Some US analysts fear that this year could be a dangerous one, with Taiwan growing diplomatically closer to Beijing and more distant from Washington.
By developing new weapons systems, Beijing hopes to keep the US and other allied forces from “intervening in areas of sensitivity,” Naval War College associate professor Andrew Erickson said.
In a new study published by the National Interest this week, Erickson said that China is trying to persuade Taipei and other regional capitals that Washington’s assistance in the case of a crisis “will be neither reliable nor forthcoming.”
“To further its near-seas interests, China is attempting to undermine the efficacy of, and decrease the likelihood of, involvement by US allied and friendly military forces there,” he said.
China, he said, is on the verge of achieving major breakthroughs in multi-axis cruise-missile strikes, antiship ballistic missiles, antisatellite weapons and navigation satellites.
“Such achievements, coupled with determination to address near-seas disputes, promise to enhance China’s ‘keep out’ capabilities and undermine regional stability,” Erickson said.
An American Enterprise Institute (AEI) academic focusing on national security and foreign policy issues, Michael Rubin, said the US must realize it is in a new “Great Game.”
“While American diplomacy is predicated on the notion of compromises and win-win situations, both the Russians and the Chinese see influence as a zero-sum game and, as a result, whenever we give either an inch, they take a mile and they have no intention of letting go,” Rubin said.
In an interview published by the Washington Times this week, Rubin said there is a clash of philosophies.
The administration of US President Barack Obama is pushing for more inclusion of smaller nations in the Trans-Pacific Partnership and is giving increased support to the ASEAN as a counterweight to China’s growing geopolitical clout in the region.
However, Rubin and senior director of the Asia-Pacific Security Program at the Center for a New American Security Patrick Cronin have both told the Washington Times that the US should be doing more to beef up unilateral, military-based relations with smaller Asian nations.
The idea would be to send a message to China about the “depth and durability” of US interests in key regions.
Washington should be more active and might consider using aircraft carriers as “floating embassies,” Rubin said.
“The reason we don’t take advantage of this enough is because we do not see influence as a zero-sum game the way that the Chinese do. All the countries in the region realize this is the Chinese mentality — we, on the other hand, are wallowing in blissful ignorance of the way our adversaries think,” he said.
As a result, Rubin said, Taiwan and other allies are questioning the US’ commitment and Taipei has become significantly closer to Beijing in recent years “because they see us as unreliable.”
Meanwhile, resident academic at AEI Michael Auslin wrote in a paper that last year was “a wasted year” in East Asia, and that countries in the region failed to solve any foreign-relations problems and face greater tension this year.
GEARING UP: An invasion would be difficult and would strain China’s forces, but it has conducted large-scale training supporting an invasion scenario, the report said China increased its military pressure on Taiwan last year and took other steps in preparation for a potential invasion, an annual report published by the US Department of Defense on Wednesday showed. “Throughout 2023, Beijing continued to erode longstanding norms in and around Taiwan by employing a range of pressure tactics against Taiwan,” the report said, which is titled “Military and Security Developments Involving the People’s Republic of China (PRC) 2024.” The Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) “is preparing for a contingency to unify Taiwan with the PRC by force, if perceived as necessary by Beijing, while simultaneously deterring, delaying or denying
‘LAGGING BEHIND’: The NATO secretary-general called on democratic allies to be ‘clear-eyed’ about Beijing’s military buildup, urging them to boost military spending NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte mentioning China’s bullying of Taiwan and its ambition to reshape the global order has significance during a time when authoritarian states are continuously increasing their aggression, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MOFA) said yesterday. In a speech at the Carnegie Europe think tank in Brussels on Thursday, Rutte said Beijing is bullying Taiwan and would start to “nibble” at Taiwan if Russia benefits from a post-invasion peace deal with Ukraine. He called on democratic allies to boost defense investments and also urged NATO members to increase defense spending in the face of growing military threats from Russia
PEACEFUL RESOLUTION: A statement issued following a meeting between Australia and Britain reiterated support for Taiwan and opposition to change in the Taiwan Strait Canada should support the peaceful resolution of Taiwan’s destiny according to the will of Taiwanese, Canadian lawmakers said in a resolution marking the second anniversary of that nation’s Indo-Pacific strategy on Monday. The Canadian House of Commons committee on Canada-Chinese relations made the comment as part of 34 recommendations for the new edition of the strategy, adding that Ottawa should back Taiwan’s meaningful participation in international organizations. Canada’s Indo-Pacific Strategy, first published in October 2022, emphasized that the region’s security, trade, human rights, democracy and environmental protection would play a crucial role in shaping Canada’s future. The strategy called for Canada to deepen
TECH CONFERENCE: Input from industry and academic experts can contribute to future policymaking across government agencies, President William Lai said Multifunctional service robots could be the next new area in which Taiwan could play a significant role, given its strengths in chip manufacturing and software design, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co (TSMC, 台積電) chairman and chief executive C.C. Wei (魏哲家) said yesterday. “In the past two months, our customers shared a lot of their future plans with me. Artificial intelligence [AI] and AI applications were the most talked about subjects in our conversation,” Wei said in a speech at the National Science and Technology Conference in Taipei. TSMC, the world’s biggest contract chipmaker, counts Nvidia Corp, Advanced Micro Devices Inc, Apple Inc and
RSS