The recent assessment by the US Defense Intelligence Agency of Taiwan’s air defense status, which was delivered to Congress on Feb. 16, requires serious reflection and action, both in Taiwan and the US.
The report says there is a serious military imbalance across the Strait, with Taiwan’s fleet consisting of several types of aging aircraft that are in urgent need of upgrades and replenishment. The nation has 60 F-5s that date back to the 1960s, only half of which are reportedly operational; 126 Indigenous Defense Fighters that have limited range and combat capability; 56 Mirage 2000s sold by France in the early 1990s, classified as advanced fighters but extremely expensive to maintain; and 146 F-16 A/B fighters sold by the US in the early 1990s that are in need of upgrades.
Taiwan thus has only about 350 operational fighter aircraft, while — according to a report on China’s military power by the US Department of Defense last year — China has a total of 2,300 fighters and bomber/attack aircraft, 500 of which are stationed directly opposite Taiwan. In addition, China has at least 1,400 missiles aimed at Taiwan. Yet the US is obligated under the Taiwan Relations Act to supply sufficient defensive weaponry to Taiwan to provide for its defense, and China has yet to renounce the use of force to settle the international status of Taiwan’s sovereignty.
A first step to redress the imbalance would be for the US to agree to Taiwan’s request, first made in 2006, to sell Taiwan 66 F-16C/Ds. This would be a sound military move as well as a clear political signal to China that the US does not look kindly on the Chinese military buildup across the Taiwan Strait, which has continued unabated in spite of the “rapprochement” by the administration of President Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九).
The administration of US President Barack Obama showed that it is paying close attention to the situation when it approved the arms package announced on Jan. 29, which included PAC-III missiles and Black Hawk helicopters. It now needs to move ahead forthwith on the sale of advanced F-16s, not only because of the abovementioned growing imbalance in air power, but also because of two other important reasons.
First, during its first year in office, the Obama administration did reach out to China and attempted to be accommodating in the hope that China would reciprocate. Instead, China blocked a meaningful agreement at the Copenhagen climate summit, prevented sanctions against Iran from moving forward in the UN and reacted furiously to Obama’s meeting with the Dalai Lama.
In addition, high-level Chinese military officers have threatened sanctions against US companies involved in the arms sales to Taiwan, and even suggested that China should dump its holdings of US Treasury bonds. All this requires a firm response from the US as Chinese aggression against Taiwan will only cease if the Chinese leadership realizes that its relations with the US and Europe will suffer if it perpetuates its hostility.
A second, very practical, reason is that the production of the F-16 is nearing its end, as more countries are switching to the advanced F-35 Joint Strike Fighter. This would necessitate a decision to sell Taiwan the F-16s before the end of the year. A restart of the assembly line at a later date would be prohibitively expensive.
In Taiwan, the defense establishment is eager to move forward, and the Legislative Yuan has also shown strong support for the F-16 package: In a letter to leading members of the US Congress, a bipartisan group of Taiwanese legislators urged the sale “to maintain a viable deterrent fighting force to ensure a balance of power.”
“Our military must be able to defend our airspace, as a further deterioration in the air balance across the Strait will only encourage PRC [People’s Republic of China] aggression,” the legislators said in their letter in December.
However, Washington has had some lukewarm and conflicting signals from Taiwan on the issue. The political leadership, from Ma down, needs to make it crystal clear that it does want to move ahead and redress the balance across the Strait before it is too late and they have their backs against the wall. The Obama and Ma administrations must show steadfast resolve on the issue of defensive arms sales to Taiwan, lest risk a misinterpretation by China regarding the peaceful settlement of the Taiwan issue.
Nat Bellocchi is a former chairman of the American Institute in Taiwan and a special adviser to the Liberty Times Group. The views expressed in this article are his own.
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