On Tuesday, a headline in the Chinese-language Liberty Times (the Taipei Times’ sister newspaper) stated that China might “cut the three links” between Taiwan and China, while Taiwanese officials urged the public not to panic. It is clear that Beijing is increasing the pressure on Taipei following the phone call between President Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文) and US president-elect Donald Trump last month. However, doing that could end up hurting Beijing more than Taipei.
China’s threat to cut the “three links” mainly refers to direct trade and transportation links between the two sides of the Taiwan Strait, as the issue of direct postal links has been rendered mostly irrelevant as times have changed. Today, more than 2 million Taiwanese frequently travel to China. Taiwan also invests more in China than it does in any other nation, and its trade dependence on China is in excess of 30 percent. Cutting direct trade and transportation links could cut the supply chains for some Taiwanese businesses, which would have a big impact on Taiwan. Faced with this situation, Taiwan will need time to adjust. Affected Taiwanese companies that have suppliers in other nations might still be able to meet demand, but they would have to adjust prices.
Many international companies are gradually moving their production bases from China — where labor costs and disputes are growing — and relocating to other nations, such as India and Vietnam. Taiwanese businesspeople are known for their speed in adapting to change and are likely to have made preparations. Despite the short-term impact of cutting the “three links,” it is unlikely to be a big deal in the long term. Such a move would also speed up Taiwan’s move toward economic independence.
Tsai certainly does not want to see China increasing its pressure on Taiwan’s trade and economy so soon, because it would harm her administration’s performance. However, reducing Taiwan’s dependence on China is part of her policy direction. Moreover, while cutting the “three links” would be disadvantageous to Taiwan in the short term, it would have a positive impact in the long run. Since Taiwan is an important part of the US and Japan’s new East Asia policy, the economic crisis that could result from increased Chinese pressure could prompt Washington and Tokyo to offer a hand to help Taiwan overcome its difficulties. The current direction would help Taiwan retake its place in the international business chain between the US, Japan and Taiwan.
A look at Taiwan’s economic development over the past decades shows that it has sped up when the nation moved closer to the US and Japan, and slowed when it has moved closer to China. As China is putting pressure on Taiwan by threatening to cut the “three links,” Tsai should continue to insist on her pro-US and Japan policy, because this is the direction the country must take to promote long-term development.
If China does cut the “three links,” Taiwanese enterprises and capital will move back to Taiwan. With US and Japanese assistance on advanced technologies and international marketing, incomes and employment in Taiwan would increase and industrial upgrade would speed up. The Tsai administration would then be able to accomplish its main business and administrative goals sooner rather than later.
Cutting the “three links” would not hurt Taiwan more than it does China’s economy and international credibility. How would other nations and enterprises see their Chinese business investments and supply chains? They would surely be on the alert and likely change their business deployments there, which would have a big, negative impact on China.
Moreover, Trump is trying to bring US investments back to the country to revitalize the US’ manufacturing industry; so from his perspective, Beijing’s irrational behavior would be in line with his goals.
Chinese leader Mao Zedong (毛澤東) once said: “All problems are political problems.” The Chinese move echoes the next sentence of Mao’s statement: “Politics cannot solve all problems.”
Lin Shiou-jeng is an associate professor at Chung Chou University of Science and Technology’s Department of Marketing and Logistics Management.
Translated by Eddy Chang
Concerns that the US might abandon Taiwan are often overstated. While US President Donald Trump’s handling of Ukraine raised unease in Taiwan, it is crucial to recognize that Taiwan is not Ukraine. Under Trump, the US views Ukraine largely as a European problem, whereas the Indo-Pacific region remains its primary geopolitical focus. Taipei holds immense strategic value for Washington and is unlikely to be treated as a bargaining chip in US-China relations. Trump’s vision of “making America great again” would be directly undermined by any move to abandon Taiwan. Despite the rhetoric of “America First,” the Trump administration understands the necessity of
In an article published on this page on Tuesday, Kaohsiung-based journalist Julien Oeuillet wrote that “legions of people worldwide would care if a disaster occurred in South Korea or Japan, but the same people would not bat an eyelid if Taiwan disappeared.” That is quite a statement. We are constantly reading about the importance of Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co (TSMC), hailed in Taiwan as the nation’s “silicon shield” protecting it from hostile foreign forces such as the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), and so crucial to the global supply chain for semiconductors that its loss would cost the global economy US$1
US President Donald Trump’s challenge to domestic American economic-political priorities, and abroad to the global balance of power, are not a threat to the security of Taiwan. Trump’s success can go far to contain the real threat — the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) surge to hegemony — while offering expanded defensive opportunities for Taiwan. In a stunning affirmation of the CCP policy of “forceful reunification,” an obscene euphemism for the invasion of Taiwan and the destruction of its democracy, on March 13, 2024, the People’s Liberation Army’s (PLA) used Chinese social media platforms to show the first-time linkage of three new
Sasha B. Chhabra’s column (“Michelle Yeoh should no longer be welcome,” March 26, page 8) lamented an Instagram post by renowned actress Michelle Yeoh (楊紫瓊) about her recent visit to “Taipei, China.” It is Chhabra’s opinion that, in response to parroting Beijing’s propaganda about the status of Taiwan, Yeoh should be banned from entering this nation and her films cut off from funding by government-backed agencies, as well as disqualified from competing in the Golden Horse Awards. She and other celebrities, he wrote, must be made to understand “that there are consequences for their actions if they become political pawns of
RSS