Opinion polls in this country are notorious for hidden agendas. But two recent polls on cross-strait relations, released back to back last week, were notable for the confusion they created.
The pro-blue magazine Business Weekly and the Mainland Affairs Council released the results of their latest polls on Thursday and Friday, respectively. Newspaper coverage included headlines that appeared contradictory: "73 percent oppose the `one China, two systems' principle," "Most Taiwanese believe independence would lead to war" and "70 percent feel China unfriendly toward Taiwan."
China's state-run Xinhua News Agency reported last Thursday that the Business Weekly poll "showed that 58 percent of local people regard themselves as Chinese. These people said that independence is the red line for the security of Taiwan and they oppose a cross-strait war."
In actuality, the magazine poll found that 58 percent of those who identified themselves as both Taiwanese and Chinese were opposed to cross-strait war.
The council's poll, however, did not mention the possibility of cross-strait military engagement, asking only for responses on whether China exhibits good will towards Taiwan. The poll found that 70.4 percent felt China was unfriendly toward the government.
The magazine poll found that, with regard to Washington-Beijing-Taipei relations, 16 percent of respondents said it was best to remain friendly with the US, while 10 percent felt it was wiser to further ties with Beijing. Fifty-two percent said both were equally important.
The council's survey found that 66.8 percent of respondents agreed that the government should continue to develop diplomatic relations even if such moves lead to cross-strait tension.
The council said that 29.7 percent of those polled felt that diplomatic relations with China were more important than ties with other nations.
Chang Shu-ti (張樹棣), director of the council's Department of Policy Planning said one of the main differences which high-lighted the difference in the two surveys was the methodology -- the council's poll asks the same questions time after time.
"We've been asking the same questions for over 10 years now, allowing us to observe if there are any changes in response to the same questions. A one-time survey might be worth referencing, but it is different from a long-term observation of cross-strait issues," Chang told the Taipei Times yesterday.
Chang said long-term polling on issues of independence and unification, as well as the maintenance of the status quo, has led the council's consultation committee to recommend new questions.
"Because it is clear from previous polls that opinions on the issue of independence and maintaining the status quo are pretty much set, there have been recommendations that the council's poll go more in-depth in learning about what maintaining the status quo' entails for different people," Chang said.
Both Business Weekly and the council commissioned National Chengchi University's Election Study Center to conduct the polls.
"Both parties came to us with an idea of what they wanted from the poll, and we helped them formulate questions ... We've been working with the Mainland Affairs Council for a long time now, but this is the first time we worked with Business Weekly," said one center representative who asked to remain anonymous.
The representative said the center had agreed to requests from both parties that it refrain from commenting on the survey results.
She also pointed out that some of the differences in the survey results could simply be attributed the amount of money invested in each survey.
The magazine's survey was based on the responses of 1,811 participants last month while the council poll surveyed 1,153 people earlier this month. Both polls were conducted over the phone with people over the age of 20.
‘TAIWAN-FRIENDLY’: The last time the Web site fact sheet removed the lines on the US not supporting Taiwanese independence was during the Biden administration in 2022 The US Department of State has removed a statement on its Web site that it does not support Taiwanese independence, among changes that the Taiwanese government praised yesterday as supporting Taiwan. The Taiwan-US relations fact sheet, produced by the department’s Bureau of East Asian and Pacific Affairs, previously stated that the US opposes “any unilateral changes to the status quo from either side; we do not support Taiwan independence; and we expect cross-strait differences to be resolved by peaceful means.” In the updated version published on Thursday, the line stating that the US does not support Taiwanese independence had been removed. The updated
‘CORRECT IDENTIFICATION’: Beginning in May, Taiwanese married to Japanese can register their home country as Taiwan in their spouse’s family record, ‘Nikkei Asia’ said The government yesterday thanked Japan for revising rules that would allow Taiwanese nationals married to Japanese citizens to list their home country as “Taiwan” in the official family record database. At present, Taiwanese have to select “China.” Minister of Foreign Affairs Lin Chia-lung (林佳龍) said the new rule, set to be implemented in May, would now “correctly” identify Taiwanese in Japan and help protect their rights, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs said in a statement. The statement was released after Nikkei Asia reported the new policy earlier yesterday. The name and nationality of a non-Japanese person marrying a Japanese national is added to the
AT RISK: The council reiterated that people should seriously consider the necessity of visiting China, after Beijing passed 22 guidelines to punish ‘die-hard’ separatists The Mainland Affairs Council (MAC) has since Jan. 1 last year received 65 petitions regarding Taiwanese who were interrogated or detained in China, MAC Minister Chiu Chui-cheng (邱垂正) said yesterday. Fifty-two either went missing or had their personal freedoms restricted, with some put in criminal detention, while 13 were interrogated and temporarily detained, he said in a radio interview. On June 21 last year, China announced 22 guidelines to punish “die-hard Taiwanese independence separatists,” allowing Chinese courts to try people in absentia. The guidelines are uncivilized and inhumane, allowing Beijing to seize assets and issue the death penalty, with no regard for potential
‘UNITED FRONT’ FRONTS: Barring contact with Huaqiao and Jinan universities is needed to stop China targeting Taiwanese students, the education minister said Taiwan has blacklisted two Chinese universities from conducting academic exchange programs in the nation after reports that the institutes are arms of Beijing’s United Front Work Department, Minister of Education Cheng Ying-yao (鄭英耀) said in an exclusive interview with the Chinese-language Liberty Times (the Taipei Times’ sister paper) published yesterday. China’s Huaqiao University in Xiamen and Quanzhou, as well as Jinan University in Guangzhou, which have 600 and 1,500 Taiwanese on their rolls respectively, are under direct control of the Chinese government’s political warfare branch, Cheng said, citing reports by national security officials. A comprehensive ban on Taiwanese institutions collaborating or
RSS