For most people, life has not improved during the first year of Ma Ying-jeou’s (馬英九) presidency. On the contrary, things are going from bad to worse.
But judging by the way they keep lauding their achievements, government officials seem to think they have done quite a good job. In reality, they have been throwing away Taiwan’s sovereignty with their “diplomatic truce” and kowtowing to China.
That doesn’t stop them from saying that in one year they have made up for eight wasted years under the previous administration, nor does it keep them from claiming they have not made any big mistakes.
The economy is in recession with no sign of recovery. During his election campaign, Ma promised voters 6 percent annual economic growth, average per capita GDP of US$30,000 and an unemployment rate of below 3 percent — the “6-3-3” economic policy. His promises have fallen flat, but he has not seen fit to apologize.
On the contrary, Ma proudly points to the recent stock market upturn, declaring: “We can now feel confidence gradually returning.”
He thinks he can make the public feel better by saying he can see the light at the end of the tunnel and that, though we will have to struggle through tough times for a while, things will improve considerably in the third and fourth quarters of this year.
His government threw out a few goodies to prompt a rise in the TAIEX and create the impression that shareholders were celebrating his first year of his presidency.
Although the stock index only rose a little, it was enough for the government to boast that it had bucked forecasts that the index would fall on the anniversary of Ma’s inauguration. Besides, rising stock market indices are a worldwide trend at the moment, so Taiwan’s performance is no special achievement.
The government has by no means “made up for eight lost years,” as Ma claims. On the contrary, it has a very unfavorable record, with negative economic growth and record-high unemployment.
Whoever governs Taiwan next could hardly do worse than this government has. Its dismal record is not only without precedent — it is not likely to be repeated, either.
Surely a government whose performance is so dismal that 800,000 people take to the streets in protest should issue a public apology and reflect on its mistakes.
Not this government.
While Ma and his colleagues celebrate the rise in share prices, they have no idea how to improve the country’s economic fundamentals.
The Ma government is kidding the public if it claims this rise as proof of its own political abilities.
Most economists around the world do not foresee an upturn in the global economy in the near future.
Why, then, have stock markets been on the rebound? The force pushing them upward is the availability of funds, rather than any fundamental improvement.
Governments around the world have been trying to salvage their economies and prop up financial markets by pouring in massive amounts of capital. It is still too early to tell whether the economy can be turned around in this way.
The fact is that markets have been inundated with funds, while interest rates are at record lows. As a result, funds have been flowing into stock markets, money markets and real estate in search of better profits. As a result, there is a trend for stock indices to rise, and Taiwan’s financial markets have warmed up along with the rest.
Within half a year of Ma taking office, the TAIEX tumbled from more than 9,000 points to a little more than 3,900. In other words, although the TAIEX has risen from last year’s low of 3,900 points to the current 6,500 or so, investors have still incurred heavy losses.
One indicator of how feeble the economy is comes from the Lausanne International Institute for Management Development. In its recently released IMD World Competitiveness Yearbook 2009: Taiwan’s competitive ranking has slipped 10 places from 13 last year to 23 this year.
Similarly, Standard & Poor’s Ratings Services warned in a recent report that if the recession continues, Taiwan’s sovereign credit rating could be downgraded by as much as five levels.
Ma’s prediction that the economy may improve markedly in the third and fourth quarters is misleading. That is because economic growth rates are usually calculated year-on-year.
Taiwan’s economy shrank 1 percent year-on-year in the third quarter last year and 8.4 percent in the fourth.
Starting from such low base periods, it should not be hard to get a positive year-on-year growth figure for the same periods this year.
The fact that there has been no improvement in Taiwan’s economic fundamentals during Ma’s term hasn’t stopped him and his ministers from trying to use the recent rise to improve Ma’s approval rating.
Loyal hack media are there to help and have recently published a string of opinion polls showing a big rise in public satisfaction with Ma’s economic performance.
It appears that Ma and his team’s main purpose is to get better approval ratings.
If the economy were really improving, the public would regain its confidence, businesses would expand investment and take on workers and employment figures would show a big improvement as a result.
Ma and his team even have the gall to criticize the preceding administration, whose performance was clearly much better, as having presided over “eight lost years.” It is a misfortune to have such a shameless government. Worse still, it is going to rule over us for at least three more years.
TRANSLATED BY JULIAN CLEGG
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