Sat, Feb 07, 2004 page1

• US not doing enough to stop referendum: China

  • NT TIMES NEWS SERVICE
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  Beijing is putting pressure on the Bush administration to intervene more decisively to prevent Taiwan from holding a referendum on relations with China, calling the planned vote a "dangerous provocation" that could lead to a confrontation.

  Beijing sent a mission to Washington this week to urge the US to take more concrete steps to rein in President Chen Shui-bian (陳水扁), a Chinese foreign ministry official said. Chen has repeatedly played down statements from US President George W. Bush and the US Department of State expressing opposition to the referendum plan.

  The Chinese effort reflects growing concern in Beijing that the Taiwan problem is becoming more acute, even though Chen recently softened the language of his proposed referendum and offered to resume talks with China if he wins re-election on March 20. Some officials and analysts in Beijing are alarmed that Chen has pushed ahead with the plebiscite despite US opposition.

  A foreign ministry official, who declined to be identified by name, said a request for more active intervention was conveyed to Deputy Secretary of State Richard Armitage, who visited Beijing late last week. The official said a further appeal to the US to take firmer steps to derail the referendum was relayed by Chen Yunlin (陳雲林), the head of the Taiwan Affairs Office of China's State Council, who met State Department officials in Washington this week.

  Asking the US to play an intermediary role with Taiwan breaks a longstanding taboo in Beijing, where officials have often criticized Washington for meddling in relations between China and Taiwan. As such, it shows how limited China's options are for dealing with the matter, which some analysts here fear could lead to a military clash if its is not resolved soon.

  "The United States has taken the right attitude toward the problem and realizes the motives of Chen Shui-bian," said Xu Bodong, a specialist on Taiwan affairs in Beijing. "But American opposition has not been very firm and I'm afraid that this is leading to a serious misunderstanding in Taiwan."

  The request puts the Bush administration in an awkward position. When Bush expressed his concern about Chen's referendum plan in December, during a visit to Washington by Chinese Prime Minister Wen Jiabao (溫家寶), he was criticized by neoconservatives and some pro-Taiwan members of Congress who maintain that the US should support Taiwan against China.

  But the administration is determined to prevent a flare-up over Taiwan at a time when it is focused on Iraq. The administration is also depending heavily on China to help resolve the North Korean nuclear crisis. Just this week, China announced that it had arranged a new round of multilateral talks involving North Korea to be held in Beijing beginning later this month.

  It is unclear whether the Bush administration is willing to take tougher steps against Chen if he continues to pursue the referendum plan, as appears likely. The pro-Taiwan lobby in Washington firmly opposes Chinese calls to curtail arms sales to Taiwan and limit contacts between American and Taiwanese officials. Bush has greatly increased arms sales and allowed a broader range of official contacts.

  At issue is Chen's plan to hold a referendum on March 20 addressing ties with China. Under the current wording, voters would decide whether to increase military spending if China does not remove missiles aimed at Taiwan. A second question would ask whether voters favor opening negotiations with Beijing.

  While the questions seem relatively innocuous, China has argued that Chen is trying to set a precedent of putting issues of sovereignty to a popular vote, potentially paving the way for a formal vote on Taiwanese independence.

  The Bush administration, reiterating longstanding policy, says it opposes unilateral steps to disrupt the status quo, and has backed China's view that a referendum of the sort Chen has proposed would upset it.

  Administration officials have stuck to that position despite repeated appeals from Taiwan, which has said that the referendum is not intended to alter the status quo. Armitage reiterated the administration's concerns during his visit to China last week, even after Chen revised the wording.

  Chinese military officials this week described the revised referendum as a major challenge to Chinese sovereignty, signaling that the Beijing leadership could respond harshly if Taiwan's leaders refuse to back down.

  A prominent article in this week's issue of Outlook, a weekly current affairs magazine, carried essays by two senior academics with military rank, both of whom made clear that the military would treat Taiwan's insistence on holding the referendum as a step toward independence.

  "Chen Shui-bian's persistence in pursuing this provocative referendum shows that he is absolutely dead set in going down the road of independence," Colonel Luo Yuan of the Chinese Academy of Military Sciences wrote.

  "He must not make a big miscalculation and mistake restraint for weakness," Luo continued.

  Policy statements on sensitive topics like Taiwan cannot be published in major newspapers or magazines in China without high-level approval.

  Yet Beijing is also eager to avoid bellicose steps that could end up strengthening Chen's bid for re-election and hurting Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) Chairman Lien Chan (連戰).

  Lien says he favors improving relations with China and has accused Chen of jeopardizing Taiwan's security by challenging Beijing to an unnecessary duel.

  Officials in Beijing are aware that threats to use force could persuade independence-minded voters in Taiwan to rally to Chen's side and boost his chances in the upcoming election, which is now considered to be neck and neck.

  Xu said China's need to show restraint has forced it to rely on American help.

  "Taiwan is very close to America, so America can clearly have influence if it chooses," Xu said.

  "But there are signs that America is not really doing everything it can," Xu said.
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