The Democratic Party's dramatic victory in the US House of Representatives is expected to be a net plus for Taiwan, as Taiwan's supporters seek to exploit the split between the House Democratic majority and the Republican White House in the wake of congressional elections in which most backers of Taiwan retained their seats.
"Democratic control of the House is good for Taiwan," said Coen Blaauw, a veteran Washington lobbyist for the Formosan Association for Public Affairs, who feels the Democratic majority will be more willing than their Republican counterparts to buck US President George W. Bush and the
State Department in pushing for legislation about Taiwan opposed by the administration.
Most of Taiwan's biggest backers in the House retained their positions despite earlier fears that some could be defeated.
Three particular races attracted the most attention among Taiwan's supporters: representatives Sherrod Brown and Steve Chabot in Ohio and Senator George Allen in Virginia, all co-chairmen of Taiwan Caucuses in their chambers.
Republican Chabot, who is one of the most consistent champions of Taiwan in the House, scored an easy victory despite fears that he might have been brought down by scandals in his state's Republican party.
Democrat Brown, buoyed by the Republican state woes, upset Senator Mike DeWine to win a seat in the upper chamber. Brown has been the leading congressional promoter of Taiwan's right to participate in the WHO and its annual meeting in Geneva.
Brown's presence should give a boost to Taiwan in the Senate, which has been hesitant in recent years to move legislation of benefit to Taipei. And if he decides to join the Senate Taiwan Caucus, which has been less than active since it was formed three years ago, he could be a voice for greater activism.
In Virginia, Allen, a co-chairman of the Senate caucus, was running neck-and-neck with his Democratic opponent Jim Webb and the final results appeared heading for a recount. Allen had been an early favorite to retain his seat and be a possible 2008 presidential contender, but his campaign was tarred after he made a remark considered racist and was accused of other racist remarks in his career.
On a broader level, Taiwan's supporters are hoping the party split between the new House and the administration will give them some openings to promote Taipei's interests.
Republicans, who have been reluctant in recent years to take action at odds with an administration of their own party, were more actively supportive of Taiwan when former president Bill Clinton was in the White House, they recall.
They point to the fight over former president Lee Teng-hui's (
In recent years, however, while the House has given overwhelming approval to some pro-Taiwan legislation, other bills of equal importance were bottled up in committee and never even made it to the floor for debate or a vote, at a time when Bush has had to increasingly rely on China's cooperation in such crucial areas as North Korea and Iran.
Taiwan's backers are also looking at Representative Nancy Pelosi of California, who will become the new House speaker.
She is a fierce opponent of China's human rights violations and its political system, is favorably disposed to Taiwan and is expected to be very receptive to pro-Taiwan legislative activity.
The shift in the House will usher in a new slate of committee chairman, who are powerful arbiters of what bills advance and which issues warrant hearings and other attention and Taiwan could score some important points.
In the International Relations Committee, Chairman Henry Hyde, who has been one of Taiwan's most important supporters, is retiring this year and will be replaced by Representative Tom Lantos, an equally strong backer of Taipei.
Lantos was considered one of the Democrats most responsible for Lee's trip to Cornell.
A Holocaust survivor, Lantos is a leading force in human rights activism in Congress, and has long honored Taiwan's democratic movement.
In September last year, as chairman of the Congressional Human Rights Caucus, he presented President Chen Shui-bian (陳水扁) with the caucus' annual human rights award in a teleconference from Washington to Miami, where Chen was transiting en route to Latin America.
Replacing Hyde as minority leader of the committee, according to observers, is expected to be either Representative Dan Burton or Representative Lleana Ros-Lehtinen.
Both have spoken regularly on Taiwan's behalf, and both sponsored a resolution last year calling on Bush to abandon the US' "one China" policy in favor of a policy "that recognizes the Republic of China on Taiwan as a sovereign government."
In trade matters, Taipei could stand to benefit from the elevation of Charles Rangel as chairman of the House Ways and Means Committee, with authority over trade issues. That might make it easier to get legislation favoring a free-trade agreement (FTA) through the committee and on to the House floor.
However, political observers note that the Democrats have generally taken a dim view of free-trade pacts, and, with the law that facilitated such pacts expiring in the middle of next year, a Taiwan-US FTA might be even harder to obtain under the Democrats.
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