Taipei Times: Have the recent Byzantine intrigues underpinning China's power transition to the so-called fourth generation of leaders come as a surprise to you?
Larry M. Wortzel: The intrigue about the power transfer has not surprised me. I expected that the senior leaders would want to make sure -- for themselves, for their family and for those that worked for them -- that they are free from being accused of corruption and economic crimes. So one result of the 16th party congress is that each of the senior leaders has someone in place to protect him and watch his back. Hu Jintao's (胡錦濤) flexibility is severely constrained by the fact that Jiang Zemin (江澤民) remains mostly behind the scenes and that Li Peng (李鵬) and Zhu Rongji (朱鎔基) will continue to have great influence.
PHOTO: GOERGE TSORNG, TAIPEI TIMES
TT: What's your interpretation of Jiang Zemin's move to retain his post as the chairman of the new Central Military Commission (CMC)?
Wortzel: Certainly I expected that to happen. It's very clear to most observers in the US who know the People's Liberation Army that he would probably do that.
The fact is that the CCP leaders, because they are so influential in the party, continue to have influence until they are dead. And that influence will be taken into consideration in times of crisis. You saw what happened during [the] Tiananmen [massacre], when the advice of senior leaders suddenly became very critical. You saw that during the EP-3 incident as well as the 1995 and 1996 tensions over Taiwan.
That's the way their system is ... It may not be as left-wing revolutionary as it was, but it is still a very strong Leninist party that respects party seniority and insists on party discipline.
TT: Although you say the CCP will remain a very strong Leninist party, the latest party congress moved to officially approve Jiang's "three represents" theory and added capitalist-style ideology to the CCP party charter -- further paving the way for the admission of capitalists into the CCP. Some even said the CCP would begin its transformation from authoritarianism to more democratic tendencies. To what extent is this prediction far-fetched?
Wortzel: They didn't do it in Singapore. The People's Action Party in Singapore is still a very authoritarian Leninist party. Singapore has the second freest economy in the world, but it doesn't have freedom of speech, it doesn't have freedom of the press and it doesn't have freedom to assemble. Singapore is a comfortable place to live, but the ruling party remains an authoritarian party.
Certainly if you look at Hong Kong, it is less free than it was under the British. Day by day it becomes less politically free and yet it still has the freest economy in the world. And I think that's the goal of the CCP.
The CCP, however, will have its own problems because there are still people in China who are communists and believe in communism. They believe in communism the way Christians believe in the resurrection of Christ ... In the end, they have created a great tension inside their own party by doing that.
TT: Some say the composition of the nine-man Politburo Standing Committee -- with five from the Jiang-led Shanghai clique -- indicated that the seeds of a vehement factional struggle between Hu and the Shanghai clique have been sown. What's your take on this?
Wortzel: I think Hu Jintao is going to be severely challenged. If he has independent ideas of his own, he will be constrained in his ability to implement them. It's not like a general election in a free country where voters clearly give a mandate to certain leaders. I am sure he does have ideas of his own, but he has to work within a collective leadership, and he has to take their ideas into consideration.
TT: Professor Kenneth Lieberthal has argued that China's new leadership realize they have many tough issues coming up that will require large expenditures, so there is no way they are going to seek confrontation with the US. Do you agree with his argument?
Wortzel: I think that's too bipolar an analysis and it tends to analyze everything that China does in terms of US-China relations, which is a weakness of someone who has never done anything but study China.
The fact of the matter is that there are still great tensions between China and the US that the new leadership would prefer not to confront because they want investment and stable relations. I think that helps in the near term. But just last week there was a dangerous intercept of another US navy reconnaissance plane by the Chinese military. So that action by itself could create confrontation. We don't know how the new leadership will really handle its commitment or what it says it would do about the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction and missiles. If they do the usual thing, which is pass a new regulation, organize a new department and then continue to sell weapons and missiles to rogue states, there will be confrontation.
TT: Some say that the new Chinese leadership will want to stick to the "one China" principle while endeavoring to accelerate economic interactions with Taiwan as part of Beijing's main tactic to bring Taiwan into the fold. Do you agree with this observation?
Wortzel: I think these guys can walk and chew gum at the same time ... They are able to coordinate a fairly sophisticated policy. They've continued to increase their military capabilities and continued both their missiles and their arms purchases. That is one aspect of their policy not only toward Taiwan but also toward the Asia-Pacific. At the same time, they want to invite foreign investment, investment from Taiwan and trade. That improves their economy and it creates structures which make it perhaps more desirable for Taiwan to contemplate some changed relationship with the mainland.
Many analysts here in Taiwan tend to think that every decision is undertaken to affect something with regard to Taiwan. I think they overemphasize the importance of Taiwan in overall Chinese policy. These guys are going to act to ensure that they continue to run the People's Republic of China.
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