Due to the unique structure of their electorates and the long-term reign of the Chinese Nation-alist Party (KMT) administration, Hualien and Taitung counties in eastern Taiwan may continue to be the pan-blue alliance's strongholds in next year's presidential poll.
Situated to the east of the Central Mountain Range, Hualien and Taitung counties have long been called the "back of the mountain." They are also dubbed by environmentalists as the "last clean soil on the island" thanks to their low development and tourism-oriented industries.
TAIPEI TIMES FILE PHOTO
People of the two counties have remained loyal to the KMT and People First Party (PFP) over the years. One of the most recent examples of this was the by-election for the Hualien County commissioner in August last year.
TAIPEI TIMES FILE PHOTO
In the three-way race, former KMT lawmaker Hsieh Shen-shan (
Hsieh received 51.4 percent of the total cast, while You gained 28.9 percent, or 41,508 votes, and the independent Wu Kuo-tung (
Hsieh attributed his triumph to his long-term dedication to local affairs. Hsieh, a native of Hualien, served as a KMT lawmaker representing the county between 1973 and 1994. He chaired the Council of Labor Affairs from 1994 to 1997 and was promoted to secretary-general of the Cabinet in 1999 before the KMT's half-century rule came to an end in 2000.
Although the county by-election was branded by many as a litmus test of the presidential election, Hsieh, however, said that he saw it more as a poll of the DPP's performance here.
The DPP had flown in such political heavyweights as President Chen Shui-bian (
"People here knew that I've been here for the past 30 years and that I'm not just someone who they knew little of and came here to give them empty promises," Hsieh said in his second-floor office of the Hualien County Government building.
In addition to the KMT's long-term relationship with local people and politicians, Hsieh said that the unique constitution of the country's electorate plays a pivotal role in various elections.
"Traditionally, mainlanders, who make up about a quarter of the county's population, are long-term KMT supporters as are Hakka and Aborigines, who each account for another quarter of the county's population," he said.
During the five-way race for the 2000 presidential poll, the KMT's Lien Chan (
Hsieh predicted that the joint ticket of the pan-blue bloc, featuring Lien and Soong, would manage to canvass a similar number of votes in Hualien as they did four years ago.
"Although many things could happen before the election, I suspect the basic voting structure may not change to much if the candidates trumpet platforms meeting the needs of the electorate," he said.
In the last presidential poll, Lien received over 19 percent of the votes in the county and Soong almost 59 percent, while Chen garnered about 21 percent. The turnout was about 75 percent.
Hsieh, who will head the Lien-Soong campaign office in Hualien, said that their campaign strategy was to simply compare the DPP-led government's achievements with those made during the KMT administration.
"Basically, the DPP administration has literally done nothing for the county," Hsieh said. "The expansion project of the Hualien airport is a continuous project spearheaded by Lien during his stint as the premier and the freeway connecting Suao, Ilan County and Hualien still has a long way to go."
Despite a resolution made by the county council to continue the construction of the Suao-Hualien freeway, the county is soliciting public opinions and is scheduled to make public its final decision by mid-January when a regional opinion poll will be conducted.
Despite his pledge to kick off the project by the end of the year, Premier Yu Shyi-kun granted the county three months to decide whether to construct the freeway in response to the request of Hsieh, who was under immense pressure from local environmentalists.
Commenting on the DPP's ambition to garner 35 percent of the total votes in Hualien, Hsieh said that it sounded like "a feasible goal."
"I don't think it's fair to say that the efforts made by the DPP over the years to court Hakka and Aboriginal voters came to nothing," Hsieh said. "It does make a difference to set up the Council of Hakka Affairs, a Hakka TV channel, a Hakka radio station, Hakka schools in universities and an Aboriginal-language radio channel."
DPP lawmaker Lu Po-chi (
"While mainlanders and Aborigines have been known for their loyalty to the blue camp, I hope we can solicit 20,000 to 30,000 more votes from Hakka voters this time but it may require a hell lot of work and efforts," he said.
And the strategy? Appealing to the people's conscience, he said.
"I believe people with a sound mind and conscience should and would realize that the KMT has been offering nothing but lip service over the years, while the DPP means what it says and puts its promises into practice," he said.
turning back the tide in taitung
The KMT's long-term political monopoly in Taitung County has made the county's teachers and civil servants defer to the authoritarian administration over the years.
"The private sector, whose clientele is mostly the civil sector, do not dare to develop a close relationship with the DPP for fear that they might lose their business with the KMT conglomerate," said Winston Yu (
Conservativism is prevalent and bureaucracy is not foreign to the county of 243,000 people.
"Obscurantism prevails in a place where it is conservative and underdeveloped," Yu said.
"Take the last presidential election for example, constituents were unequivocally convinced by the blue camp's theory that China would launch an attack against Taiwan if they dared to give their vote to the green camp."
