Tomorrow there’s a couple of large-ish protests in Taipei and Kaohsiung, in case you hadn’t heard. The kind that foreign missions warn could turn violent.
But my FOB (fresh off the BlackBerry) readers needn’t worry.
Take the get-together in Taipei: It’s a Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) rally, which means you get lots of old folk — even older than me — bussing in from the south together with their great grandchildren and maybe the odd local DPP rep to help carry and replenish their protest kit (bottled water, bamboo hat, boxes of betel nut and biandang).
You do get families going to these things, sometimes with their pets draped in the appropriate political colors. And a few youngsters turn up with the latest English-language propaganda puns on colored cardboard, wacky wigs, papier mache effigies and other creative objects of derision.
More pep squad than riotous mob.
The reason for this mobilization of the masses is the DPP thinks the first anniversary of President Ma Ying-jeou’s (馬英九) ascent to office is the best time to rally its base and appeal to the disaffected who strayed from the party over the years.
I don’t think it will be very successful.
Right now there are two things that might get people marching: fears for national security and the state of the economy.
The former is a nasty paradox for the DPP. The prez is doing just about everything he can to prove that not only is detente with China lucrative in harsh economic times, but that it’s also a triumph of diplomatic strategy.
At the same time, warnings from the DPP and more radical elements on the growing military and political threat are anchored in the realm of the abstract, and will continue to be until there is a dramatic series of incidents that demonstrate China’s callousness toward ordinary people. Give Beijing credit: These days it is doing everything a Chicom can possibly do to avoid the appearance of obnoxiousness.
That leaves the economy. Rising joblessness is a powerful weapon for any opposition party, but the DPP is buggered by its longstanding indifference — if not outright suspicion — toward organized labor. It’s tough feigning outrage over forced leave or claiming you sympathize with the plight of the unemployed and the working poor when “defend labor rights” is at the bottom of your lengthy to-do list (between “clean the fridge” and “keep in touch with the Americans”).
So don’t expect to see subgroups of pissed-off jobless dudes arming themselves with sticks and stones tomorrow in preparation for an all-nighter with riot police. Said dudes are probably back home, surfing the Internet, listening to Rainie Yang (楊丞琳) on their iPods, swaying to the music, looking up Web sites for trendy labor brokers with names like “111111111111 Job Bank” and “2468 We Hire You Cut Rate” and thinking that they’re just one click away from a prosperous future.
Even the illegal 24-hour sit-in that will follow the rally is turning out to be a fizzer. It’s got Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) politicians so frantic that they’re grilling bureaucrats over the adequacy of traffic diversions.
If you want something resembling a riot in this town, you need a flesh and blood target that brings out the fanatical type. He also has to be a gormless Chicom with god-awful hair.
I could be wrong. Tomorrow might bring something dramatic and paradigm-busting. But that would require divine intervention, and the last time I looked, Taiwan’s resident Bodhisattvas all had KMT membership.
Whatever happens, dear reader, the government will continue along its course, and China has the DPP’s number. Small steps, not threats, is the name of the game. Add a former president in jail while on perpetual showtrial and ludicrous DPP infighting and even the Taiwanese patriots are rushing for the exits.
So, if DPP rallies won’t make a difference; if the DPP is a long, long way away from winning elections that matter; if the central and key city/county governments and the military are full of pro-China elements (not to mention spies); if the Ministry of National Defense thinks that the prospect of street battles across Taiwan is a greater deterrent to China than strength in the skies and on the seas; if the wife of the secretary-general of the National Security Council moonlights as a door-to-door saleswoman in Crazyland; if think tank land in the US and ivory-towered academia everywhere else parrot the line that Talking is Terrific and Business is Best; if Taiwan’s most effective mobilizer of youth is a KMT-friendly Mainlander criminal gang; and if the international media focus on Ma’s cross-strait “breakthroughs” and ignore what his Cabinet and party strategists are doing to the body politic; then what is there left between us and annexation?
The US government?
’Fraid not. True, there’s no shortage of State Department hacks who would rather see Taiwan drawn and quartered and be done with it. Yet the words of their more circumspect colleagues in the bureaucracy and the military are no less true: If Taiwan isn’t smart or mature enough to look after its own interests while heeding the needs of its one relevant ally, no amount of US aid will make a difference, and you can kiss your democratic ass goodbye.
(Even so, we could have done without the American Institute in Taiwan hanging a “Mission Accomplished” banner across its building when Ma was elected president. Or did I dream that?)
No, dear reader. The thing that finally stands between us and the Chicoms is ... China.
Big increases in trade and tourism are fine and dandy, but even Taiwan’s most besotted Sinofellators are struggling to explain how ramped-up police oppression, an explosion in corruption, a rise in ethnic tensions, the establishment of a collaborationist provincial government, a general collapse in morale and probable civil conflict will benefit anyone. The solution? Don’t talk about it.
The problem is, with the way things are going, we will end up in that morass one way or another.
In the meantime, China continues with its soft-power soft sell. Our very own Taipei Times reported this week that Taiwan is considering an exchange of police representatives with China, which might see Chicom cops walking the streets of Taipei in an official capacity. Seriously.
Obviously, with the need for a large security detail and inevitable angst over these officials’ powers, there’s a potential public relations problem. So, I suggest that the Chinese appoint Jackie Chan (成龍) as honorary head of the agency.
OK, so lately Jackie has been putting his foot in it by saying that Taiwanese, Singaporeans, Hongkies and Chinese in general lack manners and need to be told what to do. But if he were posted to Taipei, allowed the option of wearing full dress uniform or a tracksuit and really put his mind to it, he could charm even his enemies and clear the way for a wider Chicom presence in my beloved country.
He could even make a movie out of it, including scenes in the tradition of Rumble in the Bronx of good ol’ Jackie inviting hotheads to sit down, drink tea and listen to him croon Sincere Hero (真心英雄). Call it Police Story 5: Supercop Brings Nipponized Taike Bumpkins to Heel.
You got a problem with that? You doth protest too much, methinks.
Got something to tell Johnny? Get it off your chest: Write to dearjohnny@taipeitimes.com, but put “Dear Johnny” in the subject line or he’ll mark your bouquets and brickbats as spam.
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