As Taiwan’s economy relies heavily on exports, it should be vigilant against a possible domino effect caused by the escalating Greek debt crisis, as crumbling talks with its European creditors over the weekend pushed Greece to the brink of bankruptcy, which could have substantial repercussions.
Greece was expected to default on a 1.6 billion euro loan repayment to the IMF yesterday, with international creditors refusing yet another loan extension due to a lack of substantial economic reform measures.
Greece on Monday announced the closure of banks for one week and imposed capital controls after Greek bank deposits fell to an 11-year low. Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras’ announcement that its European lenders’ fresh bailout measures would be put before voters in a referendum brings the nation one step closer to exiting the euro.
Taiwanese markets suffered from the intensifying Greek debt crisis as the latest developments left investors fretting that a Greek exit from the euro would destabilize economic recovery in the eurozone and even affect the global economy.
The TAIEX took a nosedive on Monday to 9,236.1, below the monthly average of 9,300, as investors scrambled to sell equities. Foreign investors sold a net total of NT$7.1 billion (US$228.52 million) of local shares on Monday. Among Asian markets, which were the first to trade in the wake of the weekend’s developments in Greece, the Nikkei 225 stock average in Tokyo plunged 2.9 percent, while the Shanghai Composite Index tumbled 3.3 percent and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng sank 2.6 percent.
As the Greek drama played out, the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P dipped 1.95 percent and 2.09 percent overnight respectively, while the FTSE 100 in London fell 1.97 percent and the DAX in Frankfurt, Germany, plunged 3.56 percent.
For Taiwan, the Greek debt crisis might seem somewhat irrelevant given that as of April, the nation’s 37 lenders’ combined exposure to Greece totaled NT$35 million, and local insurance companies and fund brokerages do not hold any position in Greek securities, according to the Financial Supervisory Commission.
Despite the TAIEX yesterday bouncing back 0.94 percent, Taiwan should be wary, as the repercussions of the Greek debt crisis are likely to result in a weakened euro and have an impact on single-currency economies, translating into slower consumer spending and less private investment. Such a scenario would result in weakened demand for electronics. As Europe is one of the major overseas markets for Taiwan’s machine tool suppliers and electronics brands, such as Acer Inc, Asustek Computer Inc and HTC Corp, a faltering European economy and a decline in private consumption would impact negatively on local exports.
Europe is the fourth-largest export destination for Taiwanese manufacturers, accounting for 8.8 percent of exports in the first five months of this year, according to the latest statistics released by the Ministry of Finance. Exports to Europe contracted at an annual rate of 12 percent to US$10.49 billion in the first quarter, while total exports fell 5.7 percent year-on-year, marking the sixth consecutive month of annual decline, ministry data showed. Electronic products were the biggest export item, accounting for nearly 33 percent during the same period.
The statistics did not include goods exported to China and then re-exported to Europe. Including re-exported goods, Europe was the second-largest market, after China, accounting for 18 percent of Taiwan’s exports, surpassing ASEAN and the US, which accounted for 18 percent and 12 percent respectively.
Due to the effects of globalization, adverse economic conditions can affect the global economy. As Taiwan is a small economy, vulnerable to market volatility, it must prepare for major economic changes.
Concerns that the US might abandon Taiwan are often overstated. While US President Donald Trump’s handling of Ukraine raised unease in Taiwan, it is crucial to recognize that Taiwan is not Ukraine. Under Trump, the US views Ukraine largely as a European problem, whereas the Indo-Pacific region remains its primary geopolitical focus. Taipei holds immense strategic value for Washington and is unlikely to be treated as a bargaining chip in US-China relations. Trump’s vision of “making America great again” would be directly undermined by any move to abandon Taiwan. Despite the rhetoric of “America First,” the Trump administration understands the necessity of
US President Donald Trump’s challenge to domestic American economic-political priorities, and abroad to the global balance of power, are not a threat to the security of Taiwan. Trump’s success can go far to contain the real threat — the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) surge to hegemony — while offering expanded defensive opportunities for Taiwan. In a stunning affirmation of the CCP policy of “forceful reunification,” an obscene euphemism for the invasion of Taiwan and the destruction of its democracy, on March 13, 2024, the People’s Liberation Army’s (PLA) used Chinese social media platforms to show the first-time linkage of three new
If you had a vision of the future where China did not dominate the global car industry, you can kiss those dreams goodbye. That is because US President Donald Trump’s promised 25 percent tariff on auto imports takes an ax to the only bits of the emerging electric vehicle (EV) supply chain that are not already dominated by Beijing. The biggest losers when the levies take effect this week would be Japan and South Korea. They account for one-third of the cars imported into the US, and as much as two-thirds of those imported from outside North America. (Mexico and Canada, while
The military is conducting its annual Han Kuang exercises in phases. The minister of national defense recently said that this year’s scenarios would simulate defending the nation against possible actions the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) might take in an invasion of Taiwan, making the threat of a speculated Chinese invasion in 2027 a heated agenda item again. That year, also referred to as the “Davidson window,” is named after then-US Indo-Pacific Command Admiral Philip Davidson, who in 2021 warned that Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平) had instructed the PLA to be ready to invade Taiwan by 2027. Xi in 2017