If all goes well, a new president is to be elected when the electorate go to the polls on Jan. 16 to vote in the combined presidential and legislative elections.
As the presidential inauguration is not to take place until May 20, it means there will be a four-month gap between the presidential election and the day the new president and vice president take office.
Is this four-month period reasonable? Many political observers have their doubts.
Prior to the 2012 presidential election, the presidential poll was in March and the new president and vice president were sworn in on May 20.
However, following the Central Election Commission’s decision to combine the presidential and legislative elections, the transition period between the presidential election and inauguration has been extended.
The four-month window between the election and the inauguration did not prove to be much of an issue in the presidential election four years ago, because President Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九) ended up winning another term.
However, this time around Ma is certain not to be elected again.
Therefore, concerns have been raised over what could happen during the four-month post-election transition — not to mention other challenging issues, such as whether the military will remain neutral and whether the caretaker government will refrain from making major policy changes.
After all, until Ma steps down, he is still the president, and there is no way that Taiwanese can demand that he just sit on his hands during the transition period.
While some observers remain confident, saying that democracy has taken root in Taiwan and there is no need to worry, many Taiwanese remain concerned over whether power will be transferred peacefully.
Fortunately, the lawmakers to be elected on Jan. 16 are to be sworn in and begin a new legislative session on Feb. 1.
The lawmakers should make it their priority to pass the draft government transition act, ensuring that the caretaker government of the Ma administration cannot do anything that might harm the nation’s or the public’s interests in any way.
The government transition bill has been sitting idle in the Legislative Yuan for the past seven years — with no progress made.
The passage of the act is needed to stipulate a clear delineation of the powers of incumbent presidents during the transitional window — for instance, whether incumbent presidents should be able to sign treaties with other nations and how their administrations should make use of government budgets.
Another issue that needs to be addressed is how an incumbent administration provides information, resources and training to an incoming administration.
To ensure that its newly elected representatives in the Legislative Yuan truly reflect its concerns over the transition of power, the electorate should bear in mind that votes cast for legislative candidates are just as important as votes cast for presidential candidates.
In their recent op-ed “Trump Should Rein In Taiwan” in Foreign Policy magazine, Christopher Chivvis and Stephen Wertheim argued that the US should pressure President William Lai (賴清德) to “tone it down” to de-escalate tensions in the Taiwan Strait — as if Taiwan’s words are more of a threat to peace than Beijing’s actions. It is an old argument dressed up in new concern: that Washington must rein in Taipei to avoid war. However, this narrative gets it backward. Taiwan is not the problem; China is. Calls for a so-called “grand bargain” with Beijing — where the US pressures Taiwan into concessions
The term “assassin’s mace” originates from Chinese folklore, describing a concealed weapon used by a weaker hero to defeat a stronger adversary with an unexpected strike. In more general military parlance, the concept refers to an asymmetric capability that targets a critical vulnerability of an adversary. China has found its modern equivalent of the assassin’s mace with its high-altitude electromagnetic pulse (HEMP) weapons, which are nuclear warheads detonated at a high altitude, emitting intense electromagnetic radiation capable of disabling and destroying electronics. An assassin’s mace weapon possesses two essential characteristics: strategic surprise and the ability to neutralize a core dependency.
Chinese President and Chinese Communist Party (CCP) Chairman Xi Jinping (習近平) said in a politburo speech late last month that his party must protect the “bottom line” to prevent systemic threats. The tone of his address was grave, revealing deep anxieties about China’s current state of affairs. Essentially, what he worries most about is systemic threats to China’s normal development as a country. The US-China trade war has turned white hot: China’s export orders have plummeted, Chinese firms and enterprises are shutting up shop, and local debt risks are mounting daily, causing China’s economy to flag externally and hemorrhage internally. China’s
US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平) were born under the sign of Gemini. Geminis are known for their intelligence, creativity, adaptability and flexibility. It is unlikely, then, that the trade conflict between the US and China would escalate into a catastrophic collision. It is more probable that both sides would seek a way to de-escalate, paving the way for a Trump-Xi summit that allows the global economy some breathing room. Practically speaking, China and the US have vulnerabilities, and a prolonged trade war would be damaging for both. In the US, the electoral system means that public opinion
RSS