Tue, May 05, 2009 page8

• PRC-US ties are not so impeccable

  • By Mark Valencia　
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  The harassment of the USNS Impeccable by five small Chinese vessels in March supposedly resulted from different interpretations of international law. But more fundamentally it underscored the continued tension over Taiwan and the lack of transparency and trust in US-China relations. In subsequent Congressional hearings, US National Intelligence Director Dennis Blair told Congress that “preparations for a Taiwan conflict” still drive the modernization goals of the Chinese military and that the recent naval incident was part of a plan by Beijing to expand its influence.

  Given the uncertainty regarding intent, such incidents are likely to increase in frequency and intensity if the two rivals can not develop a modus operandi to deal with their differences.

  China and the US made an agreement in 1998 regarding military consultations for the very purpose of avoiding such misunderstandings and confrontations. However China froze such exchanges last October in retaliation for a US$6.5 billion weapons sale by Washington to Taiwan. Even though talks resumed in February, the Chinese side was quoted as saying: “Contacts will remain tenuous unless the US removes remaining obstacles to improvement.”

  Adding to the tension in US-China relations, President Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九) recently urged the US “not to hesitate” on sensitive arms sale to Taiwan.

  “We need high-performance jet fighters to replace our aging F-5s and other unsophisticated arms,” he said.

  He was referring to Taipei’s repeated requests for F-16C/Ds from Washington, which has been dragging its feet because of pressure from China.

  In the Impeccable incident, according to the Pentagon, “five Chinese vessels shadowed and aggressively maneuvered in dangerously close proximity to USNS Impeccable, in apparent co-ordinated effort to harass the US ocean surveillance ship while it was conducting routine operations in international waters.”

  Pentagon spokesman Stewart Upton said “Chinese ships and aircraft routinely steam or fly near US navy ships in this area. However these actions [regarding the Impeccable] were considerably more aggressive and unprofessional than we have seen, and greatly increased the risk of collision or miscalculation.”

  The mission of the Impeccable is to use both passive and active low frequency sonar arrays to enable detection and tracking of long range undersea threats including submarines. China argues that the collection of such data is a “hostile act” and a “preparation of the battle field” and thus a threat to use force — a violation of the UN Charter and certainly not a peaceful use of the ocean. The US argues that its data gathering is purely defensive and that such “spying” is not a threat to use force.

  Each has legal arguments to back up its position. But the confrontation in waters 120km south of Hainan was not really about the finer points of international law. Rather it was about mutual distrust stemming from China’s military expansion and aggressive US actions to monitor this growing Chinese “threat” so that it can be neutralized if needs be.

  Beijing’s main military concern is Taiwan’s relationship with China. The problem is that the US supports Taiwan’s defense with arms sales. Adding fuel to the fire, some Taiwanese strongly advocate open independence, and at times China has threatened Taiwan with violence. But relations have improved since the election last year of Ma as president, who rejects any notion of declaring independence.

  On March 25, the Pentagon released a study that said the Chinese government was seeking weapons and technology to disrupt the traditional advantages of the US military, and that Chinese military secrecy could lead to a miscalculation or conflict between the nations.

  The report said a main goal of China’s military buildup is to have sufficient forces on hand in the event of war across the Taiwan Strait. A study published by the American Enterprise Institute in January said: “The minimal aim of American strategy must remain what it has been for the past century: to preclude the domination of Asia by any single power or coalition of hostile powers. This is necessary to prevent others from threatening our security and prosperity through any attempts to control the region’s resources, form exclusive economic blocs, or deny our physical access to and through Asia.”

  China is currently no match militarily for the US in an all out conflict. However, there may come a day when it is — and the US is taking no chances. It is particularly concerned with China’s fleet of submarines. In the last decade China has acquired 12 Russian kilo-class subs and built two new types of nuclear-powered subs by itself — the Jin class which carries ballistic missiles, and the Shan class attack subs.

  China plans to build at least five Jin-class ballistic missile submarines so that like the US it can have a near-continuous nuclear presence at sea.

  China has recently built a submarine base at Yulin on Hainan with 11 submerged tunnel openings to accommodate its new subs, hence the US concern and focus on the Hainan area.

  Instead of simply surveying the ocean bottom to aid in the future navigation of its own submarines and detection of underwater threats, the Impeccable was probably tracking Chinese submarines.

  Indeed it may have been trying to determine at what distance it could detect the subs exiting the Yulin base. It was also likely mapping the navigational channels emanating from Yulin to facilitate targeting in case it one day becomes necessary to bottle them up.

  Because China does not have a similar capability to monitor the US fleet and the ocean bottom off its submarine ports, this incident embarrassed the Chinese navy, hence the strong reaction.

  The aftermath of the incident was initially rather disturbing for US-China relations. US officials lodged formal protests with the Chinese foreign ministry and the Chinese embassy in Washington and dispatched a guided missile destroyer to escort the Impeccable. The protests were promptly rejected in no uncertain terms by the Chinese foreign ministry.

  “The US claims are gravely in contravention of the facts and confuse black and white, and they are totally unacceptable to China” People’s Liberation Army Navy spokesman Ma Zhaoxu (馬朝旭) said.

  Commander-in-Chief of the US Pacific Command Admiral Timothy Keating told the Senate Armed Services Committee that the Chinese had “behaved in an aggressive and troublesome manner” and “are not willing to abide by acceptable standards of behavior.”

  He added that China’s actions were “unlawful and dangerous.”

  US conservatives used the occasion to re-emphasize the China threat.

  However it appears that cooler heads prevailed — beginning with US President Barack Obama.

  He “stressed the importance of raising the level and frequency of the US-China military to military dialogue in order to avoid future incidents.”

  US Secretary of Defense Robert Gates said he did not think China was trying to prevent the US Navy from operating in the South China Sea, and he did not see a need for armed escorts.

  US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton told reporters after her meeting with Chinese Foreign Minister Yang Jiechi (楊潔箎): “We both agreed that we should work to ensure that such incidents do not happen again.”

  Meanwhile, China announced that “top commanders do not have plans to increase the military presence in the South China Sea.”

  Some interpreted the aftermath of the incident as a backdown by China but this conclusion may be premature. The plain fact is that now is not the time for either party to expand this incident. The US and China are deeply interdependent in trade and financial flow and need to work together to mitigate the current economic crisis.

  There may be room for a tacit compromise. Perhaps the Obama administration would be willing to modify some of its procedures — particularly regarding the more aggressive tracking and targeting of China’s submarines. China might in turn allow some collection of hydrographic information by US naval vessels in its Exclusive Economic Zones (EEZ). The latter could actually be in China’s interest because as it expands its capabilities it will increasingly need to collect similar information in other countries’ EEZs, particularly Japan’s. Indeed it already does so.

  Perhaps an agreement on incidents at sea could mitigate actual confrontations. But even if such an accord were reachable, it would not address the fundamental US-China relations issue of Taiwan.

  Mark Valencia is a visiting senior fellow at the Maritime Institute of Malaysia.
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