Fri, Aug 28, 2009 page9

• Yukio Hatoyama faces many obstacles to change in Tokyo

  Analysts have warned of the Democratic Party of Japan’s lack of experience in running the government as only a handful of members have any experience

  • By Chie Matsumoto / DPA
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  Japan might be standing at a turning point in its history as parliamentary elections appear likely to unseat the party that has ruled Japan nearly continuously for more than 50 years.

  With judgment day on Sunday, the main opposition party, the Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ), is leading in the latest opinion polls with 36 percent voter support. The figure is 20 points higher than that for the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP).

  Voters have increasingly become dissatisfied with the coalition government of the LDP and the New Komeito Party after it went through three prime ministers in three years. Current Japanese Prime Minister Taro Aso has failed to demonstrate strong leadership, his administration has neglected to deal with long-term economic problems, a series of scandals has rocked the LDP and the party has failed to address domestic concerns, such as Japan’s strained pension system and its ageing, shrinking population.

  Many analysts said the DPJ, which won control of the upper House of Councilors in 2007 elections, has a good chance of repeating that victory on Sunday in the House of Representatives by securing a majority of 241 seats or more in the more powerful, lower chamber of the Diet. Such a result would more than double the 112 seats the party now holds.

  DPJ President Yukio Hatoyama, who is likely to become prime minister if his party wins, has promised voters he will bring change to Japan by cutting wasteful spending, but not imposing a burden on citizens to pay back the national debt, which, at about ¥800 trillion (US$8.5 trillion), exceeds 160 percent of the nation’s GDP.

  Hatoyama has also promised to revitalize the world’s second-largest economy by increasing household incomes and encouraging spending.

  Voters are hopeful, but the promises sound too good to be true to political observers, and the DPJ faces numerous obstacles to bringing about the change it has promised for Japan.

  Some analysts have criticized the party’s economic stimulus plan to draw Japan out of its worst post-War economic slump as being unrealistic.

  While Hatoyama said he plans to review the current government’s record-high stimulus package, his party’s manifesto promises to raise monthly child allowances, scrap expressway tolls and gasoline taxes as part of its plan to stimulate consumer spending.

  It said it could secure funds for its proposed programs by cutting public works projects and increasing domestic demand, while at the same time holding off on a sales tax increase for the next four years.

  The LDP has questioned how the DPJ’s proposals would be paid for, called them a “pipe dream” and saying they would require “magic” to be realized.

  Analysts and the LDP have also warned of the DPJ’s lack of experience in running the government. Only a handful of party members have experience serving in ministerial posts or in the prime minister’s office. The party is largely made up of LDP-defectors, social democrats and former trade unionists.

  “The DPJ has many young, brilliant candidates, but the party does not have enough competent personnel,” political analyst Takao Toshikawa said.

  The DPJ’s most experienced, foremost strategist is former party leader and seasoned politician Ichiro Ozawa, who stepped down in May amid a political funding scandal.

  His successor, Hatoyama, has also found himself entangled in the ongoing investigation of the donation scandal, in which his office used deceased people’s names to report about ¥22 million in contributions made from 2005 to this year.

  Even though Ozawa, who left the LDP in frustration at the party’s inability to reform, gave up the DPJ’s top post, his influence within the party remains strong, analysts said — enough that he might act as “a shadow shogun” to Hatoyama if the party takes power.

  “Hatoyama doesn’t have enough experience and stratagem compared with Ozawa,” Toshikawa said.

  Ozawa’s reputation of being a shrewd manipulator and his success and experience in the kind of backroom politics the voters now abhor may prove as big a burden to the DPJ as his experience is a boon.

  A third issue for the DPJ should it win is how it would deal with Japan’s powerful bureaucrats, who have a close relationship with the LDP and helped keep that party in power for so long.

  Hatoyama has argued that politics in Japan is led by its bureaucrats rather than its politicians. The 62-year-old centrist has vowed to wrest control of the budget and policy from Japan’s ministries — a job that political observers said would be a monumental one and would also determine the success of a DPJ-led government.

  The only non-LDP governments to run Japan since 1955, however, lasted less than a year in the 1990s, in part because of bureaucratic resistance to their policies. Even the popular, reform-minded LDP premier Junichiro Koizumi, who left office in 2006, found it difficult to push change past the entrenched civil service.

  While disgruntlement among voters could hand the DPJ an election victory and bring about a historic change in Japan’s government, it would far from ensure DPJ-touted reforms.

  Before he could implement any of the DPJ’s planned policies, Hatoyama would need to exercise strong leadership and gain the trust of bureaucrats and voters to bring his promised change to Japan, analysts said.
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