The contest to choose a Republican nominee for the US presidential election in November is in high gear. The population of Taiwanese Americans is about 1 million, so it is a significant voting bloc in deciding who will get into the White House and which party will control the US Congress on Nov. 6. It is not too early to ponder which party to support in the fall.
However, first, a summary of the protracted Republican primary race: On Super Tuesday, March 6, 10 states voted. Former US House of Representatives speaker Newt Gingrich won his home state of Georgia, former Pennsylvania senator Rick Santorum won North Dakota, Oklahoma and Tennessee, and former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney, the presumptive front-runner, won the remaining six states, including bellwether Ohio, where he eked out a 1 percentage point win over Santorum.
While Romney garnered more than half of the delegates on Super Tuesday, media observers said his slim victory in Ohio demonstrated Romney’s limited ability to connect with the average American and that his support comes mainly from the better-educated, higher-income professional groups.
His loss in Oklahoma and Tennessee means Romney’s support in the South is weak. On Tuesday, Santorum earned double wins by picking up Alabama and Mississipi, further underscoring weak support for Romney in the South.
The media have been unkind to Romney. He is not an attractive candidate. He flip-flops on issues. His awkward asides highlighting his wealth alienate struggling blue collar workers. His credentials as a conservative are suspect, and so on.
The Republican contest has pushed all the candidates to the right, with adverse consequences for the party’s prospects in November. Romney’s strong stand against illegal immigrants has eroded Latino support. Santorum is a devout Catholic who appeals to the social conservatives and evangelical wing of the Republican Party, also known as the “Grand Old Party” (GOP), but his stance on birth control has alienated women, who represent 53 percent of voters.
As of Tuesday, Romney had 495 delegates, compared with 239 for Santorum and 139 for Gingrich. With more money and better organization, Romney is expected to maintain his lead, although whether he can reach the 1,144 delegates required to clinch the nomination before the Republican Party convention is not clear.
The media tend to blame the recriminatory war of attrition within the party on Romney’s ineptitude. Actually, there have been three structural changes in the primary process that have caused this self-destructive slog.
This year both parties have adopted incentives for states to hold their primaries later in the spring. Four years ago, 80 percent of Republican delegates were chosen before March. Super Tuesday was in February, and it involved 21 Republican contests. Recent court decisions allowed unlimited amounts of money and super Political Action Committees, which enables a weak contender to linger in the race so long as he has a single wealthy backer. The proportionate apportioning of delegates also slows down the pace of the contest.
So what is ahead? It is possible the war of attrition will continue until June 5, when primaries in five states — including California (172 delegates) — will favor Romney. He is well positioned to win the nomination, but many not clinch it until the primary season is over.
Taiwanese Americans should oppose US President Barack Obama’s re-election. Despite his eloquence, Obama has little executive expertise to govern the nation effectively, nor has he exhibited the ability to make sound judgement on vital policy choices. Even though he spent US$800 billion to bail out Wall Street and stimulate the economy, the country is still in the doldrums, with unemployment remaining high at 8.3 percent. In foreign affairs, while Obama has apologized profusely for the unilateralism of the former Republican administration, he has failed to vocalize a hopeful vision for the US going forward.
Obama is the antithesis of the president the US needs in the critical years ahead.
As the world’s first liberal democracy, the US must try to promote democratic values as part of its foreign policy objectives. This role has earned respect for the US around the globe and has enhanced its ability to influence the behavior of other nations. It is an invaluable strategic soft power, which should not be casually thrown away. However, Obama has abandoned the US’ role as an advocate of democracy. In his conduct of diplomacy, Obama gives the impression that he believes democracy and autocracy are morally equivalent.
The photograph of Obama bowing to Chinese President Hu Jintao (胡錦濤) is instructive. Hu stands erect, beaming. To the Chinese, this scene conjures up a barbarian king kowtowing to the emperor of the Middle Kingdom. In contrast, when Obama granted an audience to the Dalai Lama at the White House, the latter was asked to exit through a rear pathway strewn with garbage cans.
What is most worrisome is Obama’s lack of a coherent national strategy for dealing with the myriad challenges posed by a rising China. Beijing actively touts its combination of market capitalism with state control as a more efficient model of economic development. Through its mercantilist trade policy, it aims to become the world’s largest economy, a goal that it could realize within the next several years.
US debt to China is US$1 trillion and growing. China is modernizing its armed forces at a rapid pace. The People’s Liberation Army (PLA) may already have the capability to deny the US Navy access to the Western Pacific in case of a conflict. China conducts cyberwarfare against US government agencies and defense industries. While the US is winding down its space efforts, Beijing is planning to send an astronaut to the moon and China’s space program is closely tied to the PLA.
While the Obama administration has declared its intention to enhancing its military presence in Asia, US ability to actually deter China’s increasingly aggressive behavior toward its neighbors is open to question. Obama has decided to cut the defense budget by more than US$500 billion over the next 10 years. If the US Congress fails to reduce expenditure by US$1 trillion over the next 10 years, the cut in the defense budget could double to US$1 trillion.
The downsizing of all branches of the US armed forces will render the US powerless to cope with a conflict on the Korean Peninsula or a PLA invasion of Taiwan.
Obama’s policy toward Taiwan is feckless. In 2009, on the 30th anniversary of the Taiwan Relations Act (TRA), 32 US senators sent Obama a joint letter asking him to reaffirm the TRA. Obama dismissed the letter. On his visit to Beijing in November of the same year, he signed a Sino-US joint statement in which he agreed to respect China’s core interest of territorial integrity with respect to Tibet and Taiwan. The statement said US-China relations are based on three joint communiques, but omitted any mention of the TRA. This was the first time any US president had failed to reiterate the TRA in this context.
During Taiwan’s presidential election on Jan. 14, the Obama administration took active steps to show its preference for Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) candidate Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九). After an absence of many years, it sent high-level officials to visit Taipei and announced that Taiwan would be a candidate for its visa waiver program — all just weeks before the vote.
Beijing is relentlessly striving to restore China to its historical role as the Middle Kingdom, dictating to all barbarian (ie, non--Chinese) nations. In contrast, under Obama, the US is floundering, overwhelmed by its debt burden, foreign entanglements, a weak economy and a dysfunctional legislature beset with partisan bickering.
The US needs a new president who can rekindle its national purpose of enlarging freedom around the globe, and give humanity hope for a bright future, not a world dominated by a repressive and authoritarian China.
Romney’s foreign policy advisers include experienced hands such as former UN ambassador John Bolton and Princeton University professor Aaron Friedberg. It gives hope that, unlike Obama, Romney will be able to perceive the malign intentions behind Beijing’s smiling face.
I recommend that Taiwanese Americans vote Republican both for the White House and the US Congress in November. US national security is paramount. Americans must make the right choice now to ensure that the US remains a fully independent, democratic nation.
Li Thian-hok is a freelance commentator based in Pennsylvania.
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