Sun, Sep 11, 2011 page1

• China’s Hu Jintao ‘patient,’ ‘pragmatic’ on Taiwan, Lee Kuan Yew says in cable

  • By Shih Hsiu-chuan / Staff Reporter
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  Former Singaporean prime minister Lee Kuan Yew (李光耀) said Chinese President Hu Jintao (胡錦濤) appeared “patient” in moving toward the goal of bringing Taiwan into the Chinese fold, an approach that was deemed a success by Chinese academics, leaked US cables showed.

  Several US diplomatic cables released by WikiLeaks showed that Taiwan was among the issues discussed when then-US deputy secretary of state James Steinberg and US Senator Bill Nelson met separately with Lee in 2009.

  A cable dated June 4, 2009, from the US embassy in Singapore detailed Lee telling Steinberg that Hu could live with President Ma Ying-jeou’s (馬英九) position on the so-called “1992 consensus” and on not addressing the “reunification issue” during his term in office, because Hu was “more patient and does not have any fixed timeline.”

  Lee was quoted in the cable as saying former Chinese president Jiang Zemin (江澤民) was “wedded” to his eight-point approach, while Hu was more flexible. Jiang wanted to show he was a great man by solving the “Taiwan issue” in his lifetime, but Hu was more patient, Lee added.

  “On Taiwan, Hu will be pragmatic. It does not matter to Hu if it takes 10 years or 20 or 30. The key is building links with Taiwan,” Lee was quoted as saying.

  “What mattered to Hu was that Taiwan not seek independence. If that happened, China has 1,000 missiles and is building its capacity to hold the US fleet at a distance. The implicit question for Taiwan’s leaders is if that is what they want,” Lee added.

  Beijing’s calculations appeared to be to prevent Taiwanese independence in the near term, “then bring Taiwan ‘back to China,’ even if it takes 40 or 50 years,” the cable showed Lee as saying.

  Lee also said Hu had wanted Chinese Vice Premier Li Keqiang (李克強) to be his successor, not Chinese Vice President Xi Jinping (習近平), “but Hu did his calculations and accepted Xi when it became clear that Xi had the necessary backing from the rest of the leadership,” also an example indicating Hu was “pragmatic.”

  In another cable from the same embassy, dated Aug. 17, 2009, Lee, in a meeting on Aug, 13, 2009, with Nelson, said China had asked Singapore to stop sending its troops for training in Taiwan and offered training areas in China’s Hainan instead.

  Singapore does not have official diplomatic ties with Taiwan, but an agreement that began in 1975 allowed Singapore to train infantry, artillery, armored and commando units in Taiwan.

  The cable showed Lee as telling his Chinese counterparts that “if Singapore forces go to Hainan for training, the Americans will stop selling Singapore arms.”

  “[Lee] intended for the Chinese to get the message that their arms are not equal to American arms, he said. He added that he has told Beijing that if Beijing is in charge of Taiwan, he will ask Beijing for permission to train there,” the cable said.

  Singapore is still pressured by Beijing on issues like Taiwan, Lee said.

  Another cable, dated April 30, 2008, from the US embassy in Beijing showed that some Chinese academics exchanged views about Hu’s “patient” attitude on the “Taiwan issue” and considered the strategy a success in terms of increasing China’s influence on Taiwan.

  Guo Zhenyuan (郭震遠), a senior academic at the China Institute of International Studies, said Hu “took risks” when he met with then-honorary Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) chairman Lien Chan (連戰) in 2005, expressing his faith in Taiwanese people in his “four nevers” speech, broke from Jiang’s timeline for unification, and deciding to be “very restrained” in the lead-up to the presidential election and referendum vote in March 2008, the cable showed.

  “If the Taiwan referenda on joining the United Nations had passed and the DPP [Democratic Progressive Party] had stayed in power, Hu would have been vulnerable to strong attacks against his policy. By contrast, having achieved ‘the best possible result in the elections’ [that the KMT won the election and the referendums were defeated], Hu is now ‘very strong’ on Taiwan Policy, Guo argued,” the cable read.

  The cable quoted Yang Liuchang, director-general of the Hong Kong, Macao, and Overseas Affairs Division of Beijing’s Taiwan Affairs Office, as saying that Hu’s policy had been successful because it focused on peaceful development, which was a “win-win” situation for people on both sides of the Taiwan Strait.

  “Yang said Hu is serious about achieving a peace agreement but will be patient and, unlike Jiang Zemin, will ‘not rush’ in pushing forward on cross-Strait issues,” Yang said.

  In its comment, the US embassy in Beijing said it was a fact that Hu’s successful strategic gambles appeared to have strengthened his hand on Taiwan, the cable read.
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