Recently, the hawks within China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA) have been criticizing the US in statements and articles, and within a 20-day period, China held seven military exercises in the Yellow Sea and the East China Sea. Beijing has also reiterated claims to the disputed islands in the South China Sea and opposed the many large-scale military exercises the US has held in the Asia-Pacific region, including the US battle carrier flotilla which trawled along the Chinese coast. The frequency with which the US and China have been displaying their military might lately has been usual.
The tense relations between the US and China, as well as the US Navy’s patrol along the Chinese coast, show that Washington is responding to requests from its Asian allies to put a damper on Beijing’s determination to become a hegemonic power. While the US and China share common economic interests, conflicts between the two nations over various hotspots, such as the South China Sea and the Korean Peninsula, are leading to increased posturing.
To break through the chain of islands the US and Japan are using to control China, Beijing must neutralize Taiwan. China would stand to make even greater strategic gains if it could annex Taiwan, and that is why it is trying to force Taiwan to accept the “one China” principle.
However, the US does not want Taiwan to use independence to upset China, nor does it want Taiwan to become neutral or start to lean toward China, as this would spoil the US’ overall strategic interests.
Given this situation, Taiwan must understand that not only is President Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九) leaning toward China and moving away from the US and Japan, but the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) and the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) are leaning toward the Chinese Communist Party and away from the DPP’s base. This is a highly unstable situation that could erupt at anytime.
Now even the idea that Taiwan and China should have their own interpretations of “one China” is also coming under attack. Mainland Affairs Council Minister Lai Shin-yuan (賴幸媛) recently had to make an early return to Taiwan from overseas because Beijing thought her demand that China’s “Anti-Secession” Law allowing the use of military force against Taiwan should be abolished implied that she had “ulterior motives.” Furthermore, Ma sidestepped the sensitive issue of the removal of Chinese missiles at the KMT’s recent party convention.
These developments together with the US tabling any new military arms sales to Taiwan this year, show that the relaxed cross-strait relations the Ma administration is so proud of are a result of self-denigration and defeatism.
Global Views magazine recently published an opinion poll where 47 percent of respondents said they supported the Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement (ECFA). However, 56 percent said they were not satisfied with the Ma administration and 66 percent said they believed there is no need for Taiwan and China to be unified. Twenty-nine percent supported independence for Taiwan. Only 15.6 percent said they supported “eventual unification,” while 69.9 percent opposed it.
These responses clearly show that Ma’s wishful, one-sided, cross-strait policies are tantamount to playing with fire because Beijing will not budge on its “one China” principle.
Given China’s all-pervading unification efforts, the already signed ECFA and the PLA’s talk of a mutual military trust mechanism bypassing sovereignty and a peace agreement based on the “one China” principle, we now have to wait and see how Ma will respond.
Lu I-ming is the former publisher and president of Taiwan’s Shin Sheng Daily News.
TRANSLATED BY DREW CAMERON
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