The military balance in the Taiwan Strait continues to tilt in China's favor, with the pace of its missile deployment opposite Taiwan accelerating and an intensive effort by China that aims to prevent the US from coming to Taiwan's aid in the case of a Chinese attack, the Pentagon said in an annual report to the US Congress on Friday.
More than 900 short range ballistic missiles now face Taiwan and the number is increasing by more than 100 a year, the report, Military Power of the People's Republic of China 2007, calculates. That figure is up from an estimate of 710 to 790 such missiles contained in the Department of Defense's last report, which went to Congress last summer.
While last year's report pegged the missile buildup at "about" 100 a year, this year's puts it at "more than" that figure. The latest missile number was calculated last October, so the figure at present is likely to be much higher.
Over the past year, President Chen Shui-bian (
The annual report, mandated by Congress in a 2000 law, devoted several pages to Chinese efforts to prevent US forces from helping Taiwan fight off a Chinese attack, an area of concern that has occupied US military planners increasingly as PLA capacities have grown in recent years.
"In the near term, China is prioritizing measures to deter or counter third-party intervention in any future cross-strait crisis ... forces and operational concepts aimed at preventing an adversary from deploying military forces to forward operating locations," it said.
`Sustained effort'
The PLA "appears engaged in a sustained effort to develop the capability to interdict, at long ranges, aircraft carrier and expeditionary strike groups that might deploy in the western Pacific," it said.
"To prevent deployment of naval forces into Western Pacific waters, PLA planners are focused on targeting surface ships at long ranges ... to hold surface ships at risk through a layered defense" that would reach out beyond Guam, where the US is building up its main Pacific forces as it withdraws from Japanese bases, the report said.
Part of this would be an air defense component, using longer range surface-to-air missiles and the F-10, China's most advanced aircraft, and other advanced fighter jets.
Another aspect would be space warfare, as highlighted by the Chinese anti-satellite operation in January, in which a ground-based missile blew up an old weather satellite.
"China's space activities and capabilities, including anti-satellite programs, have significant implications for anti-access/area denial in Taiwan Strait contingencies and beyond," the Pentagon warned.
However, the Pentagon expressed confidence in the US ability to counter Beijing's efforts.
The US, "through the transformation of US armed forces and global force posture realignments, is maintaining the capability to resist any effort by Beijing to resort to force or coercion to dictate the terms of Taiwan's future status," the Pentagon said.
In its assessment of the Chinese threat to Taiwan, the report noted a number of important Chinese military advances over the past year that could boost its ability to attack Taiwan militarily and prevent or delay a US response in aid of Taiwan.
For example: China received its second Russian-made Sovremenny II guided missile destroyer, fitted with anti-ship cruise missiles and wide-area air defense systems, late last year.
It is building and testing second generation nuclear submarines, including ballistic missile subs and attack subs. Russia also delivered the last two of eight Kilo-class submarines equipped with supersonic anti-ship cruise missiles and sophisticated torpedoes.
Beijing's latest Luzhou class ships will be designed with surface-to-air missile systems that more than double the range of current PLA air defense systems.
China also began production of its first guided-missile frigate.
More than 700 Chinese combat aircraft are now within range of Taiwan without the need to refuel, and airport capacity can expand the number "significantly."
The Air Force is deploying the F-10 multi-role fighter to operational units. The F-10 will be "China's premier fighter in the coming decades."
Chinese aircraft are armed with "an increasingly sophisticated array of air-to-air and air-to-surface weapons, satellite and laser-guided precision munitions, and cruise missiles," the report said.
The PLA has deployed a new amphibious assault vehicle that "has greater stability and performance in open water. Increased amphibious training ... is building proficiency among China's amphibious forces," it said.
"China's military modernization and the deployment of advanced capabilities opposite the island have not eased, with the balance of forces continuing to shift in the mainland's favor," the report said. "Tensions could also increase as Taiwan prepares for its next presidential election."
The Pentagon takes some solace in the fact that Taipei appears ready to boost its defense spending after years of declining funding.
Tropical Storm Usagi strengthened to a typhoon yesterday morning and remains on track to brush past southeastern Taiwan from tomorrow to Sunday, the Central Weather Administration (CWA) said yesterday. As of 2pm yesterday, the storm was approximately 950km east-southeast of Oluanpi (鵝鑾鼻), Taiwan proper’s southernmost point, the CWA said. It is expected to enter the Bashi Channel and then turn north, moving into waters southeast of Taiwan, it said. The agency said it could issue a sea warning in the early hours of today and a land warning in the afternoon. As of 2pm yesterday, the storm was moving at
UPDATED FORECAST: The warning covered areas of Pingtung County and Hengchun Peninsula, while a sea warning covering the southern Taiwan Strait was amended The Central Weather Administration (CWA) at 5:30pm yesterday issued a land warning for Typhoon Usagi as the storm approached Taiwan from the south after passing over the Philippines. As of 5pm, Usagi was 420km south-southeast of Oluanpi (鵝鑾鼻), Taiwan proper’s southernmost tip, with an average radius of 150km, the CWA said. The land warning covered areas of Pingtung County and the Hengchun Peninsula (恆春), and came with an amended sea warning, updating a warning issued yesterday morning to cover the southern part of the Taiwan Strait. No local governments had announced any class or office closures as of press time last night. The typhoon
DISCONTENT: The CCP finds positive content about the lives of the Chinese living in Taiwan threatening, as such video could upset people in China, an expert said Chinese spouses of Taiwanese who make videos about their lives in Taiwan have been facing online threats from people in China, a source said yesterday. Some young Chinese spouses of Taiwanese make videos about their lives in Taiwan, often speaking favorably about their living conditions in the nation compared with those in China, the source said. However, the videos have caught the attention of Chinese officials, causing the spouses to come under attack by Beijing’s cyberarmy, they said. “People have been messing with the YouTube channels of these Chinese spouses and have been harassing their family members back in China,”
The Central Weather Administration (CWA) yesterday said there are four weather systems in the western Pacific, with one likely to strengthen into a tropical storm and pose a threat to Taiwan. The nascent tropical storm would be named Usagi and would be the fourth storm in the western Pacific at the moment, along with Typhoon Yinxing and tropical storms Toraji and Manyi, the CWA said. It would be the first time that four tropical cyclones exist simultaneously in November, it added. Records from the meteorology agency showed that three tropical cyclones existed concurrently in January in 1968, 1991 and 1992.
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