As the world adjusts to the rise of China, a growing number of political commentators have proposed that to avoid an arms race with Beijing and to secure its cooperation on various challenges, the US should “cede” Taiwan by revising its long--standing security commitment.
Most recently, Charles Glaser, writing in the establishment Foreign Affairs, made such a case, approaching the matter from what he described as a realist, albeit not pessimistic, perspective.
The gist of his argument stems from two assumptions. First is the belief that ongoing improvements in China’s military capabilities could make it likelier to escalate in a conflict scenario, which, if it were to get out of hand, could turn nuclear. Added to this is the belief that any attempt by the US to ensure a balance of power over Taiwan would spark an arms race.
The second assumption is that the neutralization of Taiwan (to which we will turn later) would open the door for Chinese cooperation on other difficult matters, such as the South and East China seas and other territorial disputes.
At the intersection of those assumptions lies the conclusion that it would be in the US’ best interest — both in terms of avoiding armed conflict with China and ensuring its cooperation on regional and global matters — to negate the point of contention that, according to Glaser’s view, creates -distortions in the relationship. In other words, Taiwan.
The author contends that “disagreeable” though it may be, Washington’s best option is to back away from its commitment to Taiwan, a move that somehow would magically smooth the way for better relations between the US and China “in the decades to come.”
Critics of this grand bargain, Glaser argues, would claim that Beijing would not be satisfied with such appeasement and it would be encouraged to make greater demands. This is wrong, he contends, because “not all adversaries are Hitler, and when they are not, accommodation can be an effective policy tool.”
According to Glaser’s logic, it would have been morally acceptable for civilized countries to stand by as Nazi Germany dismembered Czechoslovakia in March 1939, provided Hitler did not go any further. In this scenario, whatever fate awaited ordinary Czechs as the brown shirts took control of their government, curtailed their civil liberties and murdered dissidents remains a bearable abstract, as long as the transgressions ended there.
Perhaps even more reprehensible is Glaser’s treatment of Taiwan as a mere territory or piece of real estate to be auctioned off whenever it is -convenient for great powers to do so. His dehumanization of Taiwan entirely effaces a history and political system that are altogether different from those seen in China. However much the realist he likes to believe he is, the 23 million people who inhabit Taiwan cannot be treated as mere pawns on some grand Brzezinski chessboard.
While such thinking “outside the box” will likely gain traction in some corners, one can hope that the current leadership in the White House regards the world with more humanity than Glaser does and realizes that human beings, regardless of whether they live in freedom and democracy or under authoritarian rule, are worthy of compassion and, when needed, protection.
With the benefit of hindsight, history reserved tar and feathers for the “appeasers” in World War II, but did so for the wrong reasons. The blemish on their reputation lies not so much in their failure to realize that after Czechoslovakia would come Poland and many others, but rather in their willingness to sacrifice a weaker member of the family of nations in the first place. Just as in East Asia today, however, a militant Czechoslovakia under Nazi control would have compounded regional insecurity and likely sparked an arms race, with the result that any future conflict might have been even deadlier than the cataclysm that was visited upon Europe during those years of madness.
One thing Glaser’s article does not address is how other regional powers, such as Japan and India, would react to China suddenly extending its line of control and threatening the first island chain and beyond. As Robert Kaplan writes in his most recent book, Monsoon, “China wants desperately to integrate Taiwan into its dominion, so that it can redirect its naval energies to the Indian Ocean” and thereby escape from the Strait of Malacca dilemma.
Here, as in the 1940s Europe from our alternate scenario, the likeliest outcome would be an arms race, perhaps even the entry of Japan as a nuclear power. From then on, any future conflict — now region-wide — would risk being even more devastating.
Lastly, it is unlikely Taiwanese would go gently into the night and allow their hard-earned democracy and freedoms to be devoured by the wolves simply for the sake of regional stability, or because the US followed Glaser’s advice and “abandoned” them. They would resist, and from that resistance would come tremendous pressure on the US and its allies to act. In other words, besides highlighting his poor moral judgment, Glaser’s gamble could make armed conflict between the US and China more likely rather than less.
J. Michael Cole is deputy news editor at the Taipei Times.
US President Donald Trump has gotten off to a head-spinning start in his foreign policy. He has pressured Denmark to cede Greenland to the United States, threatened to take over the Panama Canal, urged Canada to become the 51st US state, unilaterally renamed the Gulf of Mexico to “the Gulf of America” and announced plans for the United States to annex and administer Gaza. He has imposed and then suspended 25 percent tariffs on Canada and Mexico for their roles in the flow of fentanyl into the United States, while at the same time increasing tariffs on China by 10
As an American living in Taiwan, I have to confess how impressed I have been over the years by the Chinese Communist Party’s wholehearted embrace of high-speed rail and electric vehicles, and this at a time when my own democratic country has chosen a leader openly committed to doing everything in his power to put obstacles in the way of sustainable energy across the board — and democracy to boot. It really does make me wonder: “Are those of us right who hold that democracy is the right way to go?” Has Taiwan made the wrong choice? Many in China obviously
US President Donald Trump last week announced plans to impose reciprocal tariffs on eight countries. As Taiwan, a key hub for semiconductor manufacturing, is among them, the policy would significantly affect the country. In response, Minister of Economic Affairs J.W. Kuo (郭智輝) dispatched two officials to the US for negotiations, and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co’s (TSMC) board of directors convened its first-ever meeting in the US. Those developments highlight how the US’ unstable trade policies are posing a growing threat to Taiwan. Can the US truly gain an advantage in chip manufacturing by reversing trade liberalization? Is it realistic to
Last week, 24 Republican representatives in the US Congress proposed a resolution calling for US President Donald Trump’s administration to abandon the US’ “one China” policy, calling it outdated, counterproductive and not reflective of reality, and to restore official diplomatic relations with Taiwan, enter bilateral free-trade agreement negotiations and support its entry into international organizations. That is an exciting and inspiring development. To help the US government and other nations further understand that Taiwan is not a part of China, that those “one China” policies are contrary to the fact that the two countries across the Taiwan Strait are independent and
RSS