Philippine President Gloria Arroyo looked likely to defeat movie star Fernando Poe, Jr in national elections yesterday, one exit poll showed, after millions of Filipinos voted amid scattered violence.
After polls closed at 3pm, voter interviews by independent radio network dzRH showed Arroyo leading Poe, the strongest of her four rivals, by 6 to 8 percentage points -- roughly in line with surveys just before the election.
The winner will lead this largely Roman Catholic nation of 82 million people for the next six years, facing challenges from corruption and insurgencies to dire poverty, huge debts and a weak economy.
The official results will take a month, although a count by an independent watchdog was to give a clearer picture late yesterday and an accurate prediction within a week.
At least 20 people were killed on Sunday and yesterday, pushing the death toll in election-related violence above 100 since mid-December. Bombs exploded in several areas of the archipelago, where thousands of powerful local posts were also up for grabs.
"I am praying for peace and unity in our country," said Arroyo, a close ally in the US-led war on terror, after voting on a steamy tropical morning in her home province of Pampanga.
A 12-percent bloc of undecided voters, cheating and security threats are wild cards that make the outcome far from certain.
"If the margin of victory [for Arroyo] is 2 percent, then you have the chance the opposition will use that as an excuse to raise holy hell," said Scott Harrison, managing director of Manila-based risk consultancy Pacific Strategies & Assessments. "The violence and the cheating meets my expectations because every election is plagued by that."
Arroyo, 57, a US-trained economist and daughter of a former president, has the support of big business, charismatic Christian groups and much of the political elite.
Poe, 64, who left school at 15, inherited the poor supporters of deposed president Joseph Estrada. He was also backed by Imelda Marcos, the widow of dictator Ferdinand Marcos, whose two-decade rule ended in 1986 in the first of two "people power" uprisings.
About 230,000 soldiers and police went on red alert after warnings of attacks by Islamic militants, even though feuds between candidates and clashes with communist rebels caused most of the deaths during the 90-day campaign.
"I do not see major change after this election, but still I am hoping for the sake of my little boy," Rocky Gazizto said at a polling station in Poe's home district of San Juan, a suburb of Manila.
Poe, in a pink polo shirt and his trademark dark glasses, was mobbed by supporters as he voted at a school in San Juan.
"Peace to all," the strong, silent and gun-toting star of 282 films said in a typically brief statement.
Sameer Goel, foreign exchange strategist at Bank of America in Singapore, said investors would be concerned about unrest and allegations of irregularities over the next few days.
"But unless there were to be a major incident, markets are unlikely to be rattled by just this," he said.
Nearly two decades after the protests that toppled Marcos, the country faces widespread corruption and debts that eat up one-third of state spending, leaving little to lift about 30 million people out of crushing poverty.
"The same families and political groupings dominate the political firmament, backed by the same moneyed supporters," the Philippine Star newspaper said in an editorial.
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