The support gap between Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) presidential candidate Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文) and President Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九) of the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) has widened in the past week, an online prediction market showed.
The Web site xfuture.org, an electronic exchange at the Center for Prediction Markets at National Chengchi University, said yesterday that People First Party Chairman James Soong (宋楚瑜) and Ma’s political futures prices on its site were tampered with through “outside interference” after Soong completed his registration of candidacy with the Central Election Commission (CEC) on Nov. 24.
The system had been repaired by 4pm the next day, and as of Thursday, it predicted that Tsai would receive 49.9 percent of all votes cast in next month’s election, Ma would get 41.9 percent and Soong would take 11.7 percent.
Prior to the three candidates’ registration with the CEC last week, the site showed Tsai leading Ma by 5 percentage points.
Noting that the total value of all three candidates’ support rate, as of Thursday, is nearing 100, the site said figures suggested the market is approaching equilibrium.
On the possibility of being elected, the exchange on Thursday gave Tsai 51 percent, Ma 37.1 percent and Soong 12.5 percent, with Ma’s success rate falling by 4 percentage points since Nov. 25, while Soong’s rate increased by 4 percentage points.
Prediction markets are speculative exchanges, with the value of an asset meant to reflect the likelihood of future events. Virtual bids may be made on events, with the bidding price reflecting its probability.
UPDATED FORECAST: The warning covered areas of Pingtung County and Hengchun Peninsula, while a sea warning covering the southern Taiwan Strait was amended The Central Weather Administration (CWA) at 5:30pm yesterday issued a land warning for Typhoon Usagi as the storm approached Taiwan from the south after passing over the Philippines. As of 5pm, Usagi was 420km south-southeast of Oluanpi (鵝鑾鼻), Taiwan proper’s southernmost tip, with an average radius of 150km, the CWA said. The land warning covered areas of Pingtung County and the Hengchun Peninsula (恆春), and came with an amended sea warning, updating a warning issued yesterday morning to cover the southern part of the Taiwan Strait. No local governments had announced any class or office closures as of press time last night. The typhoon
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