The looming Cabinet reshuffle has helped boost President Ma Ying-jeou’s (馬英九) odds of winning re-election in 2012, the Center for Prediction Market at National Chengchi University said yesterday.
The center said the likelihood of Ma winning the next presidential election rose to 63.2 percent, an increase of 11.4 percentage points from its Aug. 20 forecast, which was the lowest point since the center began tracking the issue in April.
The likelihood of Ma winning in 2012 in a two-way race dropped after Typhoon Morakot lashed the nation from Aug. 8, the center said, adding that it began to rise again after Aug. 21, when the government’s resettlement and reconstruction project began to show some results.
Although the presidential election is three years away, traders look into other variables when they made the bids, including Ma’s possible future rivals, the Democratic Progressive Party’s condition, the economic situation and cross-strait relations, center director Tung Chen-yuan (童振源) said.
Prediction markets are markets where payoffs are tied to unknown future events. The center makes predictions on a variety of issues, including politics, the economy, international affairs, sports and entertainment.
Tung said the odds of Ma winning re-election never dropped below 50 percent, indicating that although many people are unhappy with him, he is still the favored candidate.
The more vibrant the trading, the more accurate the prediction, Tung said, adding that the re-election issue had attracted 665,000 trading entries as of Tuesday.
The Presidential Office announced on Monday that Ma had appointed Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) Vice Chairman and Secretary-General Wu Den-yih (吳敦義) to be the next premier, shortly after Premier Liu Chao-shiuan (劉兆玄) announced he was stepping down, effective today, and that the rest of the Cabinet would resign as well.
Presidential Office Spokesman Wang Yu-chi (王郁琦) dismissed a report in the Chinese-language United Daily News yesterday that Liu had resigned because he was at odds with Ma over the scale of a Cabinet reshuffle.
The newspaper said while Liu preferred to reorganize part of the government, Ma accepted the KMT’s suggestion that a “large-scale” change would be better.
Wang said Ma and Liu had reached an agreement in the middle of last month that Liu would shoulder political responsibility for the typhoon’s aftermath early this month. They had not revealed their plan to avoid damaging the morale of Cabinet officials who were preoccupied with relief efforts, he said.
The United Daily News report also said that Ma had demanded that his former aide, Taiwan High Speed Rail Corp chief executive officer Ou Chin-der (歐晉德), replace Vice Premier Paul Chiu (邱正雄).
Wang said the idea of pairing Liu and Ou had never been raised and that Ma and Liu were good friends and colleagues. Ma and Liu had agreed on the announcement of the new premier and vice premier shortly after Liu announced his resignation, Wang said.
Ma asked Wu to be the next premier last Friday and asked KMT Vice Chairman and Taoyuan County Commissioner Eric Chu (朱立倫) to be vice premier on Saturday, Wang said. Ma then visited Liu at his home on Sunday to thank him for his efforts, he said.
Wang declined to confirm whether Ma had other candidates in mind for the two top spots, saying if he did, it was meaningless now.
The Liberty Times (the Taipei Times’ sister newspaper) reported that KMT Chairman Wu Poh-hsiung (吳伯雄) had been touted as a candidate for premier, but “Ma’s clan” was against the idea because they feared it would limit Ma’s power.
Meanwhile, Wang confirmed Ma had asked Minister of the Interior Liao Liou-yi (廖了以) if he was interested in the post of Presidential Office secretary-general because incumbent Chan Chun-po (詹春柏) will succeed Wu Den-yih as KMT secretary-general.
National Security Council Secretary-General Su Chi (蘇起) will keep his job despite calls for his resignation, Wang said, and Presidential Office Deputy Secretary-General Kao Lang (高朗) will also stay on.
DISCONTENT: The CCP finds positive content about the lives of the Chinese living in Taiwan threatening, as such video could upset people in China, an expert said Chinese spouses of Taiwanese who make videos about their lives in Taiwan have been facing online threats from people in China, a source said yesterday. Some young Chinese spouses of Taiwanese make videos about their lives in Taiwan, often speaking favorably about their living conditions in the nation compared with those in China, the source said. However, the videos have caught the attention of Chinese officials, causing the spouses to come under attack by Beijing’s cyberarmy, they said. “People have been messing with the YouTube channels of these Chinese spouses and have been harassing their family members back in China,”
The Central Weather Administration (CWA) yesterday said there are four weather systems in the western Pacific, with one likely to strengthen into a tropical storm and pose a threat to Taiwan. The nascent tropical storm would be named Usagi and would be the fourth storm in the western Pacific at the moment, along with Typhoon Yinxing and tropical storms Toraji and Manyi, the CWA said. It would be the first time that four tropical cyclones exist simultaneously in November, it added. Records from the meteorology agency showed that three tropical cyclones existed concurrently in January in 1968, 1991 and 1992.
GEOPOLITICAL CONCERNS: Foreign companies such as Nissan, Volkswagen and Konica Minolta have pulled back their operations in China this year Foreign companies pulled more money from China last quarter, a sign that some investors are still pessimistic even as Beijing rolls out stimulus measures aimed at stabilizing growth. China’s direct investment liabilities in its balance of payments dropped US$8.1 billion in the third quarter, data released by the Chinese State Administration of Foreign Exchange showed on Friday. The gauge, which measures foreign direct investment (FDI) in China, was down almost US$13 billion for the first nine months of the year. Foreign investment into China has slumped in the past three years after hitting a record in 2021, a casualty of geopolitical tensions,
‘SOMETHING SPECIAL’: Donald Trump vowed to reward his supporters, while President William Lai said he was confident the Taiwan-US partnership would continue Donald Trump was elected the 47th president of the US early yesterday morning, an extraordinary comeback for a former president who was convicted of felony charges and survived two assassination attempts. With a win in Wisconsin, Trump cleared the 270 electoral votes needed to clinch the presidency. As of press time last night, The Associated Press had Trump on 277 electoral college votes to 224 for US Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democratic Party’s nominee, with Alaska, Arizona, Maine, Michigan and Nevada yet to finalize results. He had 71,289,216 votes nationwide, or 51 percent, while Harris had 66,360,324 (47.5 percent). “We’ve been through so
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