Recent analysis by the US-based Foreign Policy Research Institute concludes that Beijing is likely to announce some policies that are favorable to Taiwan this year, including a variety of “political or economic perks,” to win hearts and minds in Taiwan.
Such measures, the report said, would also be part of efforts to encourage support for closer cross-strait relations and enhance the Chinese Nationalist Party’s (KMT) chances of staying in power in next year’s presidential election.
“China will continue to seek to promote economic integration with Taiwan, expand and deepen cross-strait exchanges and steadily promote economic development on both sides of the strait,” the report said. “In the more sensitive political field, Beijing will not rush the KMT on launching political dialogue in the near future, especially before the 2012 election.”
Written by Chang So-heng (張守珩), a visiting Taiwanese academic at the institute, the paper said Beijing recognizes that most people in Taiwan would prefer to perpetuate current conditions rather than move toward independence or unification with China.
“If political talks were to be held today, suspicions would arise and protests might erupt in Taiwan, including such measures as boycotting the congressional agenda and organizing street -demonstrations,” the paper said. “This would jeopardize reelection chances for President Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九) and imperil China’s preferred outcome.”
Chang, an associate research fellow at the Cross-Strait Interflow Prospect Foundation, said some voters in Taiwan have worried that Ma’s economic policy is moving too close to Beijing and that Taiwan’s economy therefore might be absorbed by China.
“They fear that Ma’s ultimate intention may be unification with China and that he may undermine Taiwan’s sovereignty in negotiations with the more powerful China,” the report said.
“Facing these challenges, the KMT has reason to heed the apparent warning from the decline in its vote share in the [special municipality] elections and to try to improve its appeal as it prepares for an arduous battle against the Democratic Progressive Party [DPP] in the 2012 presidential election,” it said.
Ma will be more careful and cautious, and no surprising actions should be expected from him this year, the paper said.
To “grapple” with a reinvigorated DPP, the paper said Ma would likely strive to persuade Washington to sell Taiwan advanced F-16C/D fighter aircraft, try to advance talks with the US on free-trade issues and attempt to participate in the APEC meeting in Honolulu.
“Beijing hopes that the DPP will not come to power again soon. Beijing sees the DPP as too hard to deal with and too pro-independence,” the analysis said. “Before 2012, the Taiwan Strait is likely to remain peaceful and stable. Beijing perceives that the DPP’s power is growing again and likely understands that it should not ignore the party’s rising political clout.”
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