Academia Sinica yesterday cut its forecast for this year’s GDP growth to 1.94 percent from a previous estimate of 3.81 percent made in December last year, citing sluggish momentum on exports as a result of global economic uncertainty, which may further impact domestic demand.
The latest forecast from the nation’s top research institute was the weakest among all domestic think tanks and it was also lower than the 3.03 percent growth forecast issued by the Directorate-General of Budget, Accounting and Statistics (DGBAS) in May.
The DGBAS is scheduled to update its forecast on July 31.
“Worse-than-expected international trade was the main adjustment in this revision, because world outlook and global trade activity remain very weak and uncertain,” Ray Chou (周雨田), an economic research fellow at Academia Sinica, told a press conference.
Exports fell 4.7 percent from a year ago in the first six months, marking one of the worst performances among countries in Asia, with exports to the US, Europe, China and Hong Kong all slowing down.
The lingering global economic uncertainty also prompted Academia Sinica to cut its growth forecast for the output sector to 0.87 percent this year from the 5.15 percent estimate it made in December last year.
Chou said sluggish external demand would further affect domestic demand and weaken the investment intentions of domestic firms, especially capital investment on equipment. The institute therefore revised down its growth forecast for private investment to minus-0.5 percent this year, from 2.2 percent previously.
Academia Sinica also adjusted downward its growth forecast for private consumption this year from 2.72 percent to 2.1 percent, as the government’s move to raise energy prices and a worsening stock market performance dampened consumer spending in the second quarter.
The institute forecast annual growth in headline inflation at 1.8 percent this year, up from the 1.16 percent it estimated previously.
Academia Sinica expects the economy to contract 0.89 percent from a year earlier in the second quarter, but to rebound with 2.72 percent growth and 5.29 percent growth in the third and fourth quarters respectively on the back of a lower base.
Peng Shin-kun (彭信坤), director of Academia Sinica’s Institute of Economics, said it was almost a “mission impossible” for the nation’s economy to grow more than 3 percent this year.
However, Hung Jui-bin (洪瑞彬), director-general of the Council for Economic Planning and Development’s economic research department, said the institute’s forecast was too pessimistic.
Despite both external and internal uncertainties increasing more than previously expected, Hung said the government has been launching various short-term and long-term projects to stimulate growth in exports, investment and consumption, and that it is hoping to see positive effects very soon.
‘TAIWAN-FRIENDLY’: The last time the Web site fact sheet removed the lines on the US not supporting Taiwanese independence was during the Biden administration in 2022 The US Department of State has removed a statement on its Web site that it does not support Taiwanese independence, among changes that the Taiwanese government praised yesterday as supporting Taiwan. The Taiwan-US relations fact sheet, produced by the department’s Bureau of East Asian and Pacific Affairs, previously stated that the US opposes “any unilateral changes to the status quo from either side; we do not support Taiwan independence; and we expect cross-strait differences to be resolved by peaceful means.” In the updated version published on Thursday, the line stating that the US does not support Taiwanese independence had been removed. The updated
‘CORRECT IDENTIFICATION’: Beginning in May, Taiwanese married to Japanese can register their home country as Taiwan in their spouse’s family record, ‘Nikkei Asia’ said The government yesterday thanked Japan for revising rules that would allow Taiwanese nationals married to Japanese citizens to list their home country as “Taiwan” in the official family record database. At present, Taiwanese have to select “China.” Minister of Foreign Affairs Lin Chia-lung (林佳龍) said the new rule, set to be implemented in May, would now “correctly” identify Taiwanese in Japan and help protect their rights, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs said in a statement. The statement was released after Nikkei Asia reported the new policy earlier yesterday. The name and nationality of a non-Japanese person marrying a Japanese national is added to the
AT RISK: The council reiterated that people should seriously consider the necessity of visiting China, after Beijing passed 22 guidelines to punish ‘die-hard’ separatists The Mainland Affairs Council (MAC) has since Jan. 1 last year received 65 petitions regarding Taiwanese who were interrogated or detained in China, MAC Minister Chiu Chui-cheng (邱垂正) said yesterday. Fifty-two either went missing or had their personal freedoms restricted, with some put in criminal detention, while 13 were interrogated and temporarily detained, he said in a radio interview. On June 21 last year, China announced 22 guidelines to punish “die-hard Taiwanese independence separatists,” allowing Chinese courts to try people in absentia. The guidelines are uncivilized and inhumane, allowing Beijing to seize assets and issue the death penalty, with no regard for potential
‘UNITED FRONT’ FRONTS: Barring contact with Huaqiao and Jinan universities is needed to stop China targeting Taiwanese students, the education minister said Taiwan has blacklisted two Chinese universities from conducting academic exchange programs in the nation after reports that the institutes are arms of Beijing’s United Front Work Department, Minister of Education Cheng Ying-yao (鄭英耀) said in an exclusive interview with the Chinese-language Liberty Times (the Taipei Times’ sister paper) published yesterday. China’s Huaqiao University in Xiamen and Quanzhou, as well as Jinan University in Guangzhou, which have 600 and 1,500 Taiwanese on their rolls respectively, are under direct control of the Chinese government’s political warfare branch, Cheng said, citing reports by national security officials. A comprehensive ban on Taiwanese institutions collaborating or
RSS