A computer simulation projected that China could land forces on Taiwan, but they would be repulsed after two weeks of fierce fighting and harsh losses to both sides, the Ministry of National Defense said yesterday.
The complex simulation involved a scenario of China invading Taiwan in 2012.
The military released its findings from the simulation to reporters yesterday.
In the simulation, Chinese ships ferry forces to the island, backed by heavy missile barrages and pinpoint air strikes on Taiwanese military bases and other strategic facilities.
The "invaders" then establish beachheads along Taiwan's west coast, though their arrival is delayed for days by Taiwanese missile strikes on Chinese military bases and by Taiwanese navy counterattacks.
The simulation saw western Taiwan radar stations, missile bases and airports suffer heavy damage, but ground forces held down casualty numbers by taking cover in specially prepared areas.
After two weeks of fierce fighting, Taiwan's army corners and destroys the Chinese invaders.
At a press conference yesterday morning, the ministry said that in the eventuality of a conflict, Taiwan's "combat anti-missile system" would be able to destroy Chinese short and medium-range ballistic missile forces deployed within striking range of Taiwan.
However, the ministry declined to give details about what it meant by the "combat anti-missile system," after reporters asked whether it referred to the development of the Hsiung Feng IIE (Brave Wind IIE).
The HF-IIE is a land-attack cruise missile that is based on the Hsiung Feng series of anti-ship missiles, and which has been reportedly developed by the Chung Shan Institute of Science and Technology with a range between 150km and 300km.
"[As far as the HF-IIE is concerned,] allow me to keep it classified at the moment," said Marine Lieutenant General Hsu Tai-sheng (
The development of the HF-IIE is a sensitive issue, as Taiwan has pledged to buy and make only defensive weapons. But some officials have proposed making offensive weapons as well, noting that the best deterrent to war would be having the capability to launch a counterattack.
"Let's keep classified information classified," said Rear Admiral Wu Chi-fang (吳季方), spokesman for the ministry. "Otherwise, we will lose every single battle, because our enemy will know every move we make."
Hsu said that the simulation highlighted shortcomings in Taiwan's military preparedness.
"The Chinese communists pose a severe threat to our naval vessels with their superior submarines," Hsu said. "And as their jet fighters far outnumber ours, we would suffer great damage to our air force."
He also said Taiwan's anti-missile and anti-submarine capabilities seemed hard-pressed to deal with the threats they face from China's continuing military buildup.
The computer simulation envisioned no role for the US in the fighting, Hsu said, despite expectations that Washington would assist Taiwan if China attacked.
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