Asserting authority over islands is becoming a headache for China's powerful communist leaders and their frustrations are mounting as they watch Taiwan inch toward independence and Hong Kong's desire for more democracy.
Beijing vented ire against Taiwan on Friday, vowing to do more than just stand idly by if political chaos in the country persists over the hotly disputed presidential election.
China also showed every sign of breaking a promise not to interfere in Hong Kong by saying it was time to end confusion over how the island city will choose its leader and legislature.
"China wants some measure of stability and predictability. Things must not get out of control," said Hong Kong political commentator Andy Ho (
One solution to calm things down in Hong Kong and Taiwan could be to play the patriotism card to unite Chinese. That chance came when seven activists were arrested by Japanese authorities after they landed last week on a chain of disputed and uninhabited rocky islands, claimed by China and Taiwan as the Diaoyus and by Japan as the Senkakus.
"The Diaoyu islands are the single issue of a common interest and concern to the mainland, Hong Kong and Taiwan," said one political analyst who asked not to be identified.
"It is to remind everyone that we have something in common," he said. "Even if the mainland isn't good, it's better than Japan. Anti-Japanese sentiment is a card the mainland can play at any time."
Chinese newspapers and television broadcasts have been filled with reports berating Japan and bemoaning the fate of the seven, deported to Shanghai on Friday. Beijing even allowed protesters to gather at the Japanese embassy and burn the Japanese flag.
"This is to deflect the attention of mainlanders from the Taiwan elections," said another analyst.
"This is also to stir up patriotism among Hong Kong residents," the analysts said.
China's 1.3 billion people have heard scarcely a word about Taiwan's third, and most closely fought, presidential elections on March 20. Only on Friday did the Taiwan Affairs office issued a harshly worded statement, saying it would not tolerate turmoil in the country.
Even that angry statement was more restrained than usual: a signal of China's dilemma, caught between hotheads eager to spit fire at the island as it edges toward declaring sovereignty and cooler brains urging restraint to prevent an anti-China backlash.
Neither camp can point to great success.
"You can say it's either bluster or it's a serious warning," Susan Shirk, professor at the University of California at San Diego and deputy assistant secretary of state under US president Bill Clinton, said of the latest warning.
"I don't think we should discount the fact that it might be a serious warning because right now Beijing has been so quiet and accommodating before the election that they probably feel that they need to establish the threat to use force credibly again," she said.
China retains the right to use force to recover Taiwan. Recent weeks have seen few such threats.
"I do have some concern that this might be more than just bluster. Right now they have a need to restore the credibility of their threat to use force because they have been so quiet before the election," Shirk said.
That is when the disputed rocks in the East China Sea become useful. China may have 500 missiles arrayed against Taiwan but it can hardly use them without triggering a US response.
Playing to the patriotic gallery is one of the few arrows in China's quiver which it can use far more easily, since it focuses on the resentment against Japan that dates back to World War II.
"There is a limit on what China can do about Taiwan. If it aims more missiles at the island, it will only give [President] Chen Shui-bian (陳水扁) more ammunition," said Ma Ngok (馬嶽), social science professor at the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology.
"It can't do much to win hearts in Taiwan," he said.
And while Beijing is no doubt deeply concerned about the re-election of Chen, it must be relieved that his 0.2 percent margin of victory over Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) Chairman Lien Chan (
Nervous that calls for more democracy in Hong Kong will not only seep into the mainland, China can cite Taiwan's electoral confusion to back moves unveiled on Friday to bring Hong Kong back into line.
"The chaotic situation gives China a perfect excuse to tell Hong Kong not to pursue democracy," said Lo Chih-cheng (
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