Taiwan would be wrong to devote the money the Chen Shui-bian (陳水扁) government wants to spend on US diesel-powered subma-rines, but should devote its re-sources to such things as hardening potential targets of missile attacks and retaining air superiority in the Taiwan Strait, a leading US military analyst with close connections to the US defense establishment says.
The analyst, retired rear admiral Michael McDevitt, made his comments at a Washington seminar on Thursday discussing Taiwan's situation in the wake of the legislative elections.
He also warned Taipei against declaring independence, saying such a move could involve the US in the long-term defense of Taiwan against retribution from China.
McDevitt spoke disparagingly about the plan to spend more than US$12 billion on eight diesel submarines, noting that "Taiwan is talking about investing 66 percent of its special [defense] budget on eight submarines that won't even show up for another decade."
He also criticized the subs that Taiwan is considering buying from Washington as incapable of meeting the purpose Taiwan wants them to perform.
"These subs have a search rate that is so slow, they will cover such a small body of water, that that's the wrong way to look for the other guy's submarines," he told a seminar hosted by the George Washington University's Center for Strate-gic and International Relations.
He also said that the Pentagon would be happy if Taiwan reneged on the submarine purchase. That would run counter to a strenuous and prolonged effort by the Pentagon to force Taiwan to buy the subs, which would likely be built by US defense contractors.
"I'll bet you," McDevitt said, "given the fact that it has caused so much problem for the [US] Department of Defense, if Taiwan was tomorrow to walk into the Department of Defense and say, `We've decided to withdraw our request for submarines,' you would hear quiet applause all over the Department of Defense.
"They'd breath a sigh of relief: `Thank God, that would solve our problem.' That's my speculation," McDevitt said.
Noting that Chen has maintained that Taiwan would declare independence if it were attacked by China, McDevitt cautioned that maintaining independence would be harder than declaring it.
"All efforts by Taipei has been focused on how to become independent, but none of it is focused on how to sustain independence," he said.
If Taiwan declared indepen-dence, "you would have a situation in which the United States would either have to sign up with a security arrangement that protects that independent Taiwan essentially in perpetuity, or you would have to get Beijing to agree to it."
"More thought," he cautioned, "has to be placed on how do you sustain independence once you've declared it," he said.
On other Taiwanese defense areas, McDevitt said Taipei's main strategy should be maintaining air superiority against China in the Taiwan Strait.
He said that Taiwan should also boost defenses against a Chinese missile attack by hardening potential targets against such strikes: "Pouring concrete," as he put it.
"Remember, a ballistic missile is a relatively small warhead. So unless it lands in the middle of the room, the blast damage is not going to be really great. So, hardening does really make a difference," he said.
McDevitt advised Taiwan's government against relying on any aggressive strikes against China as a deterrent strategy.
"It's a terrible strategic choice and its going to waste a lot of money," he said.
"If you argue that lobbing a few missiles into downtown Shanghai is going to deter Beijing, think about it for a minute," he said.
China realizes that any attack on Taiwan will cost it dearly in-ternationally, he said. So an attack on Shanghai, for instance, is not going to make a difference.
"If they have not been deterred by all the bad things that are going to happen to them, this is silly and a waste of money," McDevitt said.
Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) Chairman Eric Chu (朱立倫), spokeswoman Yang Chih-yu (楊智伃) and Legislator Hsieh Lung-chieh (謝龍介) would be summoned by police for questioning for leading an illegal assembly on Thursday evening last week, Minister of the Interior Liu Shyh-fang (劉世芳) said today. The three KMT officials led an assembly outside the Taipei City Prosecutors’ Office, a restricted area where public assembly is not allowed, protesting the questioning of several KMT staff and searches of KMT headquarters and offices in a recall petition forgery case. Chu, Yang and Hsieh are all suspected of contravening the Assembly and Parade Act (集會遊行法) by holding
PRAISE: Japanese visitor Takashi Kubota said the Taiwanese temple architecture images showcased in the AI Art Gallery were the most impressive displays he saw Taiwan does not have an official pavilion at the World Expo in Osaka, Japan, because of its diplomatic predicament, but the government-backed Tech World pavilion is drawing interest with its unique recreations of works by Taiwanese artists. The pavilion features an artificial intelligence (AI)-based art gallery showcasing works of famous Taiwanese artists from the Japanese colonial period using innovative technologies. Among its main simulated displays are Eastern gouache paintings by Chen Chin (陳進), Lin Yu-shan (林玉山) and Kuo Hsueh-hu (郭雪湖), who were the three young Taiwanese painters selected for the East Asian Painting exhibition in 1927. Gouache is a water-based
Taiwan would welcome the return of Honduras as a diplomatic ally if its next president decides to make such a move, Minister of Foreign Affairs Lin Chia-lung (林佳龍) said yesterday. “Of course, we would welcome Honduras if they want to restore diplomatic ties with Taiwan after their elections,” Lin said at a meeting of the legislature’s Foreign Affairs and National Defense Committee, when asked to comment on statements made by two of the three Honduran presidential candidates during the presidential campaign in the Central American country. Taiwan is paying close attention to the region as a whole in the wake of a
OFF-TARGET: More than 30,000 participants were expected to take part in the Games next month, but only 6,550 foreign and 19,400 Taiwanese athletes have registered Taipei city councilors yesterday blasted the organizers of next month’s World Masters Games over sudden timetable and venue changes, which they said have caused thousands of participants to back out of the international sporting event, among other organizational issues. They also cited visa delays and political interference by China as reasons many foreign athletes are requesting refunds for the event, to be held from May 17 to 30. Jointly organized by the Taipei and New Taipei City governments, the games have been rocked by numerous controversies since preparations began in 2020. Taipei City Councilor Lin Yen-feng (林延鳳) said yesterday that new measures by