The race to represent Kaohsiung in the legislature is more likely to be decided by a candidate's personal image than campaign issues -- though traditional methods of persuasion such as vote-buying may continue to be a factor, political observers say.
Voters on Dec. 1 will pick 11 of 36 candidates to represent Kaohsiung in the legislature.
The image factor
TAIPEI TIMES FILE PHOTO
Political observers say that many of the city's 1 million voters are middle-class workers and are generally under-educated and easily agitated by ethnic tensions and ideological clashes.
That means voters are more likely to pay attention to a candidate's image and personal credentials, rather than traditional campaign themes.
"Most Kaohsiung voters are blue-collar and their voting preference is more candidate or party-oriented than campaign issue-oriented," said Liao Da-chi (
Vote-buying
"There are, however, also traditional voters who are easily persuaded through [vote-buying]."
Liao said that vote-buying in Kaohsiung could be as rampant as in past elections, though the DPP government has been keeping a close eye on campaign irregularities.
But one problem is that the money to buy votes was obtained more than six months ago, which makes it difficult for police to track irregularities now, the professor said.
Still, Cheng Kuang-feng (
"To the DPP's advantage, the justice ministry's crackdown on possible vote-buying in southern Taiwan has frightened off some voters from accepting bribes," Cheng said.
"[Vote-buying] is down by at least half."
In addition, with the KMT out of power, that party's former method of using state resources to buy votes no longer works.
Also, the economic downturn has led many candidates to be less extravagant in their campaign spending, Cheng said.
Cheng estimated that this year's election turnout would decrease from about 82 percent to around 70 percent since some voters would not go to the polls because they were not tipped.
Economic, political quagmires
Both Liao and Cheng hope the DPP's election prospects are good enough to maintain five seats, although the party is vulnerable to criticism triggered by the city's high unemployment rate and the country's economic woes.
"However, the party has successfully convinced voters in Kaohsiung that the opposition's obstruction in the legislature has lead to the current political impasse," Liao said.
The KMT, however, believes that the ruling party should still be held responsible for the political deadlock.
"I feel that voters are very indifferent [to the elections] this time. They thought they got rid of the KMT which they disliked, but it turns out that they are now deeply disappointed with the ruling DPP," said KMT legislator Chiang Yi-wen (江綺雯) from Kaohsiung's southern constituency, who is now running for a seat in the northern district.
The KMT is also confident of its election prospects, saying it hopes to grab at least four seats.
"After the party's reregistration our supporters have been agglomerated," said Tien Ching-yi (
A divided opposition
The DPP's Cheng, however, said that the opposition bloc -- including the KMT, the People First Party (PFP) and the New Party -- has fielded too many candidates and may siphon off one another's votes, risking any gain in the bloc's number of seats.
Among opposition candidates, the PFP's Chiu Yi (
"The party is highly vulnerable to Hsieh Chi-ta (
Wang, nevertheless, added that the party still aims to gain more votes and secure supporters for the long term.
First timers
As for the newly-formed Taiwan Solidarity Union (TSU), it, like the PFP, faces its first election after since its founding.
"Our success lies in whether [former president] Lee Teng-hui's (
Going solo
Half of the city's legislative candidates are running independently. It may be too early to predict their election prospects, but observers say that they certainly pose threats to other party candidates.
Liao said that, in the southern district, former legislator Ju Gao-jeng (朱高正) has been very good at making news and grabbing attention, while Lin Kuan-hei (林崑海), the owner of Sanlih TV (三立電視), has the most campaign resources.
In the northern district, both Wang Tein-ging (
"We may be surprised to see some dark horses being elected from the independent candidates' poll," Liao added.
This year's contest promises to be the toughest. Thirty-six candidates are vying for 11 seats; the city's 1 million eligible voters -- divided into southern and northern constituencies -- will elect five and six legislators, respectively.
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