In a place where Hokkien take up the largest part of the population -- about 40 percent -- and the Aborigines account for 30 percent, it is rather difficult for the DPP to break into a domain where it has long been dominated by the KMT.
Twenty percent of the county's population is Hakka, while the mainlanders make up the remaining 10 percent of the population.
In addition to the unique structure of the constituency, the DPP has also failed to recruit new local intellectuals or people from the higher social echelons into its fold over the years. Most of its supporters are low down on the social ladder and those who vaguely identify themselves with the DPP's pro-independence rhetoric.
Another reason for the DPP's low popularity here is its lack of sufficient funds, talent and resources. But even after the DPP came to power in 2000, it still paid little attention to the county's plight.
"The county's average household income ranks as the country's second worst, but the DPP-led government has made little effort to improve the situation," Yu said.
"When people are having problems bringing food to their table, they don't care about writing a new constitution or holding a referendum asking China to dismantle its ballistic missiles because the issues are simply too far-fetched and quixotic."
Compounding the problem is the infighting among the DPP's local factions.
According to Yu, the DPP has two factions in Taitung: the one led by the DPP chapter and the other supporting Taitung Mayor Lai Koon-cheng (
"They're too preoccupied with jockeying with each other to care about people's needs," Yu said. "We hear so little about their visions for the county for the next five, 10, 15 years. Bu when elections come, we're showered with all kinds of promises. They sound alright but they're also short-lived."
Despite all the drawbacks, Yu said that he expects to see the DPP's Chen-Lu ticket to solicit 40 percent of the county's votes this time, or 17 percentage points more than they did in the last presidential poll.
Chen garnered about 23 percent of the vote in the county four years ago, while Lien received over 23 percent and Soong more than 52 percent. The turnout rate was nearly 69 percent.
Yu said that he has seen more and more grassroots chiefs such as township wardens, village administrators, county councilors and chairmen of farmers and fishermen's associations come out to throw their weight behind the DPP and the county itself is opening-up.
To canvass more votes for the upcoming presidential election, Yu said that the DPP might want to consider concentrating 25 percent of its campaign efforts developing local contacts; another 25 percent on instilling the local electorate with an identification with Taiwan; and the remaining 50 percent on promoting its vision for the future of eastern Taiwan.
"They should make people believe that although the DPP may not have been 100 percent perfect over the past four years, it'll do much better in the next four years if given a chance and that the KMT will bring them nothing but despair," he said. "They should also educate the people that to choose the DPP is not equal to choosing war and that they'll be much better off if the DPP continues to take the helm."
Yu also pointed out the county's long-term problem of venality and vote-buying, a phenomenon resulting from the lack of a potent opposition party in local politics because of the KMT's 50-year reign.
"It's unfortunate and pathetic to see that 23, including the council speaker, out of 31 county councilors have been found guilty of meddling in the bidding process of local construction projects one way or another," Yu said. "It's not an unusual practice for local politicians to favor certain contractors and pocket a large portion of the budget earmarked for construction projects."
Taitung County Commissioner Hsu Ching-yuan (
"When people think of the `back mountain,' they think of the people who are poorly educated, chewing betel nut and susceptible to bribes. I can tell you this: I didn't buy any single vote while I was running for the county commissioner [in December 2001] nor did I treat any of my constituents to any free meals or waste my contributor's money on any campaign flags," Hsu said.
"This year's presidential election has to be clean. Those candidates who intend to buy votes will definitely be looked down upon and deserted by the electorate."
Analyzing the county's strong backing of the blue camp candidates, Hsu said that it has a lot to do with Soong, who served as Taiwan's provincial governor between 1993 and 1998.
"When he was the provincial governor, he came down to Taitung and Hualien at least once a month," Hsu said. "When he was here, he didn't stay inside the office but instead he stayed outside to meet with the people and solve their problems."
Although the voting intention in the county may not be to the advantage of the DPP, Chang Chia-chung (
"At least we see a goal that we all aspire to reach and the future we all look forward to," he said. "Now everyone, including the opposition parties, is talking about the identity of Taiwan, which was taboo during the authoritarian KMT era."
Chang projected that the DPP stands a good chance of getting 40 percent of the votes in the county as the local chapter has won more support by recruiting more party members, especially Hakka and Aborigines, since last year's presidential poll.
In addition to recruiting more people to the party's fold, Chang said that the DPP should try to reach out to more remote areas such as mountainous areas resided by indigenous people.
"A secret of the KMT's widespread popularity at the grassroots level is that it penetrates into these sort of places by setting up service centers in tiny indigenous reserves and villages and developing a close relationship with various social groups such as women's associations, veterans' organizations, farmers' and fishermen's associations and water reservation clubs," Chang said.
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