The Pentagon has warned that Taiwan's military superiority in the Taiwan Strait is being steadily eroded by China's military modernization process, a decline in local defense spending and a "lack of political consensus" on how to deal with the threat of an attack by China.
In its latest annual report to Congress on China's military capabilities and strategies, released on Friday, the US Defense Department also suggested that Beijing may be rethinking its strategy of trying to isolate President Chen Shui-bian (
But, like similar reports in recent years, it said that the main focus of China's short- and medium-term military modernization is to prepare for a possible attack on Taiwan to force unification with the island, if necessary.
After 20 years of Chinese economic development and military improvements, "the cross-strait balance of power is steadily shifting in China's favor," the report says.
"The People's Liberation Army's offensive capabilities improve each year and provide Beijing with an increasing number of credible options to intimidate or actually attack Taiwan," it says.
On the political front, the report says, "since Chen's March 2004 re-election, Beijing likely has launched an internal debate to assess whether its previous strategy of isolating him by expanding contacts with political and economic Taiwan elite who traditionally have held more favorable views toward unification need to be discarded in favor of a different mix of political, economic, and diplomatic carrots and sticks."
However, the report says, Beijing continues to see the need to "maintain a creditible potential to deliver swift and decisive military force against Taiwan" as a complement to "political, economic and cultural coercion."
The report devotes a great deal of space to Taiwan's continued military shortcomings.
"Taipei's military challenges are not lost on Beijing. The island's apparent lack of political consensus over addressing them with substantially increased defense spending is undoubtedly seen as an encouraging trend in Beijing.
"Taiwan's declining defense spending comes at a time when the island's need to improve its own deterrent options is apparent."
The Pentagon has exerted increasing pressure on Chen's government since he was first elected to boost defense spending and find a way to purchase the arms package that US President George W. Bush agreed to make available in April, 2001.
The Pentagon has long been concerned that Taiwan's defensive weakness might encourage an attack by China. This message was intensified over the recent presidential campaign when China issued a barrage of invasion threats, leading US Assistant Secretary of State James Kelly to warn Chen in April to take the threats seriously.
Behind the concern is Washington's commitment under the Taiwan Relations Act to be prepared to come to Taiwan's defense, a prospect that worries the Bush administration at a time in which it is heavily militarily committed in Iraq and elsewhere.
The report puts the number of missiles facing Taiwan across the Strait at "about 500," using a figure from last year. This differs from a statement by US Deputy Assistant Defense Secretary Richard Lawless in April when he told a congressional committee that "the deployed inventory number 500 to 550 SRBM's [short range ballistic missiles]."
The report also drops earlier Pentagon assertions that the number is growing at 75 SRBMs a year, saying only that the number "probably will increase considerably in the next few years."
BAIL APPEALS: The former vice premier was ordered to be held incommunicado despite twice being granted bail and paying a total of NT$12 million in bond The Taoyuan District Court yesterday ordered the detention of former vice premier Cheng Wen-tsan (鄭文燦), who is being investigated for alleged corruption while serving as Taoyuan mayor from December 2014 to December 2022, and that he be held incommunicado. The court made the ruling during a bail hearing after prosecutors appealed its bail ruling twice. Cheng on Saturday was released after posting bail of NT$5 million (US$153,818). However, after prosecutors lodged an appeal, the High Court on Monday revoked the original ruling and ordered the Taoyuan District Court to hold another bail hearing. On Tuesday, the district court granted bail to Cheng a second
The Thai government on Friday announced that Taiwanese would be allowed to stay in the country for up to 60 days per entry, under the Southeast Asian country’s visa-free program starting from today. Taiwan is among 93 countries included in the Thai visa-waiver program, which has been expanded from 57 countries, with the visa-exempt entry extended from 30 to 60 days. After taking office last year, Thai Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin has vowed to grant more visa waivers to foreign travelers as part of efforts to stimulate tourism. The expanded visa-waiver program was on Friday signed by Thai Minister of the Interior Anutin
PEACE AND SECURITY: China’s military ambitions present ‘the greatest strategic challenge to Japan and the world, Japan’s annual defense white paper said yesterday Japan yesterday warned that China risked escalating tensions with Taiwan with an increase in military exercises that appeared aimed in part at readying Beijing’s forces for a possible invasion. Japan’s annual assessment of security threats, including those posed by China, North Korea and Russia, comes as Taiwan closely monitors Chinese People’s Liberation Army air and sea exercises, including one with the Shandong aircraft carrier in the Pacific Ocean. The drills are the latest in a series including maneuvers in the Taiwan Strait last year that a senior US general said would be key to any invasion. “Because of that increase in military activity,
HAN KUANG: The exercises, which are to run from July 22 to 26, will feature unscripted war games and a decentralized command and control structure, military officers said The armed forces would for the first time test new rules of engagement (ROE) at this month’s annual Han Kuang exercises, the Ministry of National Defense (MND) said yesterday. The exercises, which are to run from July 22 to 26, will feature unscripted war games, and a decentralized command and control structure, military officers told a news conference in Taipei. ROE cards would be issued to select combat troops to test their ability to function without tight control, they said. The most recent edition of the rules was published last year, they said. One of the cards’ two templates identifies enemy targets that soldiers