On Tuesday, Republican Donald Trump was elected US president. For Taiwanese, the most important thing about the election results is their potential effects on Taiwan-US relations, specifically on the US’ commitment to maintain peace and security in the Taiwan Strait and to provide arms to Taiwan, as well as on Taipei’s chances of joining the second round of negotiations for the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP).
Recent months have seen increased political tension between the US and China as the two compete for dominance in East Asia. Meanwhile, the Philippines’ shift toward Beijing has created a breach in the first island chain, in which it occupies a strategically important location. This could prompt the US to re-evaluate Taiwan’s strategic importance and step up cooperation with Taipei.
On the other hand, Trump is highly likely to disappoint many Asian nations. President Tsai Ing-wen’s (蔡英文) administration has been closely following the development of the TPP, as Taiwan hopes to take part in the negotiations. While US President Barack Obama is urging the US Congress to ratify the TPP before Trump takes office on Jan. 20, his chances of succeeding are slim.
The problem is that if Trump wants neither the TPP nor the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP), how will the US, Japan and the EU compete with China in the global market? Without the partnerships, Western democracies would be left with no choice but to watch the China-led Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership take center stage, and eventually Beijing would be calling the shots on global trade.
That is why Trump must make clear his trade policies in his inaugural address. If Congress does not pass the TPP and TTIP agreements, the US, Japan and other democracies in Europe would see China become even more powerful as it gains control of the global economy and trade.
Tsai’s administration, in a bid to increase Taiwan’s chances of joining the TPP talks, should focus on three areas:
First, the government should check with the members of the US Congressional Taiwan Caucus and members of the US House and Senate to discern how many supporters Taiwan has in Congress and make an effort to increase that number. Taiwanese officials based in the US should try to convince members of Congress to support Taiwan’s participation in the TPP talks.
Second, the government should communicate with the Office of the US Trade Representative to facilitate negotiations on the Trade and Investment Framework Agreement (TIFA). Only after Taiwan and the US make significant progress on TIFA will it be possible for the office to support Taiwan’s participation in the TPP talks.
Third, the government should urge the Customs Administration, banks, financial institutions, insurance companies and trading administrations, as well as private businesses, to become more liberal and international. Until Taiwanese industry can show that it is truly liberal and international, it has no right to complain about other nations’ trade obstacles directed at Taiwan.
Finally, the key to securing better arms deals with the US is knowing that Washington tends to keep certain weapons and high-tech technology to itself unless a buyer has developed the same or similar technology.
Since she took office, Tsai has stressed the need for decreasing Taiwan’s reliance on foreign arms imports and domestically manufacturing aircraft and submarines. Why not build one or two training jets and submarines to show the US what Taiwan can do in an attempt to obtain better technology from the Trump administration?
Edward Chen is a chair professor in Chinese Culture University’s Department of Political Science.
Translated by Tu Yu-an
Concerns that the US might abandon Taiwan are often overstated. While US President Donald Trump’s handling of Ukraine raised unease in Taiwan, it is crucial to recognize that Taiwan is not Ukraine. Under Trump, the US views Ukraine largely as a European problem, whereas the Indo-Pacific region remains its primary geopolitical focus. Taipei holds immense strategic value for Washington and is unlikely to be treated as a bargaining chip in US-China relations. Trump’s vision of “making America great again” would be directly undermined by any move to abandon Taiwan. Despite the rhetoric of “America First,” the Trump administration understands the necessity of
US President Donald Trump’s challenge to domestic American economic-political priorities, and abroad to the global balance of power, are not a threat to the security of Taiwan. Trump’s success can go far to contain the real threat — the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) surge to hegemony — while offering expanded defensive opportunities for Taiwan. In a stunning affirmation of the CCP policy of “forceful reunification,” an obscene euphemism for the invasion of Taiwan and the destruction of its democracy, on March 13, 2024, the People’s Liberation Army’s (PLA) used Chinese social media platforms to show the first-time linkage of three new
If you had a vision of the future where China did not dominate the global car industry, you can kiss those dreams goodbye. That is because US President Donald Trump’s promised 25 percent tariff on auto imports takes an ax to the only bits of the emerging electric vehicle (EV) supply chain that are not already dominated by Beijing. The biggest losers when the levies take effect this week would be Japan and South Korea. They account for one-third of the cars imported into the US, and as much as two-thirds of those imported from outside North America. (Mexico and Canada, while
I have heard people equate the government’s stance on resisting forced unification with China or the conditional reinstatement of the military court system with the rise of the Nazis before World War II. The comparison is absurd. There is no meaningful parallel between the government and Nazi Germany, nor does such a mindset exist within the general public in Taiwan. It is important to remember that the German public bore some responsibility for the horrors of the Holocaust. Post-World War II Germany’s transitional justice efforts were rooted in a national reckoning and introspection. Many Jews were sent to concentration camps not
RSS