US President George W. Bush's nomination of National Security Advisor Condoleezza Rice to replace Secretary of State Colin Powell will signal no change in US policy toward Taiwan, but will fill the post with someone who believes Washington should play a more active role in pushing Beijing and Taipei toward a resumption of cross-strait dialogue, according to observers in Washington.
The appointment will put in place at the State Department an official who has been Bush's closest foreign policy aide, who is fully in tune with Bush's thinking on China and Taiwan, and whose presence could reduce the chance of mixed messages emanating from Washington to Taiwan.
Significantly, when Bush criticized President Chen Shui-bian (
"Condi Rice and Bush were on the same page last December. That is a policy that Condi Rice supported," said Bonnie Glaser, a senior associate at the Center For Strategic and International Studies.
"What we are going to see is a lot of continuity. Condi really un-derstands what the president is thinking, and she will proceed to implement that," Glaser said.
Irrespective of who is in charge at the State Department, it is Bush who will decide on foreign policy issues, said Michael Fonte, the Democratic Progressive Party's Washington liaison.
"Bush is completely in charge of the US approach to Taiwan. It is really his decision that has put Taiwan to the side and has made China the more important player," he said.
"I see continuity on how the US will continue to lean on Taiwan to cool its jets on issues of independence and sovereignty, and there will be continued pressure for dialogue and discussion," Fonte said.
Hopefully, he added, such dialogue will be on the basis of no preconditions to the talks.
Robert Hathaway, the director of the Asia program at the Wood-row Wilson Center, agrees.
"I don't think you can expect any particular changes. At the end of the day, the US president makes policy," he said.
"In Taiwan's case, Secretary Powell was simply following the direction of the White House," Hathaway said.
However, Rice might be more energetic in trying to push for a resumption of cross-strait dialogue.
"I think we will see Condi supporting a policy of doing more, to try to encourage both sides to think more creatively about how to stabilize the relationship, how to restart dialogue, how to start the three links and confidence building measures," Glaser said.
During her tenure as national security advisor, Rice regularly made her offices open to delegations from Taiwan for discussions of bilateral issues.
While she did not often attend the meetings, her top Asian experts always did, and the Taiwanese visitors universally came away satisfied that their views were listened to and had a positive effect.
Rice's deputy Stephen Hadley usually welcomed Taiwanese visitors who described meetings with him as very comfortable. Hadley has been named by Bush to replace Rice in the security advisor post.
Observers point to Rice's visit to Beijing in July, in which she pointedly and firmly rebuffed Chinese efforts to get Washington to reduce US arms sales to Taiwan. The Bush administration did not expect Beijing to make the arms sales issue the centerpiece of their negotiating strategy.
China felt that with its new leverage with the Bush administration over the war on terrorism and other international issues, it could get Washington to relent on arms sales to Taiwan -- a strategy that turned out to be a miscalculation.
"Rice recognized this and told them [the arms sales decision] does not reflect a shift in US policy toward Taiwan. It reflects the decision Bush made in April 2001 to sell the arms to Taiwan," said one observer close to US policymaking.
During her visit, coming about a month after Chen's inaugural address, Rice refused to back down on arms sales, telling the Chinese leaders that the US felt it was on the right track with its policy.
However, Rice did try to advance the resumption of cross-strait dialogue.
"She planted a seed in the mind of the Chinese leaders. She said, `What can the US do to facilitate the resumption of talks?' The idea was to have the Chinese leaders and Taiwan start thinking about what to do after the [legislative] election season," Glaser said.
‘DENIAL DEFENSE’: The US would increase its military presence with uncrewed ships, and submarines, while boosting defense in the Indo-Pacific, a Pete Hegseth memo said The US is reorienting its military strategy to focus primarily on deterring a potential Chinese invasion of Taiwan, a memo signed by US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth showed. The memo also called on Taiwan to increase its defense spending. The document, known as the “Interim National Defense Strategic Guidance,” was distributed this month and detailed the national defense plans of US President Donald Trump’s administration, an article in the Washington Post said on Saturday. It outlines how the US can prepare for a potential war with China and defend itself from threats in the “near abroad,” including Greenland and the Panama
The Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) is maintaining close ties with Beijing, the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) said yesterday, hours after a new round of Chinese military drills in the Taiwan Strait began. Political parties in a democracy have a responsibility to be loyal to the nation and defend its sovereignty, DPP spokesman Justin Wu (吳崢) told a news conference in Taipei. His comments came hours after Beijing announced via Chinese state media that the Chinese People’s Liberation Army’s Eastern Theater Command was holding large-scale drills simulating a multi-pronged attack on Taiwan. Contrary to the KMT’s claims that it is staunchly anti-communist, KMT Deputy
RESPONSE: The government would investigate incidents of Taiwanese entertainers in China promoting CCP propaganda online in contravention of the law, the source said Taiwanese entertainers living in China who are found to have contravened cross-strait regulations or collaborated with the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) could be subject to fines, a source said on Sunday. Several Taiwanese entertainers have posted on the social media platform Sina Weibo saying that Taiwan “must be returned” to China, and sharing news articles from Chinese state media. In response, the Mainland Affairs Council (MAC) has asked the Ministry of Culture to investigate whether the entertainers had contravened any laws, and asked for them to be questioned upon their return to Taiwan, an official familiar with the matter said. To curb repeated
Myanmar has turned down an offer of assistance from Taiwanese search-and-rescue teams after a magnitude 7.7 earthquake struck the nation on Friday last week, saying other international aid is sufficient, the National Fire Agency said yesterday. More than 1,700 have been killed and 3,400 injured in the quake that struck near the central Myanmar city of Mandalay early on Friday afternoon, followed minutes later by a magnitude 6.7 aftershock. Worldwide, 13 international search-and-rescue teams have been deployed, with another 13 teams mobilizing, the agency said. Taiwan’s search-and-rescue teams were on standby, but have since been told to stand down, as