Pro-China academics and media have warned President Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文) about the rise of China and urged her to take a pragmatic approach to dealing with this issue to deepen cross-strait relations.
However, what is happening on the global stage is moving in exactly the opposite direction. For more than a year, the international political climate has undergone changes advantageous to Taiwan and conducive to an alliance between Taiwan, Japan and the US. This is true economically and militarily.
From an economic perspective, pro-China media outlets base their arguments for the “one China” policy on the view that China’s economic, military and technological sectors will soon surpass the US’. The US’ GDP was US$17.9 trillion last year, while China’s was US$10.9 trillion. Pro-Chinese media say that it is unavoidable that the US will decline and China will rise.
While it is true that China’s GDP soon will overtake the US’, it is precisely because of this trend that the US must adjust its China policy, which makes it necessary for the US to form an alliance with Japan and Taiwan.
China’s economy began to boom in the 1990s, and the US hoped that this would prompt China to reform and become more free and democratic.
However, reality has developed in the opposite direction: China has relied on state capitalism to grow stronger and it is rapidly developing its armed forces. As a totalitarian state, it is vowing to change the rules of the game on the international stage.
To safeguard the US’ national interest as China’s GDP approaches its own, Washington has no other choice but to team up with Japan — whose GDP ranks third in the world and whose economic development has the potential to rival China’s — and Taiwan — whose GDP ranks 17th — to be able to maintain its economic advantage.
Taiwan is pushing the development of an Asian Silicon Valley project and its national defense industry, which would be two links in an alliance between the US, Japan and Taiwan. The production value of Taiwan’s semiconductor industry was NT$2.16 trillion (US$68 billion) last year, making it the world’s second-largest semiconductor hub.
From a military perspective, Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte said that he would rather team up with Russia and China than with the US, and told US President Barack Obama to “go to hell,” shocking the whole world.
Duterte is also taking action to back his statements. On Oct. 7, the Philippines informed the US that it would suspend joint patrols in the South China Sea and cancel the two nations’ annual joint military exercises, while Duterte’s planned visit to China was upgraded to a full state visit.
The Philippines and China seem to have reached an agreement to overturn the Permanent Court of Arbitration’s ruling on a case between the two nations over a disputed island in the South China Sea, which was resolved in the Philippines’ favor.
Duterte’s change of heart is a major blow to the US’ “first island chain” deployments.
However, in a “first island chain” without the Philippines, Taiwan’s military role would become even more important. Taiwan would become more crucial than any other nation in East Asia, with the exception of Japan and Australia.
Following China’s military expansion and the Philippines’ change of mind, a military alliance between the US, Japan and Taiwan would become a necessity. East Asia is set to become a battleground between totalitarian capitalism — the Chinese model — and democratic capitalism.
The Philippines’ change of mind is a gift, but such gifts also require human intervention. Democratic US presidential candidate Hillary Rodham Clinton — who is likely to become the next US president — once warned Taiwan that dependence on China will only make Taiwan weaker.
The government must direct its efforts toward thoroughly changing the policy of economic integration with China, which only serves to weaken Taiwan, and correct the mistaken view among economic officials that peaceful cross-strait development is beneficial to the nation.
The government must instead concentrate its efforts on domestic investment, while at the same time requesting that the US and Japan work to elevate Taiwan’s sovereign status and international recognition.
This is Taiwan’s way out; it is the only way out.
Huang Tien-lin is a former advisory member of the National Security Council and a former Presidential Office adviser.
Translated by Ethan Zhan and Perry Svensson
The gutting of Voice of America (VOA) and Radio Free Asia (RFA) by US President Donald Trump’s administration poses a serious threat to the global voice of freedom, particularly for those living under authoritarian regimes such as China. The US — hailed as the model of liberal democracy — has the moral responsibility to uphold the values it champions. In undermining these institutions, the US risks diminishing its “soft power,” a pivotal pillar of its global influence. VOA Tibetan and RFA Tibetan played an enormous role in promoting the strong image of the US in and outside Tibet. On VOA Tibetan,
Sung Chien-liang (宋建樑), the leader of the Chinese Nationalist Party’s (KMT) efforts to recall Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) Legislator Lee Kun-cheng (李坤城), caused a national outrage and drew diplomatic condemnation on Tuesday after he arrived at the New Taipei City District Prosecutors’ Office dressed in a Nazi uniform. Sung performed a Nazi salute and carried a copy of Adolf Hitler’s Mein Kampf as he arrived to be questioned over allegations of signature forgery in the recall petition. The KMT’s response to the incident has shown a striking lack of contrition and decency. Rather than apologizing and distancing itself from Sung’s actions,
US President Trump weighed into the state of America’s semiconductor manufacturing when he declared, “They [Taiwan] stole it from us. They took it from us, and I don’t blame them. I give them credit.” At a prior White House event President Trump hosted TSMC chairman C.C. Wei (魏哲家), head of the world’s largest and most advanced chip manufacturer, to announce a commitment to invest US$100 billion in America. The president then shifted his previously critical rhetoric on Taiwan and put off tariffs on its chips. Now we learn that the Trump Administration is conducting a “trade investigation” on semiconductors which
By now, most of Taiwan has heard Taipei Mayor Chiang Wan-an’s (蔣萬安) threats to initiate a vote of no confidence against the Cabinet. His rationale is that the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP)-led government’s investigation into alleged signature forgery in the Chinese Nationalist Party’s (KMT) recall campaign constitutes “political persecution.” I sincerely hope he goes through with it. The opposition currently holds a majority in the Legislative Yuan, so the initiation of a no-confidence motion and its passage should be entirely within reach. If Chiang truly believes that the government is overreaching, abusing its power and targeting political opponents — then