A massive military exercise of potential importance to Taiwan will be staged in December on and around the Ryukyu Islands by the Japan Self-Defense Forces and ships from the US 7th Fleet.
According to a study just released by James Holmes and Toshi Yoshihara, associate professors of strategy at the US Naval War College, the exercise is aimed at perfecting plans for recapturing the lightly protected islands should they be invaded by China.
“The sad fact is that these islands, which have hitherto been vacation destinations, are now becoming a major military and strategic feature of East Asia,” said Arthur Waldron, a former professor at the US Naval War College.
In an e-mail to colleagues, Waldron said: “The last island in this chain, Yonaguni, is only sixty miles [97km] from the east coast of Taiwan — which is visible, looming up far above the horizon, on a clear day.”
Waldron said the Japanese-held Ryukyu Islands could effectively block any Chinese attempt to attack the east coast of Taiwan from the north.
“In case of conflict, the actual Taiwan Strait itself is likely to be impassable, as each side will have the ability to destroy just about anything that moves,” he wrote.
“This would mean that the only attack direction is from the southeast, which means passing to the east, north of the Philippines, at the point where the strait is widest, before turning to the north and east to gain access to Taiwan’s strategic east coast — with its high stone cliffs and very deep water, good for submarines,” Waldron said.
“My own view is that if the defender had good anti-ship missile capabilities, which according to some reports Taiwan does, this would be a very risky operation,” he said.
In their joint study, Holmes and Yoshihara said the People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) has been making efforts to break out of the first island chain and operate freely in the Western Pacific, “either to threaten the east coast of Taiwan or for some other purpose.”
They add that occupying one or more of the Ryukyus offers one way for the PLAN to do so.
“Once ensconced within the island chain, PLA forces could drive off allied navies, keeping Tokyo and Washington from slamming the nautical gateway shut,” the study said.
One possibility, it said, is that the Chinese might stage a narrowly focused attack on the Ryukyu Islands designed to open a corridor through the archipelago.
A prime candidate is Miyako Island, which abuts both Miyako and Ishigaki straits, it said.
Alternatively, the PLA could try to capture the entire Ryukyu chain from Japan in an effort to bar maritime Asia to US reinforcements while keeping forces already in the theater from entering the Taiwan Strait, the authors said.
PLA forces entrenched along the island chain could supply air and sea cover for PLAN vessels cruising off the east coast of Taiwan.
“Stealthy, missile-armed Type 022 Houbei-class catamarans stationed at the many small harbors in the Ryukyus could hold off allied forces while the PLAN fleet overcame the Taiwan Navy and pounded away at shore targets,” he said.
An obvious step, the study says, would be for Japan to fortify the islands themselves against attack, “sparing Japanese forces the hazards of retaking them from PLA occupiers.”
“Dug-in and armed with anti-ship and anti-air weaponry, Japanese troops could make the Ryukyus exceptionally hard targets to capture for PLA forces operating far from their bases,” it said.
The Ryukyu Islands include the Sakishimas, the Miyako Islands, the Yaeyama Islands and the Diaoyutai Islands (釣魚台).
AIR SUPPORT: The Ministry of National Defense thanked the US for the delivery, adding that it was an indicator of the White House’s commitment to the Taiwan Relations Act Deputy Minister of National Defense Po Horng-huei (柏鴻輝) and Representative to the US Alexander Yui on Friday attended a delivery ceremony for the first of Taiwan’s long-awaited 66 F-16C/D Block 70 jets at a Lockheed Martin Corp factory in Greenville, South Carolina. “We are so proud to be the global home of the F-16 and to support Taiwan’s air defense capabilities,” US Representative William Timmons wrote on X, alongside a photograph of Taiwanese and US officials at the event. The F-16C/D Block 70 jets Taiwan ordered have the same capabilities as aircraft that had been upgraded to F-16Vs. The batch of Lockheed Martin
GRIDLOCK: The National Fire Agency’s Special Search and Rescue team is on standby to travel to the countries to help out with the rescue effort A powerful earthquake rocked Myanmar and neighboring Thailand yesterday, killing at least three people in Bangkok and burying dozens when a high-rise building under construction collapsed. Footage shared on social media from Myanmar’s second-largest city showed widespread destruction, raising fears that many were trapped under the rubble or killed. The magnitude 7.7 earthquake, with an epicenter near Mandalay in Myanmar, struck at midday and was followed by a strong magnitude 6.4 aftershock. The extent of death, injury and destruction — especially in Myanmar, which is embroiled in a civil war and where information is tightly controlled at the best of times —
Taiwan was ranked the fourth-safest country in the world with a score of 82.9, trailing only Andorra, the United Arab Emirates and Qatar in Numbeo’s Safety Index by Country report. Taiwan’s score improved by 0.1 points compared with last year’s mid-year report, which had Taiwan fourth with a score of 82.8. However, both scores were lower than in last year’s first review, when Taiwan scored 83.3, and are a long way from when Taiwan was named the second-safest country in the world in 2021, scoring 84.8. Taiwan ranked higher than Singapore in ninth with a score of 77.4 and Japan in 10th with
SECURITY RISK: If there is a conflict between China and Taiwan, ‘there would likely be significant consequences to global economic and security interests,’ it said China remains the top military and cyber threat to the US and continues to make progress on capabilities to seize Taiwan, a report by US intelligence agencies said on Tuesday. The report provides an overview of the “collective insights” of top US intelligence agencies about the security threats to the US posed by foreign nations and criminal organizations. In its Annual Threat Assessment, the agencies divided threats facing the US into two broad categories, “nonstate transnational criminals and terrorists” and “major state actors,” with China, Russia, Iran and North Korea named. Of those countries, “China presents the most comprehensive and robust military threat
RSS