After comparing two recent polls — which have received little media attention — with other documentation, I found that although there were a few perplexing outliers, the polls revealed some meaningful findings worth analyzing.
One poll released by my-formosa.com on March 27 was only released online, while the other, by the Cross-Strait Policy Association released on March 29, was announced at a news conference.
My-formosa.com is pan-greenleaning, while the association spans the green-blue spectrum. The organizations conducting the polling were Taiwan Indicators Survey Research and the Greater Social Survey Center respectively, neither of which appear to have a strong political preference. It would therefore be inappropriate to interpret the differences between the polls along the political divide.
Overall, the polls suggest that Taiwanese continue to keep a close watch on President Tsai Ing-wen’s (蔡英文) policy performance and administration and that although the public have confidence in the administration, a majority is unhappy with its performance.
According to the association’s poll, 42.5 percent of the respondents were happy with Tsai’s performance, while 54.1 percent were unhappy.
My-formosa’s results are much more negative, with only 29.5 percent of respondents saying they were happy with Tsai’s performance and 58 percent saying they were unhappy. Only 39.8 of respondents said that they trust Tsai, while 45.7 said they did not.
In both polls, the disapproval rating is more than 50 percent, with 45 percent to 50 percent of respondents saying that they did not trust the government. However, my-formosa also had a high percentage of respondents who did not express an opinion: 12.5 percent of its respondents expressed no opinion about Tsai’s performance and 14.5 percent gave no clear answer when asked whether they trust her.
So far there has been no sign that the Tsai administration’s approval rating has rebounded and the polls could send an alarming messages to her and the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP).
Tsai’s approval and trust ratings are deeply influenced by people’s political beliefs. The increasing polarization of public opinion is worrying as it suggests an unhealthy and unwanted political trend.
Both polls included many questions about cross-strait relations and revealed some interesting findings.
One of the questions in the my-formosa poll — “How have cross-strait relations changed since the Tsai administration took office?” — is easy to answer. More than half of the respondents — 51.2 percent — said they had deteriorated, while 36.8 percent said they had not changed or has stayed more or less the same. This is an indication of increasing political polarization among the public.
This is further reflected when respondents were asked what they think caused the changes, as pan-green supporters generally blamed the Chinese government, while pan-blue supporters blamed the national government.
The poll also asked respondents whether they accept the “one China” article in the Constitution, which stipulates that the Republic of China (ROC) includes China. Although more than half of the respondents — 54 percent — said it was unacceptable, about one-third said it was acceptable.
Meanwhile, more than 70 percent clearly said they cannot accept Beijing’s “one China” principle or treating Taiwan as a part of China, while less than 15 percent of the respondents said that it is acceptable. This shows that whether a person supports the “one China” article in the Constitution or Beijing’s “one China” principle continues to be influenced by their political preferences.
The association poll revealed that more than 77.2 percent of the people surveyed think Beijing has become unfriendly to Taiwan since the Tsai administration took office. However, 69.2 percent of respondents approve of Tsai’s cross-strait policies and 74 percent of respondents support her commitment to maintaining the “status quo.” Interestingly, 43.3 percent of respondents said Taiwan is showing the appropriate amount of friendliness to Beijing. While 38.1 percent said Taiwan is not being friendly enough, 8.5 percent said it is being too friendly, and 10.1 percent did not express an opinion.
Another equally important finding is the Taiwanese public’s aversion to Beijing’s so-called “1992 consensus.” Of the people surveyed, 67.8 percent clearly said they cannot accept Beijing’s demand that the consensus serve as a prerequisite for cross-strait talks, while 25.3 percent said it is acceptable.
Respondents answered the question differently not only based on the party they support, but also depending on age. Taiwanese under the age of 40 generally have a very unfavorable opinion of China. Respondents aged between 20 and 29 — the generation considered “naturally pro-independence” — have an even stronger dislike for China.
When compared, the seemingly unrelated poll results offer answers to an important question: What is behind Tsai’s low approval ratings? Is it because of her domestic policies or her approach to cross-strait issues?
Tsai is well known for her prudent approach to foreign and cross-strait policies, which are based on her commitment to maintaining the cross-strait “status quo” and avoiding conflict. This approach has won the support of a majority of the public, irrespective of which party they support.
Indeed, the public have their own opinions on how and when Taiwanese sovereignty and dignity should be safeguarded. They understand that the current political standoff between Taiwan and China is due to Beijing’s insistence.
Therefore, the main cause of Tsai’s low approval ratings must be her domestic policies, including a series of reforms her administration has been promoting.
A commentator has said that Tsai has “neither fixed anything nor made anything better,” clearly referring to her domestic policies.
Since the polls suggest that Taiwanese approve of the DPP’s cross-strait and foreign policies, Tsai should focus on domestic policy. As the Tsai administration pushes for reform, it should work not only to fix what is broken, but also to improve what is good.
To prevent making the same mistakes as it did while promoting the five-day workweek, the Tsai administration should pay special attention to the time frame within which it wants to promote pension reform; it should also not back down on the handling of the Chinese Nationalist Party’s (KMT) ill-gotten assets, especially as they have a good legal basis for their argument.
Meanwhile, as it pushes for judicial reform, the administration must patiently break the resistance of the conservatives who control the judicial system. Reform means taking advantage of the majority that craves change, not overestimating the “silent support for reform” and not ignoring the backlash from anti-reform activists who keep making their voices heard.
Furthermore, the Tsai administration must take advantage of the cooling between Taiwan and China and develop economic strategies that prioritize the nation.
With 75 percent of Taiwanese saying that they are looking forward to the Executive Yuan’s Forward-looking Infrastructure Construction Project, the Cabinet must do all it can to follow through on the project.
Moreover, the nation needs more policies that can help improve the economy and substantially improve people’s daily lives.
Michael Hsiao is an adviser to the Presidential Office.
Translated by Tu Yu-an
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