As the campaign for the US midterm elections comes to a close, the results are likely to benefit Taiwan, as most polls predict there will be significant Republican gains as voters cast their ballots on Tuesday.
With the Democrats in control of both the House of Representatives and the Senate, Congress is reluctant to make waves for Democratic US President Barack Obama. However, if Republicans gain a majority in the House or Senate, there would be greater freedom to push controversial issues such as arms sales, free trade and a place for Taipei in international organizations.
“Yes, this has the makings of a good election for Taiwan,” said Coen Blaauw, executive director of the Washington-based Formosan Association for Public Affairs (FAPA).
“FAPA is strictly bipartisan, but it’s definitely helpful to have a Congress that can be outspoken in its support of Taiwanese democracy and willing to pressure the administration at times when the president might want to stay diplomatically quiet,” he said.
In this election — halfway through Obama’s first term — all 435 seats in the House and 37 of the 100 seats in the Senate are at stake, along with 36 of the 50 US state governorships.
GAP
While the latest polls show the gap to be closing, Republicans appear to be leading across the board by 4 or 5 percentage points.
It could be enough to give them control of the House, but they are unlikely to take the Senate.
At this point there are 255 Democrats and 178 Republicans in the House and 57 Democrats and 41 Republicans in the Senate — two senators are technically independent, but generally vote with the Democrats. The Republicans need to win an extra 40 seats in the House and 10 seats in the Senate to gain control of those bodies.
If the Republicans do take control of the House, the most significant change for Taiwan would come as Representative Ileana Ros-Lehtinen, a Florida Republican and the current ranking member of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, automatically takes over the committee chair.
Already a member of the Congressional Taiwan Caucus, she is an enthusiastic supporter of Taiwan’s democracy.
With greatly increased power and influence, she can be relied upon to press Obama to sell advanced F-16 fighters to Taiwan, to push for a free-trade agreement for Taiwan and to fight for a place for Taipei in international organizations.
Ros-Lehtinen is unlikely to heed objections from China.
SUPPORTER
One big loss to Taiwan will come as Representative Lincoln Diaz-Balart, a Florida Republican, retires. A co-chair of the Taiwan Caucus, his enthusiastic support for Taipei will be difficult to replace.
While most of the 151 members of the bipartisan Congressional Taiwan Caucus appear to be safe, at least one leading member — Democratic Congressman Gerry Connolly of Virginia — is in trouble.
He could go under in the expected Republican wave and would be a definite loss.
However, a gain is likely in Ohio where Republican challenger Steve Chabot is expected to defeat incumbent Democrat Steve Driehaus in the First District. Chabot, who was ousted by Driehaus two years ago after serving seven terms in the House, is an avid Taiwan supporter.
He may take over the vice chairmanship of the caucus from the retiring Diaz-Balart.
Meanwhile, Democrat David Wu (吳振偉) of Oregon — the only Taiwanese-born member of Congress — has been making a late comeback in his campaign struggle with Republican challenger Kurt Schrader. Only a few weeks ago, Wu was considered vulnerable, but the latest polls give him a double-digit lead and he is now favored to win.
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