Wed, Apr 20, 2005 page3

• Is the enemy of the KMT's enemy really its friend?

  `JOURNEY OF PEACE' The chairman of the Chinese Nationalist Party will likely be given concessions by Beijing, but it may not make a difference in cross-strait ties

  • By Joy Su / STAFF REPORTER
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  The newly forged reconciliation between former foes the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) and the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), a political friendship that is soon to be sealed with the highest-level meeting between the two parties in over 50 years, demonstrates the idiom that your enemy's enemy is your friend, analysts said yesterday.

  But in this case, it is unclear whether enemies at home remain enemies abroad, for the opposition parties have been defiant in the face of accusations that they have inappropriately taken state affairs into their own hands. Instead, they claim to be doing what the government has not or cannot do.

  In fact, KMT Chairman Lien Chan's (連戰) planned trip to China has been touted by the party as a "journey of peace," and as such one that will bring a breakthrough in relations with China. The Chinese-language daily China Times reported yesterday that Lien plans to request, during his meeting with Chinese President Hu Jintao (胡錦濤), the withdrawal of missiles aimed at Taiwan, World Health Organization (WHO) membership for Taiwan, and the lifting of travel bans on Chinese tourists in Taiwan. The report said that Hu is slated to give Lien a clear response during the meeting.

  Democratic Progressive Party's (DPP) Chinese affairs department director Tung Li-wen (董立文) observed earlier this month that Lien would not be advertising his trip as "a journey of peace" unless he was certain that China would be handing him some sort of trophy to take home.

  "For China, all political parties that don't support Taiwanese independence will be rewarded. To what degree ... that's a wild guess," Alexander Huang (黃介正), a professor of strategic studies at Tamkang University's Graduate Institute of American Studies, said yesterday.

  Chao Chien-min (趙建民), a political science professor at the National Chengchi University, agreed, saying that the government wasn't confident enough, and that Lien's visit could not "de-governmentalize" dialogue.

  "The opposition party is limited in what it can do," Chao said.

  Despite Lien's role as the main opposition leader, there has been talk of late that Beijing could make some sort of concession on the military front. Tung noted earlier this month that the concession could involve the withdrawal of missiles.

  Tung said that such a move would not be unprecedented, citing then Chinese president Jiang Zemin's (江澤民) offer during a 2001 tete-a-tete with US President George W. Bush to withdraw China's short-range mobile ballistic missiles deployed within striking distance of Taiwan in exchange for a reduction in the quality and quantity of US arms sales to the country.

  Huang said however, that talk of retracting missiles aimed at Taiwan, if it came up during Lien's visit, would remain just that.

  "It'd just be lip service ... there's no verification mechanism. so we would never know [if the missiles were withdrawn]," Huang said, admitting however that the move could earn Beijing credit with Washington. He added that militarily, the removal of the missiles would not make any substantial difference.

  Whether the gesture could sway the EU towards lifting its arms embargo against China was unclear.

  Chao said that the EU was determined to lift the ban anyway. He said that the EU had only temporarily put off plans to lift the ban in light of Beijing's "Anti-Secession" Law, adding that the ban was going to be trashed sooner or later regardless of whether China withdrew any missiles.

  Huang said that it would put the US Department of State in a hard spot, but indicated that it was unclear which way the decision would go with the UK chairing the European Council.

  As for whether Lien's "journey of peace" could negatively impact cross-strait relations as the ruling party has charged, analysts said increased interaction between Taiwan and China best served cross-strait relations.

  "Because of talk of constitutional reform and referendums, China adopted the Anti-Secession Law ... and then as a result we ban China's correspondents in Taiwan. It's a vicious cycle, and so the more dialogue there is across the Strait the better," Chao said.

  Huang added that Beijing knew exactly where it stood with Lien.

  "China understands clearly that, no matter how big [the concession], it is only to Lien, to his name, or the KMT. They know the government is in the DPP's hands, and the DPP might not recognize it [the concession]" Huang said.
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