On Thursday, the Taiwan Economic News reported that Taiwan’s export growth in the second quarter of this year was the highest of “Asia’s Four Dragons.” With year-on-year export growth at 46.2 percent for the quarter, along with 12.5 percent overall economic growth and a 1.1 percent inflation rate, Taiwan’s economic recovery seems certain.
Of course this will be used by President Ma Ying-jeou’s (馬英九) administration to demonstrate the government’s “correct” economic policies.
However, there is just one problem with the Ma government claiming victory in this situation: They insisted that Taiwan could not compete in Asia without signing the Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement (ECFA) with China. With the second quarter ending on June 30 of this year, just one day after the signing of the ECFA, one has to question the validity of these claims.
Trade numbers with China have also continued to soar. The Mainland Affairs Council’s Preliminary Statistic of Cross-Strait Economic Relations showed that both exports to and imports from China from Jan. 1 to May 30 this year were up more than 60 percent. Keep in mind that these data were collected well before the signing of the ECFA.
However, these numbers are nothing new. Besides the economic downturn in late 2008 and last year, which happened on Ma’s watch, trade growth and economic dynamism have been the rule, not the exception, for Taiwan. True, Taiwan’s relatively small domestic market, coupled with its dependence on trade, make it especially susceptible to global economic downturns, but then again, “Asia’s Four Dragons” are certainly no different.
In the end, these numbers should not surprise us, but yet they do, at least in some ways. Why? Well, by listening to and reading information coming from the Presidential Office over the past year or so, one would have been led to believe that Taiwan’s economy — even Taiwan itself — was on the verge of collapse. The Ma government consistently made statements arguing that without the ECFA, Taiwan and Taiwanese businesses would not survive financially. However, late last year and early this year, Taiwan not only survived in both the international and China markets, it thrived.
The China-ASEAN Free Trade Agreement (FTA), which was completed in January, was also supposed to negatively affect Taiwan’s competitiveness in the region. Given both the totals from January to May of this year and the second quarter information from the Taiwan Economic News, the FTA appeared to have no ill effects on Taiwan’s trade.
So what gives? The Ma administration must have been looking at different numbers. What else could explain such an enormous difference in information? The numbers certainly don’t lie, and even though they have yet to lead to a drop in unemployment, Taiwan businesses are certainly in no pain financially.
Could it be that the Ma administration was hoping that Taiwan businesses would no longer be competitive? This may certainly be a possibility, given the continuous push for the ECFA. It appears as though the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT)-led government was hoping against hope for a financial failure in order to justify the agreement with Beijing.
With no failure, what options do the KMT leaders have?
They can only claim that they led Taiwan through the recent financial storm. They can only claim that because of the ECFA, Taiwan survived the rough economic waters. And they can only claim that their actions have proven “correct.”
However, we know better than that.
Nathan Novak is a student of China and the Asia-Pacific region with a particular focus on cross-strait relations at National Sun Yat-sen University.
It is employment pass renewal season in Singapore, and the new regime is dominating the conversation at after-work cocktails on Fridays. From September, overseas employees on a work visa would need to fulfill the city-state’s new points-based system, and earn a minimum salary threshold to stay in their jobs. While this mirrors what happens in other countries, it risks turning foreign companies away, and could tarnish the nation’s image as a global business hub. The program was announced in 2022 in a bid to promote fair hiring practices. Points are awarded for how a candidate’s salary compares with local peers, along
China last month enacted legislation to punish —including with the death penalty — “die-hard Taiwanese independence separatists.” The country’s leaders, including Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平), need to be reminded about what the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has said and done in the past. They should think about whether those historical figures were also die-hard advocates of Taiwanese independence. The Taiwanese Communist Party was established in the Shanghai French Concession in April 1928, with a political charter that included the slogans “Long live the independence of the Taiwanese people” and “Establish a republic of Taiwan.” The CCP sent a representative, Peng
Japan and the Philippines on Monday signed a defense agreement that would facilitate joint drills between them. The pact was made “as both face an increasingly assertive China,” and is in line with Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr’s “effort to forge security alliances to bolster the Philippine military’s limited ability to defend its territorial interests in the South China Sea,” The Associated Press (AP) said. The pact also comes on the heels of comments by former US deputy national security adviser Matt Pottinger, who said at a forum on Tuesday last week that China’s recent aggression toward the Philippines in
The Ministry of National Defense on Tuesday announced that the military would hold its annual Han Kuang exercises from July 22 to 26. Military officers said the exercises would feature unscripted war games, and a decentralized command and control structure. This year’s exercises underline the recent reforms in Taiwan’s military as it transitions from a top-down command structure to one where autonomy is pushed down to the front lines to improve decisionmaking and adaptability. Militaries around the world have been observing and studying Russia’s war in Ukraine. They have seen that the Ukrainian military has been much quicker to adapt to