The race to represent Kaohsiung in the legislature is more likely to be decided by a candidate's personal image than campaign issues -- though traditional methods of persuasion such as vote-buying may continue to be a factor, political observers say.
Voters on Dec. 1 will pick 11 of 36 candidates to represent Kaohsiung in the legislature.
The image factor
TAIPEI TIMES FILE PHOTO
Political observers say that many of the city's 1 million voters are middle-class workers and are generally under-educated and easily agitated by ethnic tensions and ideological clashes.
That means voters are more likely to pay attention to a candidate's image and personal credentials, rather than traditional campaign themes.
"Most Kaohsiung voters are blue-collar and their voting preference is more candidate or party-oriented than campaign issue-oriented," said Liao Da-chi (
Vote-buying
"There are, however, also traditional voters who are easily persuaded through [vote-buying]."
Liao said that vote-buying in Kaohsiung could be as rampant as in past elections, though the DPP government has been keeping a close eye on campaign irregularities.
But one problem is that the money to buy votes was obtained more than six months ago, which makes it difficult for police to track irregularities now, the professor said.
Still, Cheng Kuang-feng (
"To the DPP's advantage, the justice ministry's crackdown on possible vote-buying in southern Taiwan has frightened off some voters from accepting bribes," Cheng said.
"[Vote-buying] is down by at least half."
In addition, with the KMT out of power, that party's former method of using state resources to buy votes no longer works.
Also, the economic downturn has led many candidates to be less extravagant in their campaign spending, Cheng said.
Cheng estimated that this year's election turnout would decrease from about 82 percent to around 70 percent since some voters would not go to the polls because they were not tipped.
Economic, political quagmires
Both Liao and Cheng hope the DPP's election prospects are good enough to maintain five seats, although the party is vulnerable to criticism triggered by the city's high unemployment rate and the country's economic woes.
"However, the party has successfully convinced voters in Kaohsiung that the opposition's obstruction in the legislature has lead to the current political impasse," Liao said.
The KMT, however, believes that the ruling party should still be held responsible for the political deadlock.
"I feel that voters are very indifferent [to the elections] this time. They thought they got rid of the KMT which they disliked, but it turns out that they are now deeply disappointed with the ruling DPP," said KMT legislator Chiang Yi-wen (江綺雯) from Kaohsiung's southern constituency, who is now running for a seat in the northern district.
The KMT is also confident of its election prospects, saying it hopes to grab at least four seats.
"After the party's reregistration our supporters have been agglomerated," said Tien Ching-yi (
A divided opposition
The DPP's Cheng, however, said that the opposition bloc -- including the KMT, the People First Party (PFP) and the New Party -- has fielded too many candidates and may siphon off one another's votes, risking any gain in the bloc's number of seats.
Among opposition candidates, the PFP's Chiu Yi (
"The party is highly vulnerable to Hsieh Chi-ta (
Wang, nevertheless, added that the party still aims to gain more votes and secure supporters for the long term.
First timers
As for the newly-formed Taiwan Solidarity Union (TSU), it, like the PFP, faces its first election after since its founding.
"Our success lies in whether [former president] Lee Teng-hui's (
Going solo
Half of the city's legislative candidates are running independently. It may be too early to predict their election prospects, but observers say that they certainly pose threats to other party candidates.
Liao said that, in the southern district, former legislator Ju Gao-jeng (朱高正) has been very good at making news and grabbing attention, while Lin Kuan-hei (林崑海), the owner of Sanlih TV (三立電視), has the most campaign resources.
In the northern district, both Wang Tein-ging (
"We may be surprised to see some dark horses being elected from the independent candidates' poll," Liao added.
This year's contest promises to be the toughest. Thirty-six candidates are vying for 11 seats; the city's 1 million eligible voters -- divided into southern and northern constituencies -- will elect five and six legislators, respectively.
SEA WARNING LIKELY: The storm, named Gaemi, could become a moderate typhoon on Wednesday or Thursday, with the Taipei City Government preparing for flooding A tropical depression east of the Philippines developed into a tropical storm named Gaemi at 2pm yesterday, and was moving toward eastern Taiwan, the Central Weather Administration (CWA) said. Gaemi could begin to affect Taiwan proper on Tuesday, lasting until Friday, and could develop into a moderate typhoon on Wednesday or Thursday, it said. A sea warning for Gaemi could be issued as early as Tuesday morning, it added. Gaemi, the third tropical storm in the Pacific Ocean this typhoon season, is projected to begin moving northwest today, and be closest to Taiwan on Wednesday or Thursday, the agency said. Today, there would likely
CHIPS AND DEFENSE: Trump said the US had lost its chip business and Taipei should pay it for defense, and added that ‘we’re no different than an insurance company’ Taiwan-US relations are solid, and both sides are in agreement that peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait and the Indo-Pacific region are everyone’s concern, Premier Cho Jung-tai (卓榮泰) said yesterday following comments by former US president Donald Trump that Taiwan “should pay” for US defense. Taiwan is thankful to the US for supporting Taiwan’s bid to participate in international organizations, Cho told a news conference in Taipei. “I know the people very well, respect them greatly. They did take about 100 percent of our chip business,” Trump told Bloomberg on June 25 in an interview that was published on Tuesday. “I think
SHOW OF SUPPORT: Taiwan has been one of the largest buyers of US defense equipment, supporting American businesses and jobs, US lawmakers said Taiwan has been paying for its own defense, a US Department of State official said on Wednesday, adding that purchases of military equipment are important to the US economy and for ensuring regional security. State Department spokesman Matthew Miller was asked at a news conference about comments by former US president Donald Trump, the Republican nominee in November’s US presidential election, who said during an interview with Bloomberg Businessweek that Taiwan should pay Washington for its defense needs. “The purchases that they [Taiwan] have made not only are important, we believe, to regional security, but are important to the United States economy,”
END OF SESSION: Other changes that passed involved the removal of restrictions on group tours to China and raising the sentence for people found guilty of child abuse Legislators yesterday passed the third reading of amendments to Article 49 of the Electricity Act (電業法), which stipulate that at least half of the electricity price evaluation committee should be made up of civilian representatives, and a resolution to invite President William Lai (賴清德) to present a state of the nation address at the Legislative Yuan. They also passed a motion proposed by the Taiwan People’s Party (TPP) and Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) that the government remove restrictions on group tours to China. On the last day of this year’s first legislative session, the legislators attempted to deal with dozens of bills