Taiwan may be on a “slippery slope” in its dealings with China, former American Institute in Taiwan chairman Richard Bush wrote recently in a policy paper.
Even if Taipei does not make a “proactive strategic decision” to appease Beijing and Washington does not seek to curry favor with China by sacrificing Taiwan’s interests, “there remains the possibility that Taiwan might undermine itself through inattention or neglect,” he said.
In a policy briefing published by the non-profit Brookings Institution in Washington this week, Bush wrote that Taiwan might become complacent and assume that Beijing’s intentions are so benign that it is prepared to accept some version of the “status quo” in the long term.
“Yet China has a different objective — ending Taiwan’s de facto independence more or less on its terms — and it may not have infinite patience,” he said.
The danger is that a frustrated China might seek to exploit the power asymmetry between the two sides of the Taiwan Strait and intimidate Taiwan into accepting “an offer it can’t refuse,” he said.
The first thing Taiwan must do to avoid that situation is to “not create the impression in Beijing that the door on unification is closing forever — which Taiwan is currently doing,” Bush added.
There are four other things Bush said the nation can do “at the margin” to strengthen itself against Chinese pressure.
Economically, it should sustain competitiveness by shifting to a knowledge-based economy and liberalizing economic ties with all major trading partners, not just China.
Taiwan should also reform its political system so that it can better address the real challenges it faces, instead of focusing on relatively superficial issues.
It should also foster a clearer sense of what it means to say that Taiwan is a sovereign entity, not just in its role in the international system, but also regarding cross-strait relations.
Militarily, Taiwan should enhance the deterrent capabilities of its armed forces in ways that raise the costs and uncertainties for Beijing if it were ever to mount an intimidation campaign.
“None of these forms of self-strengthening will be easy, but they will buoy Taiwan’s psychological confidence and reduce the chances of the PRC [People’s Republic of China applying] pressure in the first place,” he said.
For its part, the US should help Taiwan where it can.
“The most obvious ways are economically, by drawing Taiwan into the circle of high-quality liberalization, and militarily, by supporting innovative and cost-effective ways to enhance deterrence,” the briefing said.
In his report, Bush said that the primary reason China has failed to engage Taiwan on its terms is not US arms sales, but “because its negotiating position is unacceptable to the Taiwan public.”
Bush concluded that: “As China rises and seeks to reshape East Asia more to its liking, how the United States responds will be a critical variable. It needs the right mix of accommodation and firmness. Giving way on Taiwan will neither pacify Beijing nor assure our allies.”
As reported by the Taipei Times last week, Bush, who is the director of the Center for Northeast Asian Policy Studies at the Brookings Institution, recently published a book titled Uncharted Strait: The Future of China-Taiwan Relations.
BAIL APPEALS: The former vice premier was ordered to be held incommunicado despite twice being granted bail and paying a total of NT$12 million in bond The Taoyuan District Court yesterday ordered the detention of former vice premier Cheng Wen-tsan (鄭文燦), who is being investigated for alleged corruption while serving as Taoyuan mayor from December 2014 to December 2022, and that he be held incommunicado. The court made the ruling during a bail hearing after prosecutors appealed its bail ruling twice. Cheng on Saturday was released after posting bail of NT$5 million (US$153,818). However, after prosecutors lodged an appeal, the High Court on Monday revoked the original ruling and ordered the Taoyuan District Court to hold another bail hearing. On Tuesday, the district court granted bail to Cheng a second
The Thai government on Friday announced that Taiwanese would be allowed to stay in the country for up to 60 days per entry, under the Southeast Asian country’s visa-free program starting from today. Taiwan is among 93 countries included in the Thai visa-waiver program, which has been expanded from 57 countries, with the visa-exempt entry extended from 30 to 60 days. After taking office last year, Thai Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin has vowed to grant more visa waivers to foreign travelers as part of efforts to stimulate tourism. The expanded visa-waiver program was on Friday signed by Thai Minister of the Interior Anutin
PEACE AND SECURITY: China’s military ambitions present ‘the greatest strategic challenge to Japan and the world, Japan’s annual defense white paper said yesterday Japan yesterday warned that China risked escalating tensions with Taiwan with an increase in military exercises that appeared aimed in part at readying Beijing’s forces for a possible invasion. Japan’s annual assessment of security threats, including those posed by China, North Korea and Russia, comes as Taiwan closely monitors Chinese People’s Liberation Army air and sea exercises, including one with the Shandong aircraft carrier in the Pacific Ocean. The drills are the latest in a series including maneuvers in the Taiwan Strait last year that a senior US general said would be key to any invasion. “Because of that increase in military activity,
HAN KUANG: The exercises, which are to run from July 22 to 26, will feature unscripted war games and a decentralized command and control structure, military officers said The armed forces would for the first time test new rules of engagement (ROE) at this month’s annual Han Kuang exercises, the Ministry of National Defense (MND) said yesterday. The exercises, which are to run from July 22 to 26, will feature unscripted war games, and a decentralized command and control structure, military officers told a news conference in Taipei. ROE cards would be issued to select combat troops to test their ability to function without tight control, they said. The most recent edition of the rules was published last year, they said. One of the cards’ two templates identifies enemy targets that soldiers