A grave danger threatening national security is lurking. A critical time is approaching and abundant precursors warrant the concern. Make no mistake, the worries are not hatched from thin air.
What are these ominous signs?
The Hualien County commissioner announced that in the middle of next month, direct commercial flights between Hualien Airport and several Chinese cities would begin.
With that, a nightmarish air defense hole will be opened wide. Disguised as a commercial airliner, a Chinese military plane could easily land 200 fully equipped special operations personnel per aircraft after a flight time of less than 30 minutes. Within two hours and with half a dozen planes, a whole battalion could commandeer the airport and control the nation’s northeastern air space. Chiashan Air Base, a facility dug into a nearby mountain, would be rendered inoperable. With a lightning-quick strike, China could deny US or Japanese intervention from Guam and Okinawa.
Even more worrisome, Chinese visitors are flooding to Taiwan. Last year alone, more than 1 million were roaming the nation with almost no restrictions. Some of the visitors are believed to be saboteurs — highly trained People’s Liberation Army members. Even if the number is less than 1 percent, the potential damage they could do is horrifying. The agents, when the time comes, could mercilessly slaughter local leaders.
In the past few years, classified information about the nation’s weapon depots has most likely been compromised. In addition, a significant number of businesspeople and politicians are willing to trade Taiwan’s security for financial gain. Some retired high-ranking military officers have openly committed treason in word and deed by siding with Beijing on ceremonial occasions. Worse yet, such traitorous acts seem to be sanctioned and encouraged by the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT). A disloyal defense does not need a subversive intrusion to fail.
Against these dark forces, civilian sectors seem utterly unprepared to defend the nation. Most Taiwanese are not trained to operate the simplest of firearms, let alone semiautomatic or fully automatic guns.
Taiwanese tend to be more docile and timid when it comes to a showdown. A lack of strong core values and, if the values arise, resolve to vehemently express and defend them is true of individuals and leaders. People who instinctively submit condemn themselves to eternal slavery. This is a lesson nobody should learn by experience.
Beside the internal factors, the international environment does not look helpful. The US has its hands full dealing with events in the Middle East, north Africa, Ukraine and North Korea. US President Barack Obama’s worldview places Taiwan at best at the bottom of his agenda.
The situation is not likely to improve next year when the Republican and Democratic parties are set to engage in a fierce fight for the White House. With such high stakes on the table, neither side would spare any time for Taiwan. Given such an attention deficiency, Beijing will certainly take any opportunity it can.
Similarly, next year, Taiwan will be in an awkward position with a new leader elected five months before the current one leaves office in May.
A weakened US, a bellicose Russia, an unpredictable North Korea, a burning Ukraine, a chaotic Middle East, a nationalistic Beijing and a Taiwan infested by hostile agents, foreign and domestic, would be a perfect storm, one that forecasters should be expecting to make landfall.
Kengchi Goah is a senior research fellow at the Taiwan Public Policy Council in the US.
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