China’s expansionist policies since Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平) came to power — which include the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) efforts to reformulate the world order in its own image, as well as its “united front” tactics targeting educational and political institutions, industry and cyberspace — are increasingly setting off alarm bells in governments around the world.
As other nations are waking up to the threat posed by the CCP’s hegemonic intentions, Taiwan’s experiences and positioning are seen in greater relief.
The nation’s experience of China’s bullying and suppression, its value as an Asian democracy, the strategic geopolitical importance of its location within the first island chain and the US’ guarantees of protection are being given new importance.
In a news release on Monday last week introducing the bipartisan Taiwan Allies International Protection and Enhancement Initiative (TAIPEI) Act, US Senator Bob Menendez was quoted as saying that China is continuing “its quest for dominance through predatory diplomatic and economic practices.”
He also said that the bill would serve “as a recommitment by the United States Congress to a comprehensive, durable and mutually beneficial US-Taiwan relationship and partnership,” as well as an “affirmation of Taiwan’s place in the international community.”
The bill, introduced by Menendez and fellow senators Cory Gardner, Marco Rubio and Ed Markey, is a response to the severing of diplomatic ties by the Gambia, El Salvador, Sao Tome and Principe, Panama, the Dominican Republic and Burkina Faso in favor of ties with Beijing since President Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文) was elected in 2016 “due to Chinese pressure and bullying tactics,” the news release said.
Rubio spoke of China’s “insidious agenda to isolate Taiwan,” which he said “cannot go unanswered.”
The opening lines of the bill say that the 1979 Taiwan Relations Act (TRA) stipulates that it is US policy to maintain the ability to “resist any resort to force or other forms of coercion that would jeopardize the security, or the social or economic system, of the people on Taiwan.”
This is undeniably what the CCP is doing, and has been doing for decades.
The bill also says that the CCP has intensified its efforts to pressure Taiwan since Tsai’s election, and that Tsai believes the severance of ties is “part of a series of diplomatic and military acts of coercion.”
Whether the bill passes, its legislative intent — to strengthen Taiwan’s standing in the world by having the US monitor the CCP’s efforts to induce Taiwan’s diplomatic allies to switch ties, and to use the US’ diplomatic and foreign aid to prevent this from happening — signals a level of awareness and urgency in Washington that is welcome to Taiwan.
The bill’s wording is also welcome. Reaffirming the US’ responsibilities in the TRA, recognizing that the CCP’s efforts at coercion are real and intensifying, reacknowledging the value of Taiwan’s democratic and open society, and promising to improve Taiwan’s international engagement are all important words from a crucial ally.
Despite Washington’s adherence to its “one China” policy, the wheels of policymaking and the renewed wariness of the CCP’s ambitions under the current US administration are slowly inching things in Taiwan’s favor.
In their recent op-ed “Trump Should Rein In Taiwan” in Foreign Policy magazine, Christopher Chivvis and Stephen Wertheim argued that the US should pressure President William Lai (賴清德) to “tone it down” to de-escalate tensions in the Taiwan Strait — as if Taiwan’s words are more of a threat to peace than Beijing’s actions. It is an old argument dressed up in new concern: that Washington must rein in Taipei to avoid war. However, this narrative gets it backward. Taiwan is not the problem; China is. Calls for a so-called “grand bargain” with Beijing — where the US pressures Taiwan into concessions
The term “assassin’s mace” originates from Chinese folklore, describing a concealed weapon used by a weaker hero to defeat a stronger adversary with an unexpected strike. In more general military parlance, the concept refers to an asymmetric capability that targets a critical vulnerability of an adversary. China has found its modern equivalent of the assassin’s mace with its high-altitude electromagnetic pulse (HEMP) weapons, which are nuclear warheads detonated at a high altitude, emitting intense electromagnetic radiation capable of disabling and destroying electronics. An assassin’s mace weapon possesses two essential characteristics: strategic surprise and the ability to neutralize a core dependency.
Chinese President and Chinese Communist Party (CCP) Chairman Xi Jinping (習近平) said in a politburo speech late last month that his party must protect the “bottom line” to prevent systemic threats. The tone of his address was grave, revealing deep anxieties about China’s current state of affairs. Essentially, what he worries most about is systemic threats to China’s normal development as a country. The US-China trade war has turned white hot: China’s export orders have plummeted, Chinese firms and enterprises are shutting up shop, and local debt risks are mounting daily, causing China’s economy to flag externally and hemorrhage internally. China’s
US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平) were born under the sign of Gemini. Geminis are known for their intelligence, creativity, adaptability and flexibility. It is unlikely, then, that the trade conflict between the US and China would escalate into a catastrophic collision. It is more probable that both sides would seek a way to de-escalate, paving the way for a Trump-Xi summit that allows the global economy some breathing room. Practically speaking, China and the US have vulnerabilities, and a prolonged trade war would be damaging for both. In the US, the electoral system means that public opinion