Wonderful, Wonderful Copenhagen, a popular song from the 1952 film musical Hans Christian Andersen, will probably be played many times this fall, as world leaders will be gathering in the Danish capital in December (and in New York in September) to confront the challenge of climate change. But unless international thinking gets considerably more realistic in a hurry, what happens in Copenhagen will be anything but wonderful.
It should come as no surprise that there is little consensus on a comprehensive accord that would have a meaningful impact on the world’s climate. Governments will not sacrifice near and medium-term economic growth for long-term environmental benefits. This is especially true now, given that much of the developed world is in the midst of a painful recession. The US, for one, will not accept ceilings that reduce its greenhouse-gas emissions significantly if it means accepting higher costs and taxes that risk slowing economic recovery.
Developing countries are, if anything, even more opposed to such ceilings or “caps.” Four hundred million Indians still lack electricity; India cannot be expected to rule out greater use of coal if that proves to be the best way to produce electricity for one-third of its citizens. China, too, is unlikely to agree to “caps” on emissions of any kind given the relatively low standard of living of most Chinese. But such a stance dooms prospects for a new global treaty, as developed countries will rightly insist that poorer countries be part of the solution.
The consequences of failure in Copenhagen could be considerable. In the short run, we may well see climate-related concerns become the newest excuse for increased trade protectionism. So-called “carbon tariffs” are likely to be introduced to penalize imports from countries or companies deemed not to be doing enough to curb emissions. World trade is already down sharply as a result of the economic crisis; introducing new tariffs would reduce trade further, causing the loss of additional jobs and leading to new frictions.
Over time, a failure to reduce greenhouse gas emissions would lead to additional climate change, which in turn would increase the severity of poverty, the scale of internal displacement and migration, the scarcity of water, the prevalence of disease and the number and intensity of storms. The result could be more failed states and more conflict between states. Climate change is as much a matter of security as it is an economic and human concern.
So what should be done? The most important step for those preparing for Copenhagen is to embrace national policies that increase energy efficiency and reduce greenhouse-gas emissions. The US has at long last done some of this in adopting new and much higher standards for automobile fuel efficiency. Regulatory policy can increase the efficiency of appliances, housing and machinery. Such reforms should appeal to rich and poor countries alike, as they would reduce spending on energy and dependence on oil imports.
Coordinated national actions are not the same as unilateralism. There is no unilateral answer to what is a global challenge. But to describe a challenge as global is not to argue that the remedy is to be found only in an ambitious, formal and universal treaty.
Such an accord might well be desirable, but it is simply not an option for climate change any time soon. The goal for the representatives of the nearly 200 countries who will meet in Copenhagen should not be a single sweeping agreement so much as a set of more modest agreements.
Coal is one place to begin, as it will continue to generate the lion’s share of the world’s electricity for decades to come. Greater sharing of existing cleaner-coal technologies is needed, as is continued development of next-generation clean-coal plants.
Nuclear power is another area requiring attention. So, too, are renewable forms of power, such as solar and wind. Here, too, mechanisms are needed for sharing new technologies and helping poorer countries pay for them in exchange for adopting policies that reduce greenhouse-gas emissions.
Moreover, stopping the destruction of forests is essential, given how much carbon is trapped in them. One objective for Copenhagen should be to create a well-endowed global fund to support policies that discourage the cutting and burning of trees, help countries such as Brazil and Indonesia protect their rainforests, and provide alternative livelihoods to those who currently benefit from destroying them.
Focusing on steps such as these would go a long way toward attaining the often-discussed goal of halving global carbon emissions by mid-century.
But reaching an accord that sets binding ceilings for what each country will be allowed to emit is not an option in Copenhagen. The consensus simply does not exist.
Smaller steps, however, can and should be taken.
Those who want to master the challenge of climate change now will reject such realism. But, as is often the case, those who insist on getting everything risk getting nothing.
Richard N. Haass is president of the Council on Foreign Relations and author of War of Necessity, War of Choice: A Memoir of Two Iraq Wars.
COPYRIGHT: PROJECT SYNDICATE
Taiwan’s semiconductor industry gives it a strategic advantage, but that advantage would be threatened as the US seeks to end Taiwan’s monopoly in the industry and as China grows more assertive, analysts said at a security dialogue last week. While the semiconductor industry is Taiwan’s “silicon shield,” its dominance has been seen by some in the US as “a monopoly,” South Korea’s Sungkyunkwan University academic Kwon Seok-joon said at an event held by the Center for Strategic and International Studies. In addition, Taiwan lacks sufficient energy sources and is vulnerable to natural disasters and geopolitical threats from China, he said.
After reading the article by Hideki Nagayama [English version on same page] published in the Liberty Times (sister newspaper of the Taipei Times) on Wednesday, I decided to write this article in hopes of ever so slightly easing my depression. In August, I visited the National Museum of Ethnology in Osaka, Japan, to attend a seminar. While there, I had the chance to look at the museum’s collections. I felt extreme annoyance at seeing that the museum had classified Taiwanese indigenous peoples as part of China’s ethnic minorities. I kept thinking about how I could make this known, but after returning
What value does the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) hold in Taiwan? One might say that it is to defend — or at the very least, maintain — truly “blue” qualities. To be truly “blue” — without impurities, rejecting any “red” influence — is to uphold the ideology consistent with that on which the Republic of China (ROC) was established. The KMT would likely not object to this notion. However, if the current generation of KMT political elites do not understand what it means to be “blue” — or even light blue — their knowledge and bravery are far too lacking
Taipei’s population is estimated to drop below 2.5 million by the end of this month — the only city among the nation’s six special municipalities that has more people moving out than moving in this year. A city that is classified as a special municipality can have three deputy mayors if it has a population of more than 2.5 million people, Article 55 of the Local Government Act (地方制度法) states. To counter the capital’s shrinking population, Taipei Mayor Chiang Wan-an (蔣萬安) held a cross-departmental population policy committee meeting on Wednesday last week to discuss possible solutions. According to Taipei City Government data, Taipei’s