiliar or puzzled by the process, according to polls conducted by the Central Election Commission, Taiwan Thinktank and the Democratic Party (DPP) in recent weeks.

  On average, about 50 percent of those polled said that they do not know much about the election and only 40 percent of the surveyed said that they will vote.

  "The National Assembly elections have fallen out of focus after Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) Chairman Lien Chan (連戰) and People First Party (PFP) Chairman James Soong (宋楚瑜) went to China," Hsu Yung-ming (徐永明), a researcher at the Research Center for Humanities and Social Sciences at Academia Sinica said yesterday.

  "To most voters, the issue of the election is too complicated to understand. Therefore, some political parties have decided not to talk about constitutional reforms and instead appeal to their emotions stirred up by Lien and Soong's trips to China," Hsu said.

  This is the message the Taiwan Solidarity Union (TSU) is using in its campaigning. The party accuses Lien and Soong of conspiring with China to bring about unification with Taiwan.

  TSU candidates, however, do not talk about their opposition to many of the proposed constitutional amendments.

  Wang Yeh-li (王業立), a political science professor at Tunghai University, said that the parties know that voters will probably vote for the political party they usually vote for, and will not vote based on a party or candidate's position on constitutional amendments.

  "That's because most of the voters don't know what the election is for, let alone have a grasp of the pros and cons of constitutional amendments," Wang said.

  In fact, the DPP seems to be the only party that cares about the election, and have held campaign activities. The opposition parties are too preoccupied with their chairmen's China trips.

  However, the TSU might get some votes from traditional DPP supporters, given that President Chen Shui-bian (陳水扁) has flip-flopped on his position on Lien and Soong's China trips, which has enraged many of the DPP supporters -- who have vowed not support the DPP this time.

  "I think the election outcome will be a measure of voter preferences for political parties and their take on cross-strait policies, rather than their positions on the constitutional reform," Hsu said.

  But Hsu does not think the DPP will face a devastating loss in the elections, nor will the TSU see a surge in popularity, since the DPP is doing a good job garnering voter support at campaign rallies.

  "Generally speaking, an election is more favorable to the political party that has a strong organizational ability in each electoral district," said Emile Sheng (盛治仁), a Soochow University political science professor. "Moderate voters will probably not vote in this election in droves, so the party that can mobilize the largest number of its partisan supporters will win the election."
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