The military balance in the Taiwan Strait continues to tilt in China's favor, with the pace of its missile deployment opposite Taiwan accelerating and an intensive effort by China that aims to prevent the US from coming to Taiwan's aid in the case of a Chinese attack, the Pentagon said in an annual report to the US Congress on Friday.
More than 900 short range ballistic missiles now face Taiwan and the number is increasing by more than 100 a year, the report, Military Power of the People's Republic of China 2007, calculates. That figure is up from an estimate of 710 to 790 such missiles contained in the Department of Defense's last report, which went to Congress last summer.
While last year's report pegged the missile buildup at "about" 100 a year, this year's puts it at "more than" that figure. The latest missile number was calculated last October, so the figure at present is likely to be much higher.
Over the past year, President Chen Shui-bian (
The annual report, mandated by Congress in a 2000 law, devoted several pages to Chinese efforts to prevent US forces from helping Taiwan fight off a Chinese attack, an area of concern that has occupied US military planners increasingly as PLA capacities have grown in recent years.
"In the near term, China is prioritizing measures to deter or counter third-party intervention in any future cross-strait crisis ... forces and operational concepts aimed at preventing an adversary from deploying military forces to forward operating locations," it said.
`Sustained effort'
The PLA "appears engaged in a sustained effort to develop the capability to interdict, at long ranges, aircraft carrier and expeditionary strike groups that might deploy in the western Pacific," it said.
"To prevent deployment of naval forces into Western Pacific waters, PLA planners are focused on targeting surface ships at long ranges ... to hold surface ships at risk through a layered defense" that would reach out beyond Guam, where the US is building up its main Pacific forces as it withdraws from Japanese bases, the report said.
Part of this would be an air defense component, using longer range surface-to-air missiles and the F-10, China's most advanced aircraft, and other advanced fighter jets.
Another aspect would be space warfare, as highlighted by the Chinese anti-satellite operation in January, in which a ground-based missile blew up an old weather satellite.
"China's space activities and capabilities, including anti-satellite programs, have significant implications for anti-access/area denial in Taiwan Strait contingencies and beyond," the Pentagon warned.
However, the Pentagon expressed confidence in the US ability to counter Beijing's efforts.
The US, "through the transformation of US armed forces and global force posture realignments, is maintaining the capability to resist any effort by Beijing to resort to force or coercion to dictate the terms of Taiwan's future status," the Pentagon said.
In its assessment of the Chinese threat to Taiwan, the report noted a number of important Chinese military advances over the past year that could boost its ability to attack Taiwan militarily and prevent or delay a US response in aid of Taiwan.
For example: China received its second Russian-made Sovremenny II guided missile destroyer, fitted with anti-ship cruise missiles and wide-area air defense systems, late last year.
It is building and testing second generation nuclear submarines, including ballistic missile subs and attack subs. Russia also delivered the last two of eight Kilo-class submarines equipped with supersonic anti-ship cruise missiles and sophisticated torpedoes.
Beijing's latest Luzhou class ships will be designed with surface-to-air missile systems that more than double the range of current PLA air defense systems.
China also began production of its first guided-missile frigate.
More than 700 Chinese combat aircraft are now within range of Taiwan without the need to refuel, and airport capacity can expand the number "significantly."
The Air Force is deploying the F-10 multi-role fighter to operational units. The F-10 will be "China's premier fighter in the coming decades."
Chinese aircraft are armed with "an increasingly sophisticated array of air-to-air and air-to-surface weapons, satellite and laser-guided precision munitions, and cruise missiles," the report said.
The PLA has deployed a new amphibious assault vehicle that "has greater stability and performance in open water. Increased amphibious training ... is building proficiency among China's amphibious forces," it said.
"China's military modernization and the deployment of advanced capabilities opposite the island have not eased, with the balance of forces continuing to shift in the mainland's favor," the report said. "Tensions could also increase as Taiwan prepares for its next presidential election."
The Pentagon takes some solace in the fact that Taipei appears ready to boost its defense spending after years of declining funding.
SECURITY: As China is ‘reshaping’ Hong Kong’s population, Taiwan must raise the eligibility threshold for applications from Hong Kongers, Chiu Chui-cheng said When Hong Kong and Macau citizens apply for residency in Taiwan, it would be under a new category that includes a “national security observation period,” Mainland Affairs Council (MAC) Minister Chiu Chui-cheng (邱垂正) said yesterday. President William Lai (賴清德) on March 13 announced 17 strategies to counter China’s aggression toward Taiwan, including incorporating national security considerations into the review process for residency applications from Hong Kong and Macau citizens. The situation in Hong Kong is constantly changing, Chiu said to media yesterday on the sidelines of the Taipei Technology Run hosted by the Taipei Neihu Technology Park Development Association. With
CARROT AND STICK: While unrelenting in its military threats, China attracted nearly 40,000 Taiwanese to over 400 business events last year Nearly 40,000 Taiwanese last year joined industry events in China, such as conferences and trade fairs, supported by the Chinese government, a study showed yesterday, as Beijing ramps up a charm offensive toward Taipei alongside military pressure. China has long taken a carrot-and-stick approach to Taiwan, threatening it with the prospect of military action while reaching out to those it believes are amenable to Beijing’s point of view. Taiwanese security officials are wary of what they see as Beijing’s influence campaigns to sway public opinion after Taipei and Beijing gradually resumed travel links halted by the COVID-19 pandemic, but the scale of
A US Marine Corps regiment equipped with Naval Strike Missiles (NSM) is set to participate in the upcoming Balikatan 25 exercise in the Luzon Strait, marking the system’s first-ever deployment in the Philippines. US and Philippine officials have separately confirmed that the Navy Marine Expeditionary Ship Interdiction System (NMESIS) — the mobile launch platform for the Naval Strike Missile — would take part in the joint exercise. The missiles are being deployed to “a strategic first island chain chokepoint” in the waters between Taiwan proper and the Philippines, US-based Naval News reported. “The Luzon Strait and Bashi Channel represent a critical access
Pope Francis is be laid to rest on Saturday after lying in state for three days in St Peter’s Basilica, where the faithful are expected to flock to pay their respects to history’s first Latin American pontiff. The cardinals met yesterday in the Vatican’s synod hall to chart the next steps before a conclave begins to choose Francis’ successor, as condolences poured in from around the world. According to current norms, the conclave must begin between May 5 and 10. The cardinals set the funeral for Saturday at 10am in St Peter’s Square, to be celebrated by the dean of the College