Though today is the 23rd anniversary of the Democratic Progressive Party’s (DPP) founding, no one was in the mood to celebrate following the rejection of former president Chen Shui-bian’s (陳水扁) latest appeal. But party morale vastly improved with the DPP victory in Yunlin County’s legislative by-election and the rejection of a Penghu referendum on opening casinos there.
Both votes were politically significant and could indicate that the DPP is leaving the problems of the Chen era behind.
The allegations against Chen have cost the DPP dearly in elections. This has strengthened Ma, who led the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) to undisputed power. He, meanwhile, will soon take up the KMT chairmanship. But the aftermath of Typhoon Morakot has ravaged Ma’s reputation. Both parties are now at a crossroads that could lead either to strength or decline.
The Yunlin result gives the DPP its 28th legislative seat and the power to initiate impeachment proceedings against the president. Although this does not mean the DPP could successfully recall him, the change strengthens the legislature’s supervisory power. The government can no longer ignore the public as it pursues an economic cooperation framework agreement (ECFA) with China.
The DPP has always relied on party unity to fight a divided KMT. Liu Chien-kuo (劉建國) not only won Yunlin’s legislative seat, he broke Yunlin’s tradition of elections controlled by organized crime, money and factions. The fact that candidates campaigned wearing bulletproof vests and supporters of candidates were arrested buying votes is an insult to the county. Voters used their ballots to show they have had enough.
Liu has the support of Yunlin County Commissioner Su Chih-fen (蘇治芬) of the DPP. The KMT’s hopes of regaining the commissioner’s seat in the year-end elections with the help of Chang Jung-wei (張榮味) and his faction — long influential in Yunlin — are now looking dim.
The KMT had hoped to win in Yunlin and go on to breach the DPP’s “Jhuoshui River defense line” in the December elections. But with the government performing poorly and its local power base split into factions, it stood no chance in Yunlin — and the defeat could signal a threat to the party’s control of areas north of the Jhuoshui River.
In Penghu, the proposal to set up casinos was supported by the KMT-controlled county government. The party used its legislative majority to pass the Isolated Islands Construction Act (離島建設條例), which sought to dodge the Referendum Act (公民投票法) and would have allowed the casino referendum to pass if it won the majority of votes cast rather than the majority of votes of all eligible voters.
The KMT lost its decade-long bid to allow gambling in Penghu — even with local and central government forces acting in concert.
The proposal was depicted as a blank check that would bring wealth to the islands, but the KMT failed to answer concerns about the negative social effects of gambling. In rejecting the proposal, Penghu residents voted for their values. The KMT didn’t just lose a referendum, it lost the moral high ground.
The by-election and referendum results indicate that Ma can no longer count on the Chen case to undermine support for the DPP. To avoid a major loss in the year-end elections, Ma will have to concentrate on winning back public support.
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