Taiwan would be wrong to devote the money the Chen Shui-bian (陳水扁) government wants to spend on US diesel-powered subma-rines, but should devote its re-sources to such things as hardening potential targets of missile attacks and retaining air superiority in the Taiwan Strait, a leading US military analyst with close connections to the US defense establishment says.
The analyst, retired rear admiral Michael McDevitt, made his comments at a Washington seminar on Thursday discussing Taiwan's situation in the wake of the legislative elections.
He also warned Taipei against declaring independence, saying such a move could involve the US in the long-term defense of Taiwan against retribution from China.
McDevitt spoke disparagingly about the plan to spend more than US$12 billion on eight diesel submarines, noting that "Taiwan is talking about investing 66 percent of its special [defense] budget on eight submarines that won't even show up for another decade."
He also criticized the subs that Taiwan is considering buying from Washington as incapable of meeting the purpose Taiwan wants them to perform.
"These subs have a search rate that is so slow, they will cover such a small body of water, that that's the wrong way to look for the other guy's submarines," he told a seminar hosted by the George Washington University's Center for Strate-gic and International Relations.
He also said that the Pentagon would be happy if Taiwan reneged on the submarine purchase. That would run counter to a strenuous and prolonged effort by the Pentagon to force Taiwan to buy the subs, which would likely be built by US defense contractors.
"I'll bet you," McDevitt said, "given the fact that it has caused so much problem for the [US] Department of Defense, if Taiwan was tomorrow to walk into the Department of Defense and say, `We've decided to withdraw our request for submarines,' you would hear quiet applause all over the Department of Defense.
"They'd breath a sigh of relief: `Thank God, that would solve our problem.' That's my speculation," McDevitt said.
Noting that Chen has maintained that Taiwan would declare independence if it were attacked by China, McDevitt cautioned that maintaining independence would be harder than declaring it.
"All efforts by Taipei has been focused on how to become independent, but none of it is focused on how to sustain independence," he said.
If Taiwan declared indepen-dence, "you would have a situation in which the United States would either have to sign up with a security arrangement that protects that independent Taiwan essentially in perpetuity, or you would have to get Beijing to agree to it."
"More thought," he cautioned, "has to be placed on how do you sustain independence once you've declared it," he said.
On other Taiwanese defense areas, McDevitt said Taipei's main strategy should be maintaining air superiority against China in the Taiwan Strait.
He said that Taiwan should also boost defenses against a Chinese missile attack by hardening potential targets against such strikes: "Pouring concrete," as he put it.
"Remember, a ballistic missile is a relatively small warhead. So unless it lands in the middle of the room, the blast damage is not going to be really great. So, hardening does really make a difference," he said.
McDevitt advised Taiwan's government against relying on any aggressive strikes against China as a deterrent strategy.
"It's a terrible strategic choice and its going to waste a lot of money," he said.
"If you argue that lobbing a few missiles into downtown Shanghai is going to deter Beijing, think about it for a minute," he said.
China realizes that any attack on Taiwan will cost it dearly in-ternationally, he said. So an attack on Shanghai, for instance, is not going to make a difference.
"If they have not been deterred by all the bad things that are going to happen to them, this is silly and a waste of money," McDevitt said.
‘DENIAL DEFENSE’: The US would increase its military presence with uncrewed ships, and submarines, while boosting defense in the Indo-Pacific, a Pete Hegseth memo said The US is reorienting its military strategy to focus primarily on deterring a potential Chinese invasion of Taiwan, a memo signed by US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth showed. The memo also called on Taiwan to increase its defense spending. The document, known as the “Interim National Defense Strategic Guidance,” was distributed this month and detailed the national defense plans of US President Donald Trump’s administration, an article in the Washington Post said on Saturday. It outlines how the US can prepare for a potential war with China and defend itself from threats in the “near abroad,” including Greenland and the Panama
The Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) is maintaining close ties with Beijing, the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) said yesterday, hours after a new round of Chinese military drills in the Taiwan Strait began. Political parties in a democracy have a responsibility to be loyal to the nation and defend its sovereignty, DPP spokesman Justin Wu (吳崢) told a news conference in Taipei. His comments came hours after Beijing announced via Chinese state media that the Chinese People’s Liberation Army’s Eastern Theater Command was holding large-scale drills simulating a multi-pronged attack on Taiwan. Contrary to the KMT’s claims that it is staunchly anti-communist, KMT Deputy
RESPONSE: The government would investigate incidents of Taiwanese entertainers in China promoting CCP propaganda online in contravention of the law, the source said Taiwanese entertainers living in China who are found to have contravened cross-strait regulations or collaborated with the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) could be subject to fines, a source said on Sunday. Several Taiwanese entertainers have posted on the social media platform Sina Weibo saying that Taiwan “must be returned” to China, and sharing news articles from Chinese state media. In response, the Mainland Affairs Council (MAC) has asked the Ministry of Culture to investigate whether the entertainers had contravened any laws, and asked for them to be questioned upon their return to Taiwan, an official familiar with the matter said. To curb repeated
Myanmar has turned down an offer of assistance from Taiwanese search-and-rescue teams after a magnitude 7.7 earthquake struck the nation on Friday last week, saying other international aid is sufficient, the National Fire Agency said yesterday. More than 1,700 have been killed and 3,400 injured in the quake that struck near the central Myanmar city of Mandalay early on Friday afternoon, followed minutes later by a magnitude 6.7 aftershock. Worldwide, 13 international search-and-rescue teams have been deployed, with another 13 teams mobilizing, the agency said. Taiwan’s search-and-rescue teams were on standby, but have since been told to stand down, as
RSS