Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) Legislator Chiang Lien-fu (江連福) was kicked out of the legislature after being found guilty of vote-buying by the Taiwan High Court at a second trial on Friday. Chiang is the third KMT legislator to have his election annulled because of vote-buying, following Lee E-tin (李乙廷) of Miaoli County and Chang Sho-wen (張碩文) of Yunlin County. Taoyuan County’s Liao Cheng-ching (廖正井) was given a yellow card by the Miaoli District Court, which annulled his election at the end of his first trial on vote-buying charges. Liao may be given a red and have to leave the legislature when the High Court announces its verdict in his appeal at the end of this month.
These losses come at a bad time for President Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九), who assumes the KMT chairmanship this Saturday. Although a handful of lost seats do little damage to the KMT’s absolute majority in the legislature, the by-election wins by the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) and the Non-Partisan Solidarity Union have dealt a blow to KMT morale.
Ma claims to stand for clean government, but the series of vote-buying convictions of KMT legislators has hurt these claims. The KMT remains a party built on corruption, and Ma’s personal charm cannot conceal the fact. This will put the KMT at a disadvantage in December’s elections for city mayors, county commissioners and councilors.
Once notorious for buying votes in local factions, the KMT’s control over the factions is now slipping. The party faces defections and a split vote in many electorates as the factions reject the central leadership’s choice of candidate and put forward their own instead.
Rival factions are familiar with the KMT’s channels for mobilizing voters and buying votes, and so are able to spy on one another, thus creating a balance of distrust. In last month’s legislative by-election in Yunlin County, rival factions headed by Chang Jung-wei (張榮味) and Chang Ken-hui (張艮輝) did just this; the result was that neither was able to use the money that had been set aside for buying votes — and traditional KMT voters stayed home.
The DPP won no more votes than in previous elections, but its support was enough for candidate Liu Chien-kuo (劉建國) to win by a wide margin.
If the Yunlin effect is repeated in December, the KMT’s campaign could suffer serious damage.
When Ma takes over as KMT chairman, he will lay claim to the combined powers of the presidency, the Cabinet, the legislature and the party. However, Ma has run into a series of obstacles in the past three months. First, Typhoon Morakot brought calamity to the nation, and Ma’s weak response sent his popularity to rock bottom. Now the KMT faces a crisis as factions rebel and legislators lose — or stand to lose — their seats. For Ma, nothing is going according to plan.
With his insistence on clean politics, Ma has always viewed local factions with disdain. In last year’s presidential election, his personal popularity was enough to get him elected without having to rely on local factions.
Now, however, the political situation is different. In a weakened position, Ma might be tempted to compromise with the factions. If he does so, his political halo will be damaged. Whatever Ma decides to do, there will be consequences that he would rather not face.
In their recent op-ed “Trump Should Rein In Taiwan” in Foreign Policy magazine, Christopher Chivvis and Stephen Wertheim argued that the US should pressure President William Lai (賴清德) to “tone it down” to de-escalate tensions in the Taiwan Strait — as if Taiwan’s words are more of a threat to peace than Beijing’s actions. It is an old argument dressed up in new concern: that Washington must rein in Taipei to avoid war. However, this narrative gets it backward. Taiwan is not the problem; China is. Calls for a so-called “grand bargain” with Beijing — where the US pressures Taiwan into concessions
The term “assassin’s mace” originates from Chinese folklore, describing a concealed weapon used by a weaker hero to defeat a stronger adversary with an unexpected strike. In more general military parlance, the concept refers to an asymmetric capability that targets a critical vulnerability of an adversary. China has found its modern equivalent of the assassin’s mace with its high-altitude electromagnetic pulse (HEMP) weapons, which are nuclear warheads detonated at a high altitude, emitting intense electromagnetic radiation capable of disabling and destroying electronics. An assassin’s mace weapon possesses two essential characteristics: strategic surprise and the ability to neutralize a core dependency.
Chinese President and Chinese Communist Party (CCP) Chairman Xi Jinping (習近平) said in a politburo speech late last month that his party must protect the “bottom line” to prevent systemic threats. The tone of his address was grave, revealing deep anxieties about China’s current state of affairs. Essentially, what he worries most about is systemic threats to China’s normal development as a country. The US-China trade war has turned white hot: China’s export orders have plummeted, Chinese firms and enterprises are shutting up shop, and local debt risks are mounting daily, causing China’s economy to flag externally and hemorrhage internally. China’s
US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平) were born under the sign of Gemini. Geminis are known for their intelligence, creativity, adaptability and flexibility. It is unlikely, then, that the trade conflict between the US and China would escalate into a catastrophic collision. It is more probable that both sides would seek a way to de-escalate, paving the way for a Trump-Xi summit that allows the global economy some breathing room. Practically speaking, China and the US have vulnerabilities, and a prolonged trade war would be damaging for both. In the US, the electoral system means that public opinion
RSS