Taiwan should be “very concerned” by reports that China’s navy will soon begin the first sea patrols of a new class of strategic missile submarines, a US military expert said on Tuesday.
“While these missiles may not be aimed at Taiwan per se, they are aimed at America’s capacity to resist Chinese aggression against Taiwan,” International Assessment and Strategy Center senior fellow Richard Fisher said.
He was responding to questions from the Taipei Times following publication by the Washington Times this week of a report that US defense officials believe Beijing will begin the first sea patrols of three new Type 094 missile submarines next year.
The subs will carry the new JL-2 ballistic missile, which is thought to be equipped with multiple warheads capable of hitting the US.
Pentagon sources say the JL-2 poses a “potential first strike” nuclear missile threat to the US.
“Even with their initial deployment of three nuclear missile submarines, if patrols can be maintained off the eastern coast of North Korea, then China would have the option of launching a first strike that could reach America’s main nuclear missile submarine base at Kitsap Naval Base near Seattle,” Fisher said.
He added the emergence of China’s nuclear missile submarine fleet would make the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) far more desirous of conquering Taiwan.
According to Fisher, Taiwan’s eastern coast has immediate access to some of the deepest waters of the Pacific and would present the most ideal patrol areas for China to defend its submarines, compared with bases in the South China Sea.
“Should it ever fall to Chinese control, I would expect that Taiwan would become a major PLA nuclear forces base — for nuclear missile submarines, bombers and for land-based missiles,” said Fisher, an expert on Chinese military affairs.
He said this would be done not just to take advantage of Taiwan’s key geostrategic position in Asia, but also to ensure that the “problem” of Taiwan’s politically “unreliable” population becomes “solved” by potential nuclear retaliation against PLA nuclear forces in Taiwan.
The Washington Times quoted a US defense official familiar with recent intelligence assessments as saying that the US was anticipating combat patrols of Chinese submarines carrying the new JL-2 missile to begin next year.
The patrols will be the first time China conducts submarine operations involving nuclear-tipped missiles far from its shores, despite having had a small missile submarine force since the late 1980s, the Washington Times said.
Fisher said that all of this points to the necessity for Taiwan to build a “far more robust” capability to independently deter Chinese attack.
“It will also require that Taiwan have far better defense relationships with its neighbors Japan and the Philippines, in order to develop the means for overlapping and redundant early warning and surveillance,” Fisher said.
“This alone has tremendous potential to increase deterrence in the Taiwan Strait,” he said.
Fisher said that if the PLA knows that it will have to attack Japan and the Philippines in order to deny Taiwan the information it needs to defend itself, then China “is much less likely to attack Taiwan in the first place.”
‘CROWN JEWEL’: Washington ‘can delay and deter’ Chinese President Xi Jinping’s plans for Taiwan, but it is ‘a very delicate situation there,’ the secretary of state said US President Donald Trump is opposed to any change to Taiwan’s “status quo” by force or extortion and would maintain that policy, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio told the Hugh Hewitt Show host on Wednesday. The US’ policy is to maintain Taiwan’s “status quo” and to oppose any changes in the situation by force or extortion, Rubio said. Hewitt asked Rubio about the significance of Trump earlier this month speaking with Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co (台積電) chairman C.C. Wei (魏哲家) at the White House, a meeting that Hewitt described as a “big deal.” Asked whether the meeting was an indication of the
‘RELATIVELY STRONG LANGUAGE’: An expert said the state department has not softened its language on China and was ‘probably a little more Taiwan supportive’ China’s latest drills near Taiwan on Monday were “brazen and irresponsible threats,” a US Department of State spokesperson said on Tuesday, while reiterating Washington’s decades-long support of Taipei. “China cannot credibly claim to be a ‘force for stability in a turbulent world’ while issuing brazen and irresponsible threats toward Taiwan,” the unnamed spokesperson said in an e-mailed response to media queries. Washington’s enduring commitment to Taiwan will continue as it has for 45 years and the US “will continue to support Taiwan in the face of China’s military, economic, informational and diplomatic pressure campaign,” the e-mail said. “Alongside our international partners, we firmly
KAOHSIUNG CEREMONY: The contract chipmaker is planning to build 5 fabs in the southern city to gradually expand its 2-nanometer chip capacity Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co (TSMC, 台積電), the world’s biggest contract chipmaker, yesterday confirmed that it plans to hold a ceremony on March 31 to unveil a capacity expansion plan for its most advanced 2-nanometer chips in Kaohsiung, demonstrating its commitment to further investment at home. The ceremony is to be hosted by TSMC cochief operating officer Y.P. Chyn (秦永沛). It did not disclose whether Premier Cho Jung-tai (卓榮泰) and high-ranking government officials would attend the ceremony. More details are to be released next week, it said. The chipmaker’s latest move came after its announcement earlier this month of an additional US$100 billion
COUNTERING THE PLA: While the US should reinforce its relations with partners and allies, Taiwan must invest in strengthening its defenses as well, Phillip Davidson said If influence in the Indo-Pacific region is one of the US’ core interests, then Taiwan serves as a cornerstone of US economic and security influence in the region, former US Indo-Pacific Command commander admiral Phillip Davidson said on Thursday. “China’s ... strategy is to supplant the US leadership role in the international order ... and they’ve long said ... that they intend to do that by 2050,” Davidson told the National Review Institute’s Ideas Summit in Washington. Davidson said he had previously told US Senate hearings on China’s military activities and possible threats in the Indo-Pacific region that a Chinese invasion